Category Archives: Colorado Springs Real Estate

Jay Epperson’s Pick Your Neighbor Campaign: 10% appreciation in six months

My buddy Jay Epperson with Re/Max Cherry Creek in Denver is working a “Pick Your Neighbor” Campaign with his database and farm, which means the good folks of Stapleton and east Denver are being enlisted to help find homes for sale.

Think back two years ago, and would you have thought the market would come to this? In an era of 12-year low inventory and even national pending sales that are approaching what they were in the peak of the First-Time Buyer Tax Stimulus, the market is seeing a major-league squeeze. These are just my metrics, but the last five contracts I’ve written, either listing or buy side, have all involved properties on the market less than 48 hours.

Less than 48 hours.

Jay sent me a referral and I did a market analysis for this seller last August. Now they’re ready to go.

Take a look in the Buying Pattern difference between 2011 and 2012. I could tell last August the market was flipping upward, but I didn’t anticipate that prices would rise 10%… in just six months.

A lot sold in 2011, but note the gravity for sales around $170,000

A lot sold in 2011, but note the gravity for sales around $170,000

Fewer homes sold in 2012, and the squeeze drove prices up: look how many around $200,000

Fewer homes sold in 2012, and the squeeze drove prices up: look how many around $200,000

Oh yeah, average market time was cut in half year over year and within that market time, five of the 8 sales last year sold in less than 51 days, or 1/3rd of the average homes were taking to sell-thru in 2011.

Six months, $20K in appreciation.

This will be fun to explain to the appraiser.

 

The Stat Pack, February Part 3: Neighborhood of the Month, Kissing Camels

The Stat Pack, January 2013: What’s Squeezing the Market?

We don’t believe in silver bullets. It’s why cable news doesn’t work well for us. Things don’t get easily distilled down into one minute 15 second soundbites of information.

We also believe that to really understand something, you have to do two things:
1.) Have a regular practice, and in real estate market reports, that means a somewhat religious consistency to doing the same data each and every month. It’s in exercises like these that patterns are best seen and understood.
2.) Thoughtful analysis comes from good questions. There are such things as dumb questions. But a bigger problem is taking things at face value. Prices are up. Supply is down. Demand is up. Contracts are up a lot. Well… why is all that happening?

As we change The Stat Pack this year into a blog format, this is our monthly second installment, on the theme of, “why’s that happening?” This month: What’s Squeezing the Market?

The Stat Pack, January 2013

Greenshoots 2013: Western Colorado Springs (Both WES & OCC)

The goal was to get this done before the Super Bowl, and here we are: Western Colorado Springs, eight hours before kickoff.

Go Pepsi. I hate both teams.

Western Colorado Springs is always a hard one to get a finger on. The older a home is, the harder it is to price. The newer it is, the fewer generations of improvements have been made, theoretically the conformity should be tighter, the pricing more predictable (see Newport Heights and Stetson Hills for vivid examples of this effect). So make the homes 30 to 60 years old, put them near these big rock formations and a bunch of cool bars and restaurants, add in mountain bikes and walkability with predictable traffic patterns (like, none) and you get Old Colorado City and West MLS areas.

OLD COLORADO CITY was divided into three groups. We did not include areas south of Highway 24 primarily because of lack of data and variances due to new construction in Gold Hill Mesa. The three groups were pretty simple geographically: East of 8th Street; between 8th and 21st; west of 21st to 30th. Highway 24 was the southern boundary.

OCC east of 8th: this was the largest price elasticity we saw during this project. There was one occasion of a homes of similar size selling at 3 times the difference in price and numerous examples of homes similarly sized selling for 2 times the price of their peers. The area didn’t sell terribly well due to a high failure rate, but almost 40% of the homes sold in less than 30 days. 

OCC East of 8th Scattergram OCC East of 8th Neighborhood Patterns OCC East of 8th Buying Patterns OCC East of 8th Time to Sell

OCC between 8th and 21st: While the extreme fluctuations in pricing were less in this area, prices tended to be higher, and more “consistently inconsistent” with widespread variety in pricing.

OCC between 8th and 21st Scattergram OCC between 8th and 21st Neighborhood Patterns OCC between 8th and 21st Buying Patterns OCC between 8th and 21st Time to Sell

OCC between 21st and 30th: this is the stretch that we think has the most opportunity for investors looking to make short-term profits and for those looking to make a long-term buy-and-hold profit. The reason is walkability. This is the only section of Colorado Springs that will regularly score 75 or above on Walkscore.com. Not everyone wants that benefit. But given how scarce it is, we venture that there are far more that do want it, then the city offers. Add to that our little example of sizes of homes all selling from $173,000 to $175,000 in the last six months, and the investment merits of this area start to really shine.

OCC Between 21st and 30th Scattergram OCC Between 21st and 30th Neighborhood Patterns OCC Between 21st and 30th Time to Sell OCC Between 21st and 30th Buying Patterns

WEST (WES)

We wanted to add Roswell to this report along I-25, but it’s too bloody hard. The mapping is weird and the pockets of it are so many we did not feel that it would could be described by something as scientifically rigid as these graphs. So it was omitted as too difficult. Chelsea Glen was also omitted, although that was probably a mistake, because we included Canyon View and there were half as many sales in there this year as Chelsea Glen (which had a good year). So there, that we made a mistake and forgot one. Damn. The big three areas are all here: Pleasant Valley (and the mesa above); Holland Park; and the creme de la creme Kissing Camels.

Pleasant Valley: We’ll tell you something most other real estate websites won’t: if you want a really good home in Pleasant Valley, it’s probably a for-sale-by-owner purchase. We know, because we had one buyer offer on six different For-Sale-by-Owner properties last year, before they struck gold on number seven. It also means that we trust this data only partially. We know factually that a great number of sales happened in this area outside the MLS in 2012.

Pleasant Valley Scattergram Pleasant Valley Neighborhood Patterns Pleasant Valley Buying Patterns Pleasant Valley Time to Sell

Holland Park: Most of Holland Park’s sales were under $200,000 and most of the failed-to-sells were over $200,000 making this market somewhat predictable for the westside. Probability of sale was around average for the city, but it ended strong, with half of the available inventory at year’s end spoken for by contract.

Holland Park Scattergram Holland Park Holland Park Buying Patterns Holland Park Time to Sell

Kissing Camels: Prices did not have a good year in Kissing Camels with the average sale at $665,000, down from the upper $900′s a few years ago; but then, many of those fantastic mansions on the greens aren’t even for sale, so it’s not exactly an apples for apples comparison. It is notable how strong the market was between $550,000 and $800,000, and Cathedral Ridge now has dirt moving again. Kissing Camels Scattergram Kissing Camels Neighborhood Patterns Kissing Camels Time to Sell Kissing Camels Buying Patterns

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

Greenshoots 2013: Eastern Colorado Springs (EAS)

Eastern Colorado Springs is nearly as large as it’s northerly brother, N/E. This is also an area where we will admit to editorializing a bit what areas we included. We have seven neighborhoods documented here, and perhaps most other REALTORS would put St. Andrews or Rustic Hills in the mix, but truthfully: we never show in either area. For some reason, our buyers just don’t match up. Correspondingly, we are sharing where our buyers look for property.

Audubon: Like some of the neighborhoods in Briargate and Northeast, there was a multi-market effect in Audubon, with three different markets operating here: there was a remodeled market, an average, tidy condition market, and a below market-quality but “good enough floorplan and lot to work on it” market. Persistent appreciation can be seen in the seasonal buying pattern.

Audobon Scattergram Audobon Neighborhood Patterns Audobon Buying Patterns Audobon Time to Sell

Country Club: some of the largest variances in price can be found in Country Club, an area that backs up to the golf course, Palmer Park… and Circle Drive. This is an area with a lot of variables. Considering that the price was well-above average for the MLS area, the probability of sale, while lower than the MLS, was pretty respectable.

Country Club Scattergram Country Club Neighborhood Patterns Country Club Buying Patterns Country Club Time to Sell

East of Wasson (Century Heights): the only real difference between Audubon and Century Heights, other than proximity to Circle Drive (this area is east of Circle) was that there was sightly more elasticity in pricing in this area with values tending to sell at a slightly larger premium above the predicted “average” price in the trendline. Why that’s so interesting: the average price was actually $10,000 less in Century Heights, but there were similar “comps” in both areas showing a likely interchange with buyers. The probability of sale and seasonality of buying patterns was also pretty similar.

East of Wasson Scattergram East of Wasson Neighborhood Patterns East of Wasson Buying Patterns East of Wasson Time to Sell

Homestead: Two markets, again: a market for homes that have been improved; and a market for homes worth-improving.

Homestead Scattergram Homestead Neighborhood Patterns Homestead Buying Patterns Homestead time to sell

Old Farm: The Time to Sell Pattern shows an interesting anomaly about Old Farm: almost all of the sales were between $180,000 and $225,000, a pretty tight little ballpark of price. However, there were three outliers in price. So even within pretty well-defined areas, there are exceptions.

Old Farm Scattergram Old Farm Neighborhood Patterns Old Farm time to Sell Old Farm Buying Patterns

Villa Loma: this area actually bucks many of the pricing regularity trends seen in Homestead and Old Farm because pricing is much more stratified: the median price was almost 10% lower than the average price, but then there were a cluster of sales around $180,000 and another cluster around $200,000 to $225,000, and then a few more above that. The Scattergram shows the larger homes actually breaking further away from the predicted trendline price showing buyers willing to pay a premium to get both square footage and high-quality.

Villa Loma Scattergram Villa Loma Neighborhood Patterns Villa Loma Buying Patterns Villa Loma Time to Sell

Village Seven: The same trend in Villa Loma was mirrored in Village Seven. For example: in October, there was a sale at $150,000 and another at $360,000, and at least one sale in each $50,000 bracket in-between. It’s not just like there are outliers… there is a wider variety of pricing than in previous years.

Village Seven Scattergram Village Seven Neighborhood Patterns Village Seven Buying Patterns Village Seven Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Greenshoots 2013: Northeast Colorado Springs

Within the city limits, on the big MLS map hanging on the office wall, is this big, giant area with rooftops. Northeast Colorado Springs (N/E) is a monster of an area, with a everything from inexpensive fixer uppers to the occasional million dollar mansion on the rim of University Park. Quite literally, it also has everything in-between.

We had some interesting discoveries this year in looking at N/E. Some of the most regular and easily predicted pricing is found here (Newport Heights), but also, there are fantastic pockets of opportunity. Let’s be honest, people are starting to get excited about real estate again, and by excited, we mean “making money.” The risk of flipping a home is still pretty significant, but Northeast has the prime spot: a four bedroom, two-car garage home in Vista Grande east of Union. The 100% price variance we saw in these areas on multiple occasions indicates that there are ample numbers of distressed homes selling at severe discounts, and a marketplace ready to buy turnkey quality. Since these are closed sales, too, it usually means that they’ll pass muster on appraisal. We also saw inventory levels at the start of the year at less than 40 days, a market time 80% faster than the already quick PPAR market.

This is the single largest blog post of the bunch due to the sheer volume of neighborhoods. We’ll start with the District 20 outlier in Northeast, Woodland Hills. All other neighborhoods are in Colorado Springs School District 11.

Woodland Hills (ACADEMY D20 SCHOOLS): Very regular pricing with an improved, turnkey market making up 2/3rds of the sales. Very high probability of sale.

Woodland Hills Neighborhood Patterns Woodland Hills Scattergram Woodland Hills Buying Patterns Woodland Hills Time to Sell

Colorado Springs District 11 N/E

Canyon View: this is an example of an area where the project exceeded the data. There isn’t much data – at all – to report on in Canyon View. Talk amongst yourselves…

CV Scattergram CV Neighborhood Patterns CV Buying Patterns

CV Time to Sell

Deliverance: because there were fewer sales, the two-market effect (turnkey; needs a lot of work) was less visible, but it’s still present in Deliverance.

Deliverance Scattergram Deliverance Neighborhood Patterns Deliverance Time to Sell Deliverance Buying Patterns

Erindale & Pulpit Rock: The numbers here say “stay away” because the average sales price was only $15,000 higher than the city, yet the probability of sale was 22% lower and an 8 month supply of housing that’s nearly double the city average. If nothing is selling, is that a smart investment? Unpacking the riddle, 2012 saw some crazy houses for sale in this area, and speaking individually, I got to show my first six-level home ever last year in here. There usually isn’t a market for that many stairs (or in that REO house’s case, pet urine), but that accounts for the much higher than normal failed-to-sell rate in 2012: weird, overpriced houses. The reality is, we’re pretty bullish on this area because the prices seem way too low for what you get (open space; healthy Ponderosa; views) and there’s a new twist: Dublin is now open through to Nevada. We think that’s a game-changer on this neighborhood, making it almost like an inexpensive westside enclave with the retail conveniences of Northeast. True to form, the year ended with a blitz in here, and while the graphic software is reporting 18 for sale, eight of those are spoken for and are actually pending-sale. That means the inventory is actually a normal 4.5 months based on sales rate.

Erindale and Pulpit Rock Scattergram Erindale and Pulpit Rock Neighborhood Patterns Erindale and Pulpit Rock Time to Sell Erindale and Pulpit Rock Buying Patterns

Greencrest: sold at a slower pace, but still commanded a pretty decent price.

Greencrest Scattergram Greencrest Neighborhood Patterns Greencrest Buying Patterns Greencrest Time to Sell

Garden Ranch: Garden Ranch is an area we spent a lot of time in during 2012, and it’s a superb example of the changing market. There are some huge lots in this area, surprise open spaces, and access into Palmer Park underneath Austin Bluffs. Oh… and it’s cheap compared to other parts of the city. The back end of Flintridge is a quiet little oasis. Savvy consumers figured this out, and it sold better than most other areas and embodied the “two market” effect we’ve seen in other places, with consistent pricing for improved turn-key properties and more scattered, inconsistent pricing for those needing a lot of work. Of special note: demand has been so great of late, inventory levels were at one month at the start of 2013.

Garden Ranch Scattergram Garden Ranch Neighborhood Patterns Garden Ranch Time to Sell Garden Ranch Buying Patterns

Newport Heights: Don’t bother arguing with an appraiser in Newport Heights. Pricing couldn’t be tidier or more associated with square footage. But it’s selling well, with a single home for sale at the start of the year (calculated as 20 days of inventory!).

Newport Heights Scattergram Newport Heights Neighborhood Buying Patterns Newport Heights Buying Pattern Newport Heights Time to Sell

Northwind: Northwind had an interesting pricing pattern that was highly regular… until $250,000. Then a single home sold way above the curve. Another very popular year-end area, with a mere month of available inventory.

Northwind Scattergram Northwind Neighborhood Patterns Northwind Buying Patterns Northwind Time to Sell

Park Vista: Park Vista is just to the northeast of Southern Vista Grande, but totally different, on half acre, county-zoned lots. With in-city, country-living and some big views, the area started to experience a Renaissance in 2012. Kind of fun: list your house for sale in May in here, because nothing happens until then, and it’s usually all over by Labor Day. See Buying Pattern. 

Park Vista Scattergram Park Vista Neighborhood Patterns Park Vista Buying Patterns Park Vista Time to Sell

Saddle Rock: Like many of the view-areas throughout Colorado Springs, Saddle Rock has custom homes and custom prices. Price is much more associated with lot and view and quality of house than simple square footage. 

Saddle Rock Scattergram Saddle Rock Neighborhood Patterns Saddle Rock Buying Patterns Saddle Rock Time to Sell

Sunset Ridge & Vista Mesa: this was the best selling area in Colorado Springs for homes in the upper $200,000′s. Consumers tended to prefer – significantly – homes with finished basements, showing a willingness to pay a premium for finished square footage.

Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Scattergram Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Neighborhood Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Buying Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Time to Sell

University Park: University Park had a similar probability of sale as neighboring Erindale, but an average price 80% higher. Wild price elasticity was exhibited here, a correlation again to views and house quality. Yet intriguingly, there was a large cluster of sales activity around the average pricepoint in the mid-$400,000′s; that’s unusual in a custom area, where prices tend to be more scattershot.

University Park Scattergram University Park Neighborhood Patterns University Park Time to Sell University Park Buying Patterns

Vista Grande. Technically Vista Grande is broken up into sub neighborhoods, but in the MLS descrition field, it usually just goes by “Vista Grande.” This presents an analytical and graphing challenge, so we had to break it into three different areas, somewhat arbitrarily: Southern Vista Grande, Eastern Vista Grande and Western Vista Grande. Southern Vista Grande is around Russell Middle School to Austin Bluffs and Academy. Eastern Vista Grande is above Russell, along Montebello (but below Saddle Rock) and up north to Deliverance and near Dublin stretching out to Flintridge. Western Vista Grande is west of Union and the newest of the areas. Notably, Southern Vista Grande tends to have one-car garages as frequently as two-car garages, and the other two areas tend to have two-car garages, hence one of the reasons for price (age of home tends to be older further south as well).

Eastern Vista Grande

Eastern Vista Grande Scattergram Eastern Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Southern Vista Grande

Southern Vista Grande Scattergram Southern Neighborhood Patterns Southern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Southern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Western Vista Grande

Western Vista Grande Scattergram Western Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Western Vista Grande Buying Patterns Western Vista Grande Time to Sell

Wagon Trails & Bridle Pass

Wagon Trails Scattergram Wagon Trails Neighborhood Patterns Wagon Trails Buying Patterns Wagon Trails Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Greenshoots 2013: Downtown Colorado Springs

We were selective in the area we are sharing information on in Central (CEN) Colorado Springs. The focus was on areas that we repeatedly show in. This restricted our reporting to five neighborhoods: Old North End, Bonnyville, Patty Jewett, Divine Redeemer, and north of Memorial Park.

Downtown runs counter to much of the Colorado Springs market. As much of the city is suburban, this is one of the only semi-urban areas in the county. As the average age of a dwelling is 1982, most of these homes are pre 1950, and laughably, most of the Old North End was built in 1898 (a banner year for permits! This is some misnomer of history). Last year, the probability of sale was lower in these areas with a considerably number of failed-to-sell listings in some areas. The big “but” in that statement is that good homes, in good shape, with modern updating… started selling for a whole lot more than they did in year’s past, and for quite a bit more in terms of gross dollars.

Old North End: There were only 2, but the $200 a square foot, over $500,000 home returned to downtown last year. The average price was only $440,000, low for Old North End standards, but there was a sharp uptick in transactions over $500,000.

Old North End Scattergram Old North End Buying Pattern Old North End Seasonal Pattern Old North End Time to Sell

Patty Jewett: “Patty” is always a popular place to hunt for homes, but a lot harder to find a good one. That only seems to be increasing with a precious single property for sale the day we ran the reports. Increasingly, we are hearing from buyers that “wish they could find a 3000 square foot home with a garage” in Patty Jewett. An interesting comment for a city that hasn’t seen much gentrification.

Patty Jewett Scattergram Patty Jewett Neighborhood Pattern Patty Jewett Buying Pattern Patty Jewett Time to Sell

Bonnyville: “Pull a price out of the air, and it’ll stick”. Welcome to Bonnyville.

Bonnyville Scattergram Bonnyville Neighborhood Patterns Bonnyville Buying Patterns Bonnyville Time to Sell

Divine Redeemer: Divine Redeemer sold at nearly the same probability as Patty Jewett, but at a lower average sales price than the tiny homes in Bonnyville.

Divine Redeemer Scattergram Divine Redeemer Neighborhood Patterns Divine Redeemer Buying Patterns Divine Redeemer Time to Sell

North of Memorial Park: Note, this is a select ribbon of homes four blocks wide between Boulder and Pikes Peak north of Memorial Park. It’s an area we show and sell in all the time, but it has the craziest price spectrum of any neighborhood in the county.

North of Memorial Park Scattergram North of Memorial Park Neighborhood Pricing North of Memorial Park Buying Pricing North of Memorial Park Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Greenshoots 2013: Powers, PWR MLS Area

Powers is an area characterized by it’s newness. The “old homes” in the area date back to 1994, and with the modern consumer thinking about 10 to 15 years of ownership (ought to put that record-low interest rate to good use), the lure of newer construction is promising. For investors, the same holds. Powers is an area where homes rent well and because the homes are newer, in theory at least, they should have less maintenance. So it’s little surprise to see some of the higher probabilities of sale and large numbers of units sold in these areas.

One very interesting theme we noted: the software used to construct these graphs lumps together our MLS’s U/C (under contract) designation with the active listings. These are properties that are under contract but supposedly are continuing to show to buyers. Well in many areas, we saw the number of under contracts in early January was 2 to 3 times larger than the monthly rate of sale for the area. In other words, 2012 was ending with a bang carrying over into 2013 in many of these MLS areas.

Indigo Ranch: this area consistently produces most of the sales over $300,000 in the Powers area. It’s one of the newest areas, and the homes sell at the highest dollar per square foot in the region.

Indigo Ranch Scattergram Indigo Ranch Neighborhood Pattern Indigo Ranch Buying Pattern Indigo Ranch Time to Sell

 

Ridgeview: One of the newer stretches of Powers, Ridgeview sits to the west of Indigo Ranch. It had more regular pricing than Indigo, but similar probability. Almost comically, the best time of year to sell in Indigo Ranch of Ridgeview? Anytime. They’re always seeing properties move.

Ridgeview Scattergram Ridgeview Neighborhood Patterns Ridgeview Buying Patterns Ridgeview Time to Sell

Stetson Hills was divided into three north-south areas, West, Central and East, with West characterized as West of Charlotte; Central between Charlotte and Peterson; and East, east of Peterson.

West Stetson Hills: a bit of a surprise, this area did not sell as well (probability-wise) as the two Stetson Hill segments further east, or compared to any of the PWR areas. The surprise due to the fact that it was a little less expensive than other areas on average.  

Western Stetson Hills Scattergram Western Stetson Hills Neighborhood Pattern Western Stetson Hills Buying Pattern Western Stetson Hills Time to Sell

Central Stetson Hills

Central Stetson Hills Neighborhood Patterns Central Stetson Hills Scattergram Central Stetson Hills Buying Pattern Central Stetson Hills Time to Sell

East Stetson Hills

Stetson Hills East of Peterson Scattergram Stetson Hills East of Peterson Neighborhood Patterns Stetson Hills East of Peterson Buying Patterns Stetson Hills East of Peterson Time to Sell

 

Springs Ranch was divided into two east-west areas, North Springs Ranch, north of N. Carefree; and South Springs Ranch, south of N. Carefree

North Springs Ranch

Northern Springs Ranch Scattergram Northern Springs Ranch Neighborhood Patterns Northern Springs Ranch Time to Sell Northern Springs Ranch Buying Patterns

South Springs Ranch

Southern Springs Ranch Scattergram Southern Springs Ranch Neighborhood Patterns Southern Springs Ranch Buying Patterns Southern Springs Ranch Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

Greenshoots 2013: Black Forest Luxury Market

Yesterday we completed a report on the Tri-Lakes Market and indicated that we planned on excluding High Forest Ranch from that analysis because it was a more direct competitor with stretches of Black Forest District 20 to the south. High Forest is a gated neighborhood with 2+ acre lots in the trees on the very souther edge of Lewis-Palmer District 38; we are making the subjective call that the proximity to District 20 neighborhoods like Cathedral Pines, Abert Estates, New Breed Ranch, Bridle Bit and unincorporated stretches of El Paso County up roads like Peregrine and Holmes is more comparable than District 38 neighborhoods like Bent Tree or King’s Deer.

The expectation that these areas would have more inventory, sell slower, and have a lower probability of sale than other markets was proven correct. Surprisingly, the best selling neighborhood classification was Black Forest away from Shoup and Highway 83; this is the least defined and largest geographic area that we mapped, and it had the highest rate of sale in 2012, primarily because 81% of the market was between $500,000 and $600,000. High Forest Ranch had an over $700,000 average selling price in 2012, and Cathedral Pines was just shy of a million. So if there are surprises, it’s that this super-high-end market has less than a year’s worth of inventory to sell through right now, and in some cases, six to eight months of available product.

One last note: Cathedral Pines had 7 MLS recorded sales. This is a lower number, especially when three times as many homes registered as failed-to-sell in 2012. However… there were 10 land sales in 2012, a significant number. The story of reselling a luxury home today is the direct competition with building new. Buyers of land in Cathedral Pines in 2012 sometimes paid $0.30 on the dollar for their lot compared to prices paid in 2005 to 2007.

High Forest Ranch

High Forest Ranch Neighborhood Patterns High Forest Ranch Scattergram High Forest Ranch Buying Patterns High Forest Ranch Time to Sell

Cathedral Pines

Cathedral Pines Neighborhood Patterns Cathedral Pines Scattergram Cathedral Pines Buying Patterns Cathedral Pines Time to Sell

Around Cathedral Pines (Bridle Bit, Abert Estates, New Breed Ranch and unincorporated El Paso County around Shoup, east to Holmest)

Around Cathedral Pines Neighborhood Patterns Around Cathedral Pines Scattergram Around Cathedral Pines Buying Pattern Around Cathedral Pines Time to Sell

Black Forest acreage over $500,000 in District 20 (north of Cathedral Pines and east of Holmes).

Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Neighborhood Patterns Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Scattergram Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Buying Patterns Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 time to sell

 

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer timeBenjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.