Category Archives: Football Friday

That’s right, it’s time to engage in the fall smackfest and make predictions guaranteed to be wrong the second the blog posts. Engage in the color, the pageantry, and the God-awful misplaced prognostication every Friday during football season! This week: picking all 32 teams. My football arrogance and undermining idiocy knows no bounds.

So why bother? Because football is the great collective online water-cooler. I don’t play Fantasty, don’t even know how to score it, but I respect teams and how they function. And one of my real estate abilities is to look for and identify actionable patterns. Some of the patterns in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE (that would be the Phil Simms-voice, people):

1. You build in the draft, not in free agency
2. Good coaches are more important than great quarterbacks
3. Playmakers are more important on the defensive-side of the ball
4. Conventional Wisdom in football and real estate is something nice and friendly to cling to when you don’t know the real answers to a question. And it’s usually wrong.
5. San Diego will never win a Super Bowl. Because.
6. By the way, unless you’re reading in Hebrew, most people read from left to right, so just this once, I will put the AFC WEST as the first of the division picks since the Left Coast gets no respect or love from the media-heavy East Coast. I dare say no American sport is more media-focused, and therefore, more East Coast-centric than THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. So any hype or hyperbole you hear about the East Coast teams? The Jets are merely a reflection of the media-fixation.

AFC WEST:

Caption Contest!

1.) Chargers (13-3). The Chargers could have Norv Turner be Norv and the over-rated Ryan Matthews piddle his way through the year and still win 11-12. They are a loaded team. But I still see them losing on home field in one round in January. 2.) Denver (8-8). Every year a team improves their win-total by five games and Denver is as good a candidate as anyone. They will be much more competitive due to their potential top-ten defense, but lack depth to win more then eight in the war of attrition that is THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Thank goodness the season stayed at 16 games. For now. 3.) Oakland Raiders (7-9) I would not be surprised to see the Raiders steal an opener from Denver on Monday night and start out strong due to their running game and overall team speed. But passing their defensive holes are many and teams will figure them out. Poor Hue Jackson is such a great cheerleader for the Raider-way, and yet it’s easy to see him as another team’s coordinator next year. 4.) KC Chiefs (3-13) Yes, I hate the Chiefs and that influences my pick, but this looks like another failed experiment at the Patriot-way. There is no depth behind Matt Cassell and Brian Waters is now a Patriot. They have two major prima donna do-nothings as wideouts and if they get behind, their best attack, the run, is neutralized. Add to that a brutal schedule.

AFC SOUTH:

Indianapolis Colts (8-8): this is the most overrated division in football, especially if (or likely with) Peyton on the sideline. There is no quick recovery or guaranteed timeline on neurological issues and Peyton’s injury is to his cervical nerves. He’ll be back this year, but not before the damage is done. Kerry Collins couldn’t help a team with Chris Johnson last year… how the junk will he help a team with this running attack? Look for the Colts however to be dangerous when it counts in December and January. Houston Texans (7-9) This is a team others will adjust to. It must be maddening to be a Texans fan because realistically they could win or lose any week of the year. They have the studs on the offense to beat the Packers, and playmakers on defense to embarrass the Steelers, but rarely are they ever on the same page in the same game. The big question is this: will Mike Shanahan dump his son to hire Kubiak as his offensive coordinator in Washington next year? Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9) plucky, just not very good. Jacksonville has the advantage of always being overlooked and that is good for three wins a year. But they have nothing to build from and no destination to organize their team around… other than maybe Los Angeles. Tennessee Titans (3-13). Oops. You drafted Jake Locker 8th overall this year and are in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes this year. They don’t have a culture to believe in which allows Chris Johnson to be a huge distraction. When you’re behind 14 in the third quarter, the best running back in the league has a hard time getting to 1200 yards.

AFC NORTH:

Baltimore Ravens (12-4): Good luck beating the Steelers three times in one season, but I expect them to sweep the regular season. Will they have it when it counts? Nope. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5): bound to be injured, no real running game, too much reliance on Big Ben to throw it around… just get them in the playoffs as a written-off team and look out. Cleveland Browns (8-8): in it until the end, but what could be worse for a team than your lunch-pail 255 pound running back on the cover of Madden 2012? Is there any worse fate to a player’s health? This is a guy who once shredded his hamstring making a catch. Cincinnati Bengals (1-15). The temptation to say 0-16 is there, but I love reading about these guesses that they’ll improve once Carson Palmer decided to come back. Are you serious? Come back to this disaster?

AFC EAST

New England Patriots (12-4) Now see, I could see Randy Moss coming back to be a Pat.  New Jersey Jets (10-6) A great wild card team. Strangely weak in the front seven. Better and more dangerous offensively than last year, thinner with less depth defensively.  Buffalo Bills (9-7). I have no idea how Ryan Fitzpatrick and a decent offense could be viewed as inferior to Chad Henne and the Miami Dolphins (5-11) with their terrible offense. Note to the AFC East: Double cover Brandon Marshall and jam him at the line of scrimmage. He’s a big wuss with a temper in the first five yards.

Wild Card Round: New England over New York. Pittsburgh over Indy. Second Round: Pittsburgh over San Diego. New England over Baltimore. Third Round: Pittsburgh over New England

NFC

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals (10-6) Kevin Kolb is a good quarterback and Larry Fitzgerald will actually live up to his contract. St. Louis Rams (10-6): It’s not like Sam Bradford is going to get worse, but I do see them on the outside looking in come playoff time. Seattle Seahawks (5-11) Remember that fan-created earthquake you experienced in the Wild Card round last year? Yeah. Remember that. Savor that. I give Pete Carroll another year, tops. San Francisco 49ers (2-14). Oh, now we see why Harbaugh took that job. It’s vaguely Jimmy Johnson, 1988 isn’t it? Leave college for a sexy pro program, have a terrible first year, but through the draft you build a dynasty? Might actually work. This has to be one of the three likely Andrew Luck destinations in 2012.

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans (12-4) This is why St. Louis ends up on the outside looking in. These guys will have a hard time losing outside their own division (and Lambeau). Atlanta Falcons (12-4) possibly a better team than the year before, but for the kings’ ransom they gave up for Julio Jones, they need to be 14-2 and unstoppable. I don’t think they are. You can’t be nicknamed “Matty Ice” or considered an elite quarterback until you do a thing in the playoffs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) Josh Freeman might be the third best quarterback in his division and the fourth best in his conference. This team is better positioned for the long haul than Atlanta. Carolina Panthers (3-13) Something about “when all you’ve known is winning your ‘amateur’ career…”

NFC NORTH

Green Bay Packers (10-6) Remember, 10-6 got them a ring last year. But they haven’t been sharp. Detroit (10-6), that’s right, Matt Stafford and Sam Bradford can tweet smack in the Wild Card Round all they like. This could be a team a draft away from a Super Bowl however. Minnesota Vikings (9-7) Donovan might win them a game, but Peterson ought to win them their other 8. Expect a gargantuan year from All-Day. Chicago Bears (6-10). I don’t know how Cutler stays healthy again through this year, or keeps his head, or Mike Martz doesn’t go Holy Martz as he is apt to do. Lots of juicy bylines out of Chicago this year, with no apparent tight ends, no apparent running game, a concrete field, Cutler, Martz, etc.

Best Announcer Line ever: 2003 opener, John Madden on a horizontally-striped shirt-wearing Andy Reid. "Andy, have a word with the office in New York. That's not a good look."

NFC EAST

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) I’m picking this one for Gordon. I think he’s right. I think Romo will lead to several victories, they are rebuilding but doing so in a scalable way, I think they’re actually building a model of a post-lockout team similar to the way hockey teams adapted post-lockout and changed their game around. This is going to be a good team for several years. Although I’m not sold on Rob Ryan. Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) and out of the playoffs. I don’t see it. Vick is one scramble from the IR and then Kafka leads them into January? I don’t know how they juggle three possible All-Pro corners at once. Washington Redskins (7-9) win-now Mike can show progress, but not a winning record. This franchise is being built for what exactly? Mediocrity? New York Giants (5-11) I see the end of Coughlin’s reign in New York. The Matt Dodge punt to DeSean Jackson was the start last year. This is an openly dysfunctional and almost altogether unlovable team. Yeah, Herzlich is a nice story, making the team as a cancer survivor. It pretty much stops there. Steve Smith and his team record 100 catch season doesn’t have room on your team after microfracture surgery? Does anyone else see the Coughlin > BC > Herzlich parallels as at least a little fishy?

Wild Card Round: Tampa over Arizona. Atlanta gets revenge on Green Bay. Second Round: New Orleans over Tampa. Dallas over Atlanta. Third Round: New Orleans over Dallas.

Super Bowl: Pittsburgh over New Orleans.

I’m imagining (key word and concept) a better future for the Broncos. This future has a safe harbor for my Broncos Santa Hat and my Snuggie.

I have not given up on the snarling horse of the apocalypse.

But in my reflecting on the lessons of the Josh McDaniels-era in Denver, I keep coming back to how many of the mistakes the Broncos made are mistakes I have made too. It’s the tale of decision-making in our modern lives.

First, a movie clip. One of the great scenes in movie history, “Rip it Out” from Dead Poet’s Society.

Apparently, Dr. Jay Allen Pritchard, PhD (he’s a double doctor, a great little joke I’m sure Williams put into the script) has infected the brains of so many football scribes and the Denver Broncos leadership. Dr. Pritchard, PhD is what Seth Godin calls the “The Lizard Brain”. Others I know call it the Resistance, Satan, Crowdthink, The Other, That Voice in My Head, etc. The point: we seek greatness because we know it is good, but then we damn that greatness to hell with our insatiable desire to measure and quantify said greatness. The whole idea of measuring poetry (or art of any kind) is moronic. Providing a graphic mass of consequence as a tool to determine greatness? Idiocy.

But that’s what the Broncos did with McDaniels. Sketch him out. He fits the profile. The guy is smart. He’s an offensive guru. He’s a math guy. He is of good stock. He plots well.

But he had (has) no people skills. He’s infected with hubris. He had no background in personnel decisions – at all – and was entrusted with those decisions in addition to head coaching duties, play calling duties and offensive coordinator duties.

Pat Bowlen and Joe Ellis are just like you and me. We let the Lizard make these decisions for us all the time. I see it in how REALTORS try and run their business. It is the thirst to quantify everything. More listings. More ads. More photos. More apps on their iPad. Are they graphing any higher? Sure. Are they happier. Ha. Trust me, I know of what I speak. Guilty as charged.

Politicians do this. More pork, more press conferences, more sound bites, more Sunday morning shows. Are their citizens any better?

Your boss might be doing this. More meetings. More productivity. More slogans. More more. Are you going anywhere.

You might be doing this if you’re looking for a job. More time on the resume. More applications. More posts in your blog reader to read more about more.

Where is any of this measurable-more going? Is there any story behind it? Is there even the semblance of a plot?

The reason to bring this to light is the ability to lead people is often overlooked. In football terms, the brilliance of Mike Tomlin as a hire in Pittsburgh had nothing to do with where he plotted on any graphs. It had to do with his ability to be a Pittsburgh Steeler, understand 80 years of football obsession and culture, and then ratchet that up even more. There are many articles out there this week about Bill Bellichek’s hollow coaching tree, that he can’t spin off great coaches who use his system. I’m sorry, that’s not at all fair to Bellichek, and I don’t care what you think of him. He’s 10-2 right now and has the best team in football despite a lousy defense. He allocates his strengths better than anyone else in the league. What’s the hardest stadium to play in right now? Foxboro. I think the dude knows what’s going on. Like the aforementioned Godin says in Linchpin, in terms of leadership, there is no map when leadership is at stake.

The era of systems (in business-terms, the 80′s and 90′s, in football-terms, Bill Walsh) is dead. We live in a tribal culture (Twitter, Facebook, MobileMe, Ning) and an increasingly tribal economy. The internet is a tool that profoundly expands the ability of individuals to connect with one another and disseminate ideas. At the same time, what it does best is tighten bonds in small audiences. The small audience of ardent fans is the most important. It’s much harder to go and get new converts, then it is to maximize the benefits of the already-on-board diehards.

If Shannon Sharpe is elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame this winter, will the entire Denver Broncos franchise show up for his induction next summer? No way. When Dick LeBeau was inducted this summer, did the entire Steelers organization show up? Yes.  Now some will be quick to point out that when Elway was inducted, there was a huge turn out of Broncomaniacs. Fair enough. But Elway was a transcendent player, possibly the best quarterback ever, and the first Bronco ever inducted into the Hall. Dick LeBeau never even played for the Steelers, he’s their flippin’ Defensive Coordinator, and there are something like 5678 members of the Steelers organization already in Canton. Is it likely that on a Friday morning in Pittsburgh, a small group of friends get together, and heading out the door plop their Steelers lid on the mussed-up hair? No. But there were multiple people wearing Steelers gear this morning at Panera at 6:45 in Colorado Springs (The Broncos were shut out).

To that end, Mike Tomlin is as good a business decision as he is a football coach. I have nothing more to measure this on other than the fact that his tribe is growing. The Broncos tribe is shrinking.

The Denver Broncos are yet another dinosaur that is clinging to the Dr. Pritchard, PhD, school of measuring greatness. A lot of businesses are still clinging to stupid graphs. Rather than making art, they’re worried about defining measurable metrics and creating some mass and hoping that this mass (what some might better call a tumor) has weighty enough stuff to go forth and do good. They call this a plan. It’s sabotage.

If you were to do an unflinching SWOT analysis of your business or your career, would you spend your time really looking at your strengths (like you should), or would you look instead at what other people were doing and focus entirely on your shortcomings? Clearly, the Denver Broncos take the SWOT approach and focus on the W & T and forget the S & O. Think about this for a second: is your career or your business doing what the Broncos do?

Source: http://www.DrewLitton.com

Here is what the Broncos are doing (compare this to your career or your business): The Broncos have for too long under-utilized John Elway (“The Duke of Denver”) as a marketing engine for the company. He’s practically begging his way back in. STRENGTH: Put Elway on as the face of your franchise. He’s Colorado Royalty. They have the perfect quarterback (Tebow) to run the Oregon Blur Offense which would be particularly devastating for teams that have to travel to Denver and play at an elevation 4000 feet higher than any other stadium in the league. STRENGTH: Tebow sells more jerseys than any player in the league, could run a unique offense, and make Denver a terrifying place to play again. A once loyal and passionate fan base is shut out of training camp because the team practices in a sterile suburban setting called “Dove Valley” (which I have misappropriated “Dive Valley” for this post). STRENGTH: Practice two weeks in Greeley or Pueblo and make the team accessible to the masses for at least a few weeks out of the year. This will re-energize the common citizenry to actually save up to pay for tickets for a game or two a year. The teams colors are blue and orange.

They insist on wearing navy uniforms, which excite no one, and have reduced a potentially hallucinatory color in their pallet to secondary status (orange, see example, Barrelman). STRENGTH: revert to orange and blue. There is no mistaking where you’re playing when the blur offense is gassing you and 72,000 fans are re-energized behind their team, for good or for bad, as they don a hideously loud shade of orange apparel. That’s gonna be good for a win or three a year.

This is not the story you want people talking about

How many more wins will these actions produce? Silence, Lizard! It may not create more wins in the short-term. But it does creates a story worth talking about. That’s long-term value. It creates something (a tribe) worth buying into. Todd Haley famously wagged his finger at McDaniels and said “There’s a lot of #*@! being said about you.” That’s not worth talking about. That’s the stuff that jeopardizes teams abilities to grow, sign talent and improve. The Dr. Pritchard, PhD graph might measure things well, but it eventually is the last thing you want someone talking about.

What the Broncos have done over the last 15 years (yes, the start of the Shanahan-era) is take everyone of their strengths and found a way to convert it into a weakness. They have abandoned what made them lovable and unique, and instead chosen to follow what everyone else did. They were orange, and they went navy. In the end, the organization itself has become like so many others. Except, they’ve become insufferable because the only thing people can measure – their record – is terrible.

This behavior is not unique to Bronco-Town. People sabotage their own careers, businesses and lives all the time in similar ways.

• What strengths have you kept under wraps for too long?
• What leadership stake have you not exercised?
• What story can your business and career tell better?

I am not a bandwagon University of Oregon Ducks fan. I actively rooted for the Quackfest in the 1991 Holiday Bowl against CSU because at the time, their starting flanker was my cousin, Joe Reitzug. That’s the extent of big-time college football fame I enjoy, a maternal cousin who was a two-year starter and at 5’9″ could dunk a basketball (two-handed, mind you). The Ducks and their crazy Phil Knight uni’s are the toast of college football this year (thank you Cam Newton for helping everyone so quickly forget Jeremiah Massoli) and are in line to hold off TCU and Boise State for a chance at a national title.

From the NikeBlog Titled "What Will the Ducks Wear Saturday" Oh to have Phil Knight as an Alum.

If you don’t follow college football, you might not know about the Ducks brand of offense. It’s not called the hurry-up or the run-and-shoot. It’s three-steps crazier. It’s called The Blur.

The Blur is so interesting because as I wrote earlier about the launch of Pikes Peak Urban Living, there is something radically enjoyable amidst the disruption when the unicorn enters the balloon factory. The Ducks are that unicorn and everyone else is a quick-popping balloon. The Blur averages a snap in less than 18 seconds between possessions and unlike previous quick-strike offenses, it relies just as much on the run as it does the pass. Defenses have struggled to stop the Ducks from scoring 50 points a game in every contest this year and their ability to throw up massive points, fast, creates an emotional avalanche to opposing defenses. Even better as far as Oregon is concerned, it forces the other team to increase their tempo and not practiced in doing this, they tend to turn the ball over.

The Blur is so great because the Blur changes everything. It turns football into a track meet. It exerts the will of one team onto another team and forces that other team to compensate or change. The Blur reminds everyone that life is not fair, and that those that lead change, often get to harvest the first fruits. There are plenty of theoretical ways of stopping The Blur, yet no one has yet to put theory to action, and until they do, it is unstoppable.

Last year I wrote a post about how the Broncos need to exert their will on their opposition by changing the way they played. The way to do this was the hurry-up offense, I argued. Thinking conventionally, I attributed the 5280′ elevation as the ultimate home-field advantage and that the best way to utilize that advantage in warm weather or cold, was to gas the opposition with a blistering high-tempo passing game. Again, great example of conventional thinking ignoring other variables like cold-weather running teams and the Broncos propensity to give up 300 yard rushing games after December 1st. Well that’s basically what the Broncos have done this year and Kyle Orton is on a pace for 5000 passing yards, that is, with a couple exceptions. One, there is no quick tempo between plays, and two, Orton has the mobility of a dining room table. The painful exercise known as the Broncos running game shows the difficulties of one-dimensional passing and despite some gaudy numbers, a 20 point Bronco game is rare this year.

Enter Tim Tebow.

In business and in sports, allowing your competition to be comfortable is a sin. The Blur is so far a college phenomenon with no disciples in the pro game, but there are some similarities to be found in some of the class organizations in the league: In Indy, Peyton Manning effectively runs the Frustration Blur as he is the on-field coach and creates all sorts of weird looks for defenses to adjust to and then tests their patience with odd cadence snap counts that are sometimes fast and sometimes drawn out to the last millisecond. Even stodgy Pittsburgh has been one of the last outposts of old school trick plays, an every now and again wrinkle that keeps defenses guessing, a technique that allows the offense to sometimes be plodding, but just unpredictable enough to keep the defense from getting comfortable.  point is that neither franchise has the running ability and power of a Tebow at quarterback. Tebow certainly is not as cerebral or accurate as Manning, nor as pocket aware and experienced as Roethlisberger, but then again, the run and shoot, the spread and the west coast all came out of the college ranks before making it to the big league. The reality is that The Blur changes everything. As a Bronco Fan, I’m happy to let McDaniels keep Tim on the bench until next year; as long as he is trying to work something like The Blur into the Broncos future. The Broncos “need to make their plumbing work” and the first way to do that is to re-engineer the system. If the talent level of the team (Thomas, Royal, Lloyd, Moreno, Tebow, Clady, Harris, no dominant tide end… so far, so good) allows you to do something really radical and really different… it becomes inexcusable not to use your talents, to their maximum. If not this year, the Broncos more than any other team in the league have the personnel and the need to adopt The Blur as their own.

It’s one thing to make a sports analogy and it’s another to execute the same thing in real life. I haven’t cared a lick about my investments since 2007 and haven’t paid attention at all to what they’re doing. Charles Schwab has decided to take me on as a project (or at least that’s what it felt like) and contacted my $16,000 uninvested cash position five different times by phone this month to help. That alone is amazing. What’s better is that the leading discount broker in America has a little tool that helps you assess your investment tolerance, gives you percentages in how you can allocate, and let’s you put any publicly traded information into it.

Of course I’m going to use this tool. I’m a measly little investor and they made me feel special. Game-changer number one. Their competition ought to feel uncomfortable right now on that fact alone. Schwab might as well be playing on a totally different field then everyone else as far as I’m concerned. Then they showed me a tool where I can put my entire retirement plan and measure it according to my goals, age and desires. It is so simple, it took 90 seconds to explain, but they didn’t even really need to explain it.

I’m sure other brokerages offer this. It’s pathetic if they don’t. But this is painfully simple and easy to use. But better for Schwab, most of those brokerages aren’t interested in me. Because of that, I’m not writing a blog about them. Schwab has changed the game as far as I’m concerned. I’m not as complacent today about my investments because they 1.) pursued me (which alone changed the game) and then 2.) made life easy for me (a cout d’etat in finance world).

Game-changers are worth talking about. Using talent to the maximum benefit is worth talking about. Tim Tebow should be given the option to run The Blur just as I should have the option of using one website to monitor all my investment information. I don’t care if Schwab sees what I have with Fidelity and Oak and Pimco and Edward Jones. They’re making things easier. In my world, making things easier is remarkable.

Onto picks. The focus this week is on quarterbacks and the over-used tendency to pan or praise the remarkable or unremarkable play at this position. It’s also my nice jab at ESPN’s John Clayton and his totally subjective “elite quarterback” rating system (65% efficient, 4000 yards annual passing, 4th quarter comeback ability). This is such a stupid compromise of minimal fantasy-metrics and Jon Gruden “intangibles” and way, way too many quarterbacks get the elite status. I will break the quarterbacks down in this manner, using a name to say “this is the maxed-out potential this guy has. They’re probably not as good as the body of work this guy embodied, but at their best, this is who they’re most like”:

Montana’s: I’d rather have Elway for entertainment value, but all Joe did was win, do it prolifically and act as Walsh’s catalyst to reinvent the game. A singular talent that would have won Super Bowls without his talented supporting cast. See Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, possibly Drew Brees and no one else. Brees has never had the deficiencies to play through that Manning and Brady have had on multiple occasions. Manning probably deserves his own category, but he really needs to win another Super Bowl to top Montana.

Elway’s: Always Entertaining, but not a singular enough talent to bring a team to greatness on his own shoulders. When he had talent around him, he made the most of it.

Marino’s: Prolific as anyone, often must-see TV, but no Super Bowl rings, so what?

Bradshaw’s: Destiny had a special place in her heart for his destination. Surrounded by superb players, his many deficiencies somehow were glossed over for a multiple championship career.

Fouts’: Just as prolific, but cursed with only slightly better than mediocore teams.

There’s a pretty big talent drop off after this. Because remember, this is as good as these guys can be at their best.

Plunkett: Really not at all responsible for winning it all, but had the ability to throw one or two big passes a game and had the intestinal fortitude to not cost his team a win. Required an awesome supporting cast and a team with attitude. There are a lot of guys that can get to this status. It should be remembered that the world was expected of Plunkett when he entered The National Football League. Plunkett left college football as the all-time leading collegiate passer and went to Stanford. He was a bust as a Patriot but surrounded with the attitude in Oakland (and later LA) made the most of his little. If anything, this moniker which is widely used is aspirational for most of the guys. Plunkett is one of the rare guys who had some talent, failed, and then found the rejuvenator one day.

Dilfer: the anti-Fouts, a fairly worthless journeyman who somehow sticks around for 15 years like a virus. The best thing you can say about him is that he doesn’t always get in the way. Not to be confused with

Kitna: also an anti-Fouts, but with a decent arm, who ends up surviving being a journeyman for 15 years in the league on teams that have given up as entire franchises. Would actually make a great commentator after he retires, but is too honest and humble and nice for TV.

Majikowski: The Majik Man’s fatally flawed career: felled by injuries and a ruthless back-up whose name shall not be uttered (but it kind of rhymes with “barf”)

Craig Morton: You’re really just a placeholder in the saga at quarterback, keeping things warm for Roger Staubach or John Elway to replace you.

Akili Smith: some talent scout grotesquely over-valued your stock so it’s not your fault you’ve been thrust onto a stage too big for you. See also Joey Harrington. Shoot, see Bill Musgrave and every Oregon quarterback ever since… Dan Fouts.

George: you are a loathsome, uncoachable, me-first guy designed for one-purpose: to undo entire franchises and fan bases.

Kurt Warners without the Glass Slipper: This is what happens when fate doesn’t intercede on a man’s life catapulting him from grocery clerk to Super Bowl MVP. This happens to teams like Carolina.

Winner picks are Bold Underline (last picks were two weeks ago, 10-4, 33-23 for the year).

TONIGHT: Ravens (Flacco = Plunkett) at Falcons (Ryan = Marino): The Falcons have a lousy last eight games to plow through, but Matt Ryan has lost one-time at home as a starter. I don’t know how you dismiss that stat in an age of parity. If Roddy White really is a man among boys, tonight will tell the tale. So far, so true.

Lions (Stafford = Majikowski) at Bills (Fitzgerald = Plunkett): The Lions sad sack ways continue with Matt Stafford now suffering his third major shoulder injury in less than 20 games in the league. Buffalo has been the most competitive mid-season winless team ever (they put up 30 on the Pats) and at home, this has to be their last best chance for a win.

J-E-T-S (Sanchez = Smith) at Browns (McCoy=Plunkett): How did Colt McCoy go three rounds without getting picked? He’s not a big-time stud and he’s too small to beat a team single-handedly, but name another quarterback in the last four years who was more like Drew Brees? Drew Brees is probably the uber-Plunkett, and that might be the perfect motivational handle for McCoy. It’s only been three games, but you can’t take lightly wins over New Orleans and New England.

Carolina (Moore, Clausen, doesn’t matter, = Non-Cinderella Warners) at Tampa There is No Bay (Freeman = Elway): Josh Freeman is the closest thing to Elway’s first two years in so many ways. Johnny 7 couldn’t get out of his own way fast enough the first 3/4 of his rookie season… kinda like Josh. Then he erupted late in his rookie year and lead the Broncos to 13-3 his second season when he started his role as a clutch, scrambling, cannon-armed fun-fest. So far, Josh Freeman has 7 come from behind victories. He’s been around for 23 games!

Houston (Schaub= Fouts) at Jacksonville (Gerrard = Dilfer): Matt Schaub can sure put up some gaudy numbers. Yet he seems destined to be saddled with a franchise that finds ways from achieving it’s own elite potential. David Gerrard can be Fouts-like, but only when playing the Cowboys.

Tennessee (Young = Elway or Smith, I’m still not sure) at Dolphins (Pennington = Plunkett): I love Tony Sparano as a coach. I love that this week he dumped Henne (George in the making) for Pennington (can’t beat anyone on his own, but gives your team that chip on the shoulder edge). I love Vince Young as a player way too much so just ignore my Elway comparison. It’s totally illogical.

I forgot on Thursday to put the best quarterback comparison game of the week in the post. Here is a Sunday morning revision: Minnesota (Favre=Elway) at Chicago (Cutler = George… and maybe Favre). Brett Favre will retire after this year with most every important quarterback record and all the network talking heads will start their debate in earnest if he was the best ever. He’s not. Not remotely. The amount of talent he’s been surrounded with most of his career has been significantly better than either Marino or Elway, and despite his prolific yardage, a single Super Bowl title (and a couple totally on-him Conference Title meltdowns) is fairly inexcusable. The real greats make everyone around them better. All Favre has ever done has allowed his team a chance. While it has lead to regular season wins, it has not mattered when it mattered most. Cutler on the other hand is clearly falling into Jeff George territory by the week, but the dirty little secret about George both he, and his contemporary Favre, have so many similarities in common. All three are me-first gunslingers who throw mind-numbing interceptions at critical junctures. Cutler lacks the talent around him to overcome this debilitating habit (much like George). The only difference between Cutler and Favre’s mannerisms is that Favre has had superior talent, on both sides of the ball. He’s remarkably fortunate to have played where he has. JC? Not so much.

Kansas City (Cassell = Morton) at Denver (Orton = Morton): C’mon, are either of these guys ever going to the Pro Bowl?

Dallas (Kitna = Kitna, Romo = Marino) at Giants (Manning=Bradshaw): Now that Eli Manning has multiple high-quality receivers (like Bradshaw) and the entire NFC is terrible, the similarities are getting spooky.

Seattle (Hasselbeck = Kitna because he’s a nicer guy than Dilfer) at Arizona (Anderson = Dilfer): Oh to be a quarterback in Sam Bradford’s division.

St. Louis (Bradford = Montana) at San Francisco (Smith = Smith): Yeah, he’s nine games into his career and already Sam Bradford looks like Peyton Manning, circa 2000 on the cover of SI: “So Good, So Soon.” Manning was 3-13 his first year. Bradford has him in wins already by one. Folks, the Rams are not a good team. They’re well-coached, but they have talent at three positions. They have four wins. They are over-achievers because they have a singular talent at the most important position in the game. I think they win this division.

New England (Brady = Montana) at Pittsburgh (Roethlisberger = Elway/Bradshaw): I can’t quite tell on Big Ben. Elway never had the kind of defense he’s been blessed with, and only late had a decent coach. Big Ben has had superb coaching and a team with a singular attitude his entire career. Not many guys outside of Bradshaw have ever enjoyed such fruits. The pick is because of the Pittsburgh Defense at home in a night game.

Washington (McNabb = ???) at Philadelphia (Vick = Marino). The Vick / Marino analogy is sure to infuriate plenty of diehard Dolphin fans, but consider: when Marino was on Monday Night, you tuned in. When Michael Vick is on his game, you tune in. They approach the game totally differently, but in the regular season at least, always gave their team a chance. The biggest win for Vick was a frozen playoff win at Lambeau. That might be the best he ever does. McNabb is a totally different wrinkle. He’s got some Fouts, he’s got some Plunkett… and he’s got Craig Morton in him. If he played in Kansas City for instance, he might have gone to one Pro Bowl. That isn’t to say he’s bad. But there’s a part of him that will always be a whisper of Jeff George (a rating no one gets this week because Cutler is on his bye), gassed down the stretch in the Super Bowl, pulled last week from a two minute drill. Who in this sport plays such a bad team game to ever be caught in that position?

vI am not only a Bronco fan, but my picking is as about as pathological and consistently inconsistent as the Broncos’ performance on the field. Last week I was 6-8 after posting a decent 8-6 the week before. I picked right both meltdown games, picking against Dallas and Minnesota and I picked the rejuvenated Redskins over the Packers. I also picked Buffalo (look out 2008 Lions!), Carolina (look out 2008 Lions!) and Denver (0-5 lifetime at M&T in Baltimore and yes, I knew this before making the pick). Maybe the most maddening part of this is how so many teams with equal strengths and equal deficiencies are meeting up this week. Winner picked in Bold Type.

Atlanta at Philly: Atlanta is right now the best team in the NFC. They can run, they can pass when they need to, they are disciplined and well coached. Conventional Wisdom and probably every talking head out there will pick Atlanta, which is usually enough to scare me away from joining forces. However, Kevin Kolb and not Michael Vick is the likely quarterback on Sunday. If it is Vick, I say Eagles. But Vick probably won’t play, and I don’t think Kolb has it to beat a team as good as Atlanta. Thus, Falcons.

Pork Ribs with Sauce at Mesquite Smoked Beef Brisket: Possibly the hardest pick of the week, but likely home to the best barbecue tailgating in years. Kansas City might be for real, giving the Colts serious fits and keeping them from playing the way they wished to play. It was not enough because Matt Cassell is a lousy quarterback. But everywhere else, Kansas City has the pieces to get things done, against the pass, against the run, running the ball and on special teams. Houston was simply terrible last week getting shellacked at home by the Giants. KC will want to play a game of keep away in this one just like they did last week, and should emerge victorious. But they won’t. Shall and will are two different things in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. Kansas City really has not made any mistakes this year, and as a young team, is overdue. They have two of their hardest road games of the season back to back, and while they learned a lot playing the Colts, they have to be somewhat emotionally taxed. The Texans are due to bust out and their defensive playmakers could have strong games.

Mistake by the Lake at The Stilahs: The only truly easy pick of the day, Cleveland has been remarkably competitive lately. But Colt McCoy has to make his debut on the road at Heinz? That’s the story, not Errol Flynn quarterbacking da’ Yinzers. Pittsburgh is one of the only teams where pride matters, and they lost a game they should have won before their bye week, and now get to right that wrong at home against a rival that is not very good. The only way Cleveland wins is if Josh Cribbs has two or more returns for touchdowns.

Surf Puget Sound at da’ Bears: A concussed Jake Cutler (injury report: Jake Cutler, Head, thanks Rich Bennett) gets to come back against a team that can not win outside the Pacific Time Zone. This pick is not quite as easy as the one above, but Matt Hasselbeck may retire after this one. The Bears defense is coming alive, and in the NFC Norse, that’s a big, bad deal for when the weather turns. If Cutler keeps his mistakes to less than three, the Bears win.

The Run up the Score Felines at New Meadowlands Football Giants:  I remember how shocking it was when Toronto spent $450 million on the Sky Dome, but then, that money got them the first truly retractable roof and a built-in hotel. New Meadowlands Stadium and the New Yankee Stadium, almost $2.5 billion in public-supported spending, both opened in the last two years. However, they both have $100 per ticket nose bleeds, so at least that’s progress. I would love it if Shaun Hill (a name strangely like Johnny Cash’s “Sam Hall”) could lead the  Lions into New Meadowlands New Jersey and emerge with a New Market Win for a New Norse contender. I would love it if Ndamokung Suh went wild and sacked Eli four times. I would love it if Jahvid Best ran for 200 yards. But I’ve come to realize that the stars are unfairly aligned over Gotham City once again, as the Yanks are looking to repeat, the Jets are the Beast in the East and Tom Coughlin found time to go to Confession and the Giants are playing lights out like they were supposed to when the season began. Sorry, Lions.

Baltimore MMA at The Suburban Boston Hoarders: This is the single hardest pick of the week and likely will be a defining game of the season. Baltimore inexcusably lost to Cincinnati, a team that doesn’t seem capable in anyway of beating quality opposition… unless that team happens to also play in the AFC North. Otherwise, Baltimore can lay claim to wins at The J-E-T-S and at The Yinzers. They do this because Ozzie Newsome is the most-under-rated GM in football. He builds great chemistry, obtains depth at multiple positions, rarely ends up in salary disputes and gets his team moving in the right direction. It is somewhat shocking that this team has not made a return trip to the Super Bowl, and I’m not convinced Joe Flacco is en elite quarterback that can get them there, but he wins tough games. It is because of Flacco that I changed my mind on this pick. Give Hoodie two weeks to scheme a team and he plays at home, and New England suddenly is back to the all-for-one style of old… I like their chances against a team that bloody embarrassed them in the same stadium last year in the playoffs. Just because I’m picking New England in this one does not mean I think they win the battle, win the war; both teams are likely factors in the playoffs.

San Diego at St. Louis: Both teams are needing a bounce back, but the surprise here is that they have the same record. This is a critical game for San Diego who – like Miami – has lost games due to spectacularly bad special teams. Against Seattle they allowed two kickoff return touchdowns. Against KC they allowed a punt return touchdown. They had successive punts blocked in the first six minutes last week against Oakland that allowed 9 points. I don’t know what special teams stud might emerge in St. Louis this weekend, but apparently the way to beat San Diego is to prey on their inability to focus on the little things. Steve Spagnulo strikes me as a coach who can find that wrinkle, whether on special teams or not. Sam Bradford is an icy, composed, methodical and accurate passer than can get his team yards. San Diego will probably end up getting hot later in the season. They started 2-3 last year and then won out before their usual post-season let down. But these are two teams with equal records and the Chargers keep losing the same way the Packers keep losing: poor discipline and shooting off their own feet. St. Louis is a young team that does not do that. Take the home team.

The Talents of South Beach at Mindless Meat Packers: both teams are supposed to be good, both teams have under-performed, and both teams are coming off of terrible losses. Where on earth is the momentum in this one? Green Bay has found new and ingenious ways to lose the last couple of weeks, going for 18 penalties against Chicago and throwing for 300 and running for 150 and scoring a mere 13 at DC last week. How about Aaron Rodgers throwing an overtime pick? Miami put up one of the most gruesome special teams performances in memory on national television and unleashed a quarterback controversy, when 9 days prior they looked like a serious threat to win the AFC East. Despite the lack of discipline on the Dolphin side of the ball, they had a bye to correct their problems and are better coached. They can run and pass and play good defense on the road. I also don’t like players coming off a concussion playing the next week (Rodgers).

The Longest, Most Strung-Out Super Bowl Party Hangover of All-Time at The New Sensation of Tampa: I have a hard-time imagining any other coach or football team or city or in this case, combination of all three, who could be more guilty of over-celebrating a Super Bowl. You won, it’s nice, take your eight weeks off, and get re-focused. That’s what professionals do, even in THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE. But the stories that come out of New Orleans smack more of legend than journalism. Gregg Williams was apparently hired as a defensive coordinator before the 2009 season when Sean Payton (head coach) was boozing it up with his players around a bonfire and decided to forgo a half million of his own salary to make sure they got Williams. He then spat in the fire. After winning the Super Bowl and partying like mad, they continued their festivities at the pre-draft Combine, deliberating sticking it in the face of the Cowboys (from whose coaching tree the over-ripe fruit of Payton fell), living it up in Indy all week and ordering out Jerry Jones favorite magnums of wine and writing “Who Dat?” in Sharpie on the bottle for Mr. Jones who was to dine at the same establishment the next night. Is this Australian Rules Football or THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE? Who does this? Answer: The New Orleans Saints. Is it any wonder that they are playing as if they have one insane headache all year? The biggest problem for New Orleans is that they lost Reggie Bush for a couple months and let Mike Bell go. Their rushing game has lost balance and teams are coming after Drew Brees. Brees is still accurate, but the team has lost their lethal offensive ways. The defense has been exposed as Gregg Williams defenses can be, because the offense has lost their lethal ways. The defense used to play with a swagger, and that was excusable because the offense was so nuclear as it was last year. The momentum of one unit carried over to the other unit, and if either was winded, Reggie would uncork a crazy punt return. None of that has shown up at all this year. This game really is about the rise of Tampa who won in startling fashion last week against the Bungles. But the reality is that Sean Payton probably laid down the law this week at practice, found some sort of high-proof whiskey to snort into a fire, or maybe Drew Brees just said “Enough already!” and is finally ready to go 31-35 for 467 and 4 scores. The Saints are still insanely talented and they have to show up eventually. Having lost one division game to Atlanta and barely beating hapless Carolina, I have a very hard time rationalizing or visualizing them laying another stinker in Tampa.

The Oakland Winning-Uglies at The San Francisco Just-Plain-Uglies: How on Earth are the Niners 0-5? Gregg Easterbrook thinks it is Michael Crabtree. After bringing in the talented Mr. Crabtree from his into-the-season holdout last year, the Niners reversed course and posted a losing record the rest of the year. They have now started 0-5. Mike Singletary has proven that he is among the worst head coaches in football on so many different fronts, I can no longer fathom what boneheaded decision he could exercise this week, and thus was ready on that reason alone to pick the Niners. But that would be against my better judgment, because there could be almost nothing as embarrassing as losing to the cross-Bay Raiders at home the same week management proclaimed in complete disregard for decency or intelligence that the team “would definitely win the NFC West this year” despite their present 0-5 record. Even Pete Carroll is a better coach than Mike Singletary, let alone Spagnulo and Whisenhut. Could they provide any better fodder for the locker room bulletin boards of their rivals? This game really could go either way, so I’m picking this one more on feel: I can visualize the Niners gutting out a win and lots of hyperbole after the game about a team “that never quits” from Singletary, and like New Orleans, seeing the law of averages even out, at least for one week. But I’m picking with my hedge, because Oakland has won positively gift-wrapped games, and most teams won’t make as many mental gaffes this entire season as San Fran has already made in the first five weeks. Here you go Al Davis, you’re 0.500 and in the thick of the division chase after six weeks.

There's Creepy... than there is Brad Childress

The Megalomaniacs of Dallas at the Megalomaniacs of Minneapolis:  Full-on meltdowns collide and Troy Aikman and Joe Buck have the call. Why can’t NBC Flex in games earlier in the year? Aikman and Buck will suck the life out of what should be an incendiary affair. I am picking Minnesota regardless of whether or not Favre plays primarily due to their defense. In big games, Tony Romo plays with a small brain. In big games, the entire Dallas offense wilts. The Long-Braided Pillagers and Purveyors of Hot Dish have their own problems, but look at it this way: Peterson and Moss versus Committee/Austin/Williams/Bryant. There are more players on the Dallas side of the ball that could do it, but there is no one with history who will do it. The Vikings have to lean on Adrian Peterson and that opens up the playmaking of Moss. Either or both are more likely to have a big game than anyone on the Cowboys, and Minny is at home.

The J-E-T-S at 4-11 in their last 15: I would normally save all my vitriol for the Broncos opposition, especially the J-E-T-S, but the Broncos win this one ONLY if ALL of the following happen: Eddie Royal returns a kick for a score; two or more Bronco receivers have 100 yard games; Kyle Orton throws for 350 or more against a superb secondary and is sacked less than 3 times; Mark Sanchez throws more than 2 picks; Darrell Revis does not play; LaDanian Tomlinson fumbles in the Red Zone; Rex Ryan is seen eating at a Vegan Restaurant in Boulder Saturday Night and sipping a ginger-infused

Megalopolis Rex

lemonade with his good friend and astrophysicst, Ravi. Picks are supposed to be first about probability and second about momentum. The Broncos will probably rally to go 8-8. They’ve been much more competitive  this year than they have been given credit for. They had no business beating New England last year or San Diego on the road, and this team is better due to the passing game. But the J-E-T-S are rolling and surviving brutal time management gaffes from their head coach. The problem for Denver is that McDaniels, an emotional guy and brilliant offensive strategist, is that he is over-thinking, and is probably reading the extensive negative print written about his coaching. His decisions to go for touchdowns not field goals twice in the fourth quarter against Indy were the right calls. You cannot give Peyton Manning the chance to beat you. But as if living in the shadow of that, last week down 24-7 and in the red zone for the first time he failed to challenge a called-incomplete but over-turnable catch by Brandon Lloyd on 2nd down, Orton threw badly into coverage on 3rd down, and then chose a chippy field goal. I beat Easterbrook to the punch and announced while ironing dress shirts “gameover”. Baltimore took the kickoff 90 yards for a three touchdown lead. Denver got the ball back again and was driving near midfield when the drive stalled. Down three touchdowns with more than 5 to play, what do you have to lose? Go for it. They punted. They got the ball back again and with less than a minute got past midfield. McDaniels called a long pass and they converted it to make the score look respectable. These are four terrible in-game decisions. Ryan lived to tell about his boneheaded decisions. Brett Favre was rallying the Vikings and the J-E-T-S got the ball in their own end. John Gruden said that Ryan -the Consummate Gambler – would want one pass play to try and get the first down. Sure enough, he did, and they got the first. Controlling the clock, they could whittle it down to nothing on Favre. They didn’t. The threw another pass play in, incomplete, stopped the clock, and punted at the 2 minute warning giving Favre a ton of time to go for the tie. Favre however flipped a lousy pick-six and the J-E-T-S fans went wild after midnight. That’s the emotional backdrop between a badly beat-up 2-3 home team playing against a fierce and balanced 4-1 team. A loss by less than two touchdowns for Denver would be encouraging, but this has all the makings of a terrible beatdown by a physical team. It is a good thing they have the Winning-Uglies and Just-Plain-Uglies in their next two games to heal their wounds before the bye.

Peyton Manning versus Mike Shanahan: There will be much talk about how the Redskins could end up stealing the NFC East, and how the Colts have under-achieved, and on and on and on… what it boils down to is this: Mike Shanahan has defeated Peyton Manning one-time, in 2003, and he did it by claiming a 2:1 ratio in time of possession with Quentin Griffin as his running back. It was quite a feat considering that superior Clinton Portis was on the shelf injured for that game and that the Colts have been wise to it ever since. Since then, team after team has tried that template and failed. Even teams that held massive time of possession advantages have failed: last year, the Colts had a game when they were down more than 2:1 in time of possession, and they still prevailed. Shanahan’s only win against Manning came at the expense of successive devastating tail-whippings in the playoffs . Ryan Torrain will not get it done against the Colts. The Colts will play too many receiving weapons for the Redskins to slow them down.  If that was not enough, it’s a night game. Peyton is nearly unbeatable in night games.

A really good 3-2 team from the AFC South at a very suspect 3-2 team from the AFC South: Both play 4-3. Both play quarterbacks who apparently are not very accurate, yet on occasion complete 80% of their passes or better. Both have fantasy-stud players in their backfield. Their history of hatred goes back to 2000 when Jeff Fisher proclaimed Alltel Stadium the Titans home away from home. The Titans should not have lost to Denver and should be in the conversation as a top tier team in the AFC. They proved it with a gutsy win at Dallas last week where they made the Cowboys pay for their mistakes. The most inconsistent franchise in football plays in Jacksonville. They have put up 13 total points in their losses and average over 30 in their wins. I have no clue on this one, and my coin flip says home team, for no other reason than this year has made little to no sense, so why not pick the suspect and inconsistent home team on Monday Night?

Thank you, my audience of nine who laughed yourselves silly at my predictions last week. For the record, 8-6 is right where the Broncos were after Week 14 last year and where I now stand in my 2010 picks. Eight up, six down isn’t bad considering that:

• Kyle Orton leads THE NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE in passing
• Tom Brady threw for less than 160 and the Pats beat the Dolphins by 27
• Every week multiple teams out-gain their opposition by 150 yards or more… and lose
• The last undefeated team in the league is quarterbacked by Matt Cassell.

No, it’s not rocket science. Rocket science obeys the principles of astrophysics and the space-time continuum. Even if they be restricted to elite egghead circles and filled with randomness and quantum wrinkles, at least you can dedicate these fields to something called science (which mean, “to know”). What do we “know” about the 2010 National Football League? That a fool and his money are soon parted.

Jacksonville at Buffalo: What a rousing way to start your Sunday at 1 Eastern. Jacksonville just gutted out a monumental victory at home over the Colts. They have scored 55 points in their wins and 16 in their losses. Buffalo, well, this is probably their best chance to win for sometime. The AFC East may be the best division in football (The NFC South is probably better) and Jacksonville is terrible away from home. Fans, enjoy two retread quarterbacks destined for the UFL next year playing starting roles on either side.

St. Louis at Detroit: Well whaddya know, the Rams at Lions in the Ides of March Bowl, The Fords versus the Wal-Marts. It really is too bad that Matt Stafford is out  in this one, because the two prototype NFL quarterbacking skills who represent each of the number one overall picks in the last two years could duel. Detroit should not be winless, and that’s a massive improvement over the Matt Millen era. The talent at wide receiver is there and Shaun Hill (SHAUN HILL!) is in the top ten in passing yards, despite not starting all the games this year. This game actually will be pretty interesting in another year or two as both teams seem to have halted their tide of miserable drafting and coaching. It’s amazing in a league of PLAYMAKERS how drafting guards and a quality strategic gameplan prevail.

Tampa at Cincinnati: A good game to watch on a small black and white television, think circa 1985 and a Sony Watchman. Two teams playing unenthusiastic football in butt-ugly uniforms, and you really don’t care what TO or 85 has to say to the sideline camera. I would not be surprised to see the Bengals figure things out, return to the stifling defense that made them a tough out early in the season last year, and I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them turn into the same headcases that were thumped in successive weeks by the J-E-T-S last year. Tampa is Ronde and the pipsqueaks and a little hard to figure. They play in a brutal division so it’s hard to imagine them going 8-8, but they are obviously a much better team than expected. Saying that, young teams sometimes have big boneheaded efforts, and they’re due.

Chicago at Carolina: So much is made of Julius Peppers return to Carolina, but I have a hard time seeing Carolina missing out on the chance to go after Todd Collins. Craziest thing I’ve heard in a long-time from a play-by-play in-game was the NBC stat Sunday Night that Todd Collins had not thrown a pick since 1997. This of course was right after he sent a duck into double coverage. I will bring up that last week I predicted Cutler was due for a terrible game, and last week was one of his worst. What is startling and sad is that very few people are talking about when he was concussed: I doubt it was on sack #9. That kind of beating was savage and his reads got progressively worse. A quarterback pressured that way usually gets jumpy and starts unloading the ball too soon; Cutler was doing the opposite, standing around in a fog and getting uncorked. I will state that I wonder if Cutler was not more seriously injured than disclosed and probably stayed in the game with an existing head injury before the sack that slammed his head to the turf. In a match up of ancient geezer QB and young punk QB (I’m a little appalled at myself that I preferred Clausen to Tebow in a post last year), go with the punk, only because his offensive line is better than the geezers. This will likely be a turnover fest, and the best chance the Bears have to win is if special teams is given the chance to win. I don’t think Hester will have that chance on successive weeks.

Denver at Baltimore: Correspondingly, I will support this pick with complicated jargon and trace evidence of logic. Number one, it’s the number one passing defense versus the number one passing offense. Always choose defense, right? Especially when it’s Baltimore? Wrong. Baltimore so far has played a poorly performing Mark Sanchez, an underwhelming Carson Palmer, Mistake by the Lake, and the Steelers Fourth String Quarterback. Meanwhile, Orton has posted his yardage against the Titans, Colts, Seahawks and Jaguars. The last two are among the four worst passing defenses in football, but have played only pass-heavy teams; the Titans and Colts are 13th and 15th respectively and would both be Top 10 passing defenses if they hadn’t been scorched by Air Orton. Another note: the Ravens have only played run-heavy teams so far, and are 21st against the run. They won’t have any problem keeping the Broncos from running, but the bottomline is that their defensive numbers are skewed, and they have not been tested. Fine, so Orton will get yards, the Broncos offensive line is still a sieve. True, but three rookies and three studs nursing injuries is going to result in a sieve line, but one that progressively should be getting better, not worse. If anything, the terrible early play of the offensive line might be critical to the Broncos future success. Example, Peter King (who I love to pick on, because he’s been given some unearned Yoda status among sports scribes) says that Houston’s superior offensive line will be the reason they prevail this week. The evidence there is Arian Foster’s league leading rushing yardage. How many times has Matt Schaub been sacked? 11. How many times has Kyle Orton been sacked? 11. Why is one line superior? If you had three rookies and three injured studs and had only given up as many sacks as a superior offensive line, don’t you think the law of averages is about to even out? It’s easy to dismiss a team based on small patterns, but two macro-patterns for the Broncos: #1, the running back position in Denver is like being the drummer in Spinal Tap. This is a three-year trend. The reason they can’t run is because anyone halfway decent got hurt or was auditioning because no one else would take them. They might as well wheel Laurence Maroney out onto the field in a chrysalis to complete the effect. #2, the conversion from a zone-running scheme to a power-running scheme in a single year, with half the players new, and both the edges injured, is painful to watch. This is an experiment that is not going well. It’s easy to panic and focus on what is not going well. It’s stupid to do this when a lot if going right. People undervalue a lot about Orton, including the thing they simply should not undervalue: his intelligence. He’s a Boilermaker, and the guy who played before him was a dude named Drew Brees. Bob Griese was also a Boilermaker. What do all three have in common? Strong decision-making. Great pocket-presence. Don’t make stupid plays. This is an engineering college, and not the place where people jump out of airplanes and build the parachute on descent (I hear they do that at Vanderbilt). Every Sports Scribe in America loves the Ravens and is far too-willing to overlook the fact that Joe Flacco has thrown more picks than touchdowns, and that Anquan Boldin can be shut down by Champ Bailey, and that the Broncos are considerably better as a unit against the run than they were last year. That means it is up to Flacco and his 2nd through 4th options to beat the Broncos, and if Orton is still breathing in the fourth quarter, I like the Broncos chances. History says that Denver has never won in this stadium and by the end of every trip to Baltimore in the last decade, the Ravens turn the Broncos into glue. History also says that when the Broncos give up a kickoff for a touchdown, are unable to convert a fourth and short late in the red zone, throw a fourth quarter pick, surrender six sacks, and they do this on the road, that they lose by three scores. They did all this last weekend and one. Call it lucky. Or persevering.

Atlanta at Mistake by the Lake: Yeah, Peyton Hillis. Just hold onto the football and don’t get injured, and you’ll be a new media darling. Too bad your quarterback is Jake Delhomme. Jake may never win another football game and he’s going against possibly the best team in football in Atlanta. This is a complete team on offense, and an improving team on defense. With nothing to worry about on the defensive side of the ball, I don’t see the Falcons having any problems on the offensive side of the football.

KC at Indy: How can you not be salivating as a fantasy owner if you own Peyton Manning in this game? Speaking of the law of averages, the Kansas City bye could not have happened at a worse time. Denver was drunk on their own success last year at 6-0, had just thumped San Diego at Qualcomm, and then promptly laid an egg in Baltimore coming off the bye. The worst thing a young team can have happen to them is to enjoy success and then break the routine. To have to go to Indy, and play a team that could be 4-0, but is “desperate” at 2-2, and face Manning? How many special teams touchdowns have the Colts given up this year? Zip. How many picks has Manning thrown this year? One. The Colts do have difficulty stopping the run, but the Chiefs haven’t beaten anyone due to a bruising running game: it’s been big plays at the expense of opposition stupidity and failures in discipline. This will not be close.

Wall Street at Houston: The G-Men enjoyed a bit of providence in the Bears last week and won’t get the same opportunities at Houston. But they will get sacks. The Texans surrender them. But what will undo the Giants is the running game of the Texans and the continued development of Matt Schaub. Additionally, the Texans defense gets back Brian Cushing. If you are 3-1 and you are home and the defending Defensive Rookie of the Year is only now making his debut and you have the leading rusher, and a quarterback that could throw for 5000 yards easily if you needed him to, and Mario Williams rushing the edge… you don’t have to worry about leaving the game in your kicker’s hands. Texans by two scores. Expect to see them flexed in on Sunday Nights late in the year.

Green Bay at Washington: Shanny dialed up a brilliant game plan last week, but benefited from Michael Vick’s injury. The Packers are in a bit of turmoil right now with no running game of their own. But they have an opportunistic defense that should stifle the Redskins, and as long as the Packers remain disciplined and don’t beat themselves, they should win. But in the last two games they’ve had one game with 18 penalties, and then let the Lions stick around way-too-long at home. Washington will win this game if it is close at the end, because those two experiences from the last two weeks are formative in teaching a team how to lose, and not win. Washington has done just the opposite, played within themselves and dictated tempo. Since they’re at home, and I think they prevail.

New Orleans at Arizona: How overdue is New Orleans to absolutely route somebody? Arizona may be the worst 2-2 team in recent memory and they are starting an undrafted quarterback against the Super Bowl Champs, a team that has under-performed in all four games this year. Derek Anderson is largely to blame, but having given up 40+ points twice already, is it far-fetched to think that they can hold the Saints under 30? And does anyone think Max Hall can put up 20 on New Orleans?

Tennessee at The All-American Meltdown: One week from now, Wade Phillips could be in a tie for first place in the NFC East or fired. That’s how big this game really is for Dallas. But all the combustibles are there and in place for the latter to be as likely as the former. The Giants, Redskins and Eagles are all poor teams. The Cowboys are not, but they lack chemistry, discipline and a head coach. I’ve come around on Poor Wade lately, reminded that he gave Rod Smith his chance and that whenever he was a defensive coordinator, his defenses were rock ‘em, sock ‘em, good. But the thing is that owners, in their hubris, love to promote guys who have mastered one aspect of the game, but lack managerial skill. Since Wade was coach of the Broncos, he has also reminded me of Ralph from the Simpsons. Even the Family Tree aspects of that reference are startling, as Wade is the son of Bum, and Ralph is the son of Chief Wiggum. Perhaps I’m just rooting against America’s Team, like some Commie, Pinko, Pacifist who wants anything patriotic or covered in stars to fail. Or maybe I just know too well guys born with their finger up their nose and think they’re well-equipped to coach a defensive unit, but not steer the rudder of a team that plays in a $1.4 billion stadium owned by a guy who would make Nero blush.

San Diego at Oakland: Apparently this is a rivalry game. Once again, it will likely be blacked out in Oakland. Oakland has only beat St. Louis, but that was the last time the Rams lost (that’s a weird fact). San Diego has relished in beating some bad teams, and given up huge plays in losses to Seattle and KC. Thankfully, San Diego will not need to be either composed or intelligent to beat the Raiders, merely more talented, which is never difficult.

Philly at San Fran: I think this will be an old-fashioned tail-whipping. No one would accuse Mike Singletary of being born with his finger up his nose, but he supports the Wade Phillips Doctrine: some men were meant to coach a single unit, and nothing more. This is far more common on the defensive side of the ball than offensive  (Buddy Ryan and Lovie Smith echo this trend). The ‘iggles are not a good football team and San Fran is way overdue to erupt. They’ve beat themselves every week this year, and that pattern will reappear from week to week. But at last, this is a prime game to see that pattern break.

Bizarro World at Jersey Shore: My goodness we live in a messed up country. Favre, Moss, the creepiest looking head coach of all-time, and fans that dress up in braided hair immortalizing marauding hordes known for some of the worst recorded human atrocities of all-time… and they aren’t the media sensation in this game? Say what you will about the media sensation, but the J-E-T-S truly are one of the best, and most complete teams in the game. It is an uncapped year, and the cap that might be removed is the cap on talented team meltdowns.