Category Archives: Market Data

The Market Peak, May 2013

Posted on May 16, 2013 | Leave a comment

Days on market continues to plummet and months of inventory is less than 3.5 months in half of our major MLS areas right now.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Market Data

Tagged , ,

The Stat Pack, January 2013: What’s Squeezing the Market?

Posted on February 20, 2013 | 1 Comment

We don’t believe in silver bullets. It’s why cable news doesn’t work well for us. Things don’t get easily distilled down into one minute 15 second soundbites of information.

We also believe that to really understand something, you have to do two things:
1.) Have a regular practice, and in real estate market reports, that means a somewhat religious consistency to doing the same data each and every month. It’s in exercises like these that patterns are best seen and understood.
2.) Thoughtful analysis comes from good questions. There are such things as dumb questions. But a bigger problem is taking things at face value. Prices are up. Supply is down. Demand is up. Contracts are up a lot. Well… why is all that happening?

As we change The Stat Pack this year into a blog format, this is our monthly second installment, on the theme of, “why’s that happening?” This month: What’s Squeezing the Market?

→ 1 Comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , ,

The Stat Pack, January 2013

Posted on February 19, 2013 | Leave a comment

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , ,

Greenshoots 2013: Western Colorado Springs (Both WES & OCC)

Posted on February 3, 2013 | Leave a comment

The goal was to get this done before the Super Bowl, and here we are: Western Colorado Springs, eight hours before kickoff.

Go Pepsi. I hate both teams.

Western Colorado Springs is always a hard one to get a finger on. The older a home is, the harder it is to price. The newer it is, the fewer generations of improvements have been made, theoretically the conformity should be tighter, the pricing more predictable (see Newport Heights and Stetson Hills for vivid examples of this effect). So make the homes 30 to 60 years old, put them near these big rock formations and a bunch of cool bars and restaurants, add in mountain bikes and walkability with predictable traffic patterns (like, none) and you get Old Colorado City and West MLS areas.

OLD COLORADO CITY was divided into three groups. We did not include areas south of Highway 24 primarily because of lack of data and variances due to new construction in Gold Hill Mesa. The three groups were pretty simple geographically: East of 8th Street; between 8th and 21st; west of 21st to 30th. Highway 24 was the southern boundary.

OCC east of 8th: this was the largest price elasticity we saw during this project. There was one occasion of a homes of similar size selling at 3 times the difference in price and numerous examples of homes similarly sized selling for 2 times the price of their peers. The area didn’t sell terribly well due to a high failure rate, but almost 40% of the homes sold in less than 30 days. 

OCC East of 8th Scattergram OCC East of 8th Neighborhood Patterns OCC East of 8th Buying Patterns OCC East of 8th Time to Sell

OCC between 8th and 21st: While the extreme fluctuations in pricing were less in this area, prices tended to be higher, and more “consistently inconsistent” with widespread variety in pricing.

OCC between 8th and 21st Scattergram OCC between 8th and 21st Neighborhood Patterns OCC between 8th and 21st Buying Patterns OCC between 8th and 21st Time to Sell

OCC between 21st and 30th: this is the stretch that we think has the most opportunity for investors looking to make short-term profits and for those looking to make a long-term buy-and-hold profit. The reason is walkability. This is the only section of Colorado Springs that will regularly score 75 or above on Walkscore.com. Not everyone wants that benefit. But given how scarce it is, we venture that there are far more that do want it, then the city offers. Add to that our little example of sizes of homes all selling from $173,000 to $175,000 in the last six months, and the investment merits of this area start to really shine.

OCC Between 21st and 30th Scattergram OCC Between 21st and 30th Neighborhood Patterns OCC Between 21st and 30th Time to Sell OCC Between 21st and 30th Buying Patterns

WEST (WES)

We wanted to add Roswell to this report along I-25, but it’s too bloody hard. The mapping is weird and the pockets of it are so many we did not feel that it would could be described by something as scientifically rigid as these graphs. So it was omitted as too difficult. Chelsea Glen was also omitted, although that was probably a mistake, because we included Canyon View and there were half as many sales in there this year as Chelsea Glen (which had a good year). So there, that we made a mistake and forgot one. Damn. The big three areas are all here: Pleasant Valley (and the mesa above); Holland Park; and the creme de la creme Kissing Camels.

Pleasant Valley: We’ll tell you something most other real estate websites won’t: if you want a really good home in Pleasant Valley, it’s probably a for-sale-by-owner purchase. We know, because we had one buyer offer on six different For-Sale-by-Owner properties last year, before they struck gold on number seven. It also means that we trust this data only partially. We know factually that a great number of sales happened in this area outside the MLS in 2012.

Pleasant Valley Scattergram Pleasant Valley Neighborhood Patterns Pleasant Valley Buying Patterns Pleasant Valley Time to Sell

Holland Park: Most of Holland Park’s sales were under $200,000 and most of the failed-to-sells were over $200,000 making this market somewhat predictable for the westside. Probability of sale was around average for the city, but it ended strong, with half of the available inventory at year’s end spoken for by contract.

Holland Park Scattergram Holland Park Holland Park Buying Patterns Holland Park Time to Sell

Kissing Camels: Prices did not have a good year in Kissing Camels with the average sale at $665,000, down from the upper $900′s a few years ago; but then, many of those fantastic mansions on the greens aren’t even for sale, so it’s not exactly an apples for apples comparison. It is notable how strong the market was between $550,000 and $800,000, and Cathedral Ridge now has dirt moving again. Kissing Camels Scattergram Kissing Camels Neighborhood Patterns Kissing Camels Time to Sell Kissing Camels Buying Patterns

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , ,

Greenshoots 2013: Northeast Colorado Springs

Posted on February 1, 2013 | Leave a comment

Within the city limits, on the big MLS map hanging on the office wall, is this big, giant area with rooftops. Northeast Colorado Springs (N/E) is a monster of an area, with a everything from inexpensive fixer uppers to the occasional million dollar mansion on the rim of University Park. Quite literally, it also has everything in-between.

We had some interesting discoveries this year in looking at N/E. Some of the most regular and easily predicted pricing is found here (Newport Heights), but also, there are fantastic pockets of opportunity. Let’s be honest, people are starting to get excited about real estate again, and by excited, we mean “making money.” The risk of flipping a home is still pretty significant, but Northeast has the prime spot: a four bedroom, two-car garage home in Vista Grande east of Union. The 100% price variance we saw in these areas on multiple occasions indicates that there are ample numbers of distressed homes selling at severe discounts, and a marketplace ready to buy turnkey quality. Since these are closed sales, too, it usually means that they’ll pass muster on appraisal. We also saw inventory levels at the start of the year at less than 40 days, a market time 80% faster than the already quick PPAR market.

This is the single largest blog post of the bunch due to the sheer volume of neighborhoods. We’ll start with the District 20 outlier in Northeast, Woodland Hills. All other neighborhoods are in Colorado Springs School District 11.

Woodland Hills (ACADEMY D20 SCHOOLS): Very regular pricing with an improved, turnkey market making up 2/3rds of the sales. Very high probability of sale.

Woodland Hills Neighborhood Patterns Woodland Hills Scattergram Woodland Hills Buying Patterns Woodland Hills Time to Sell

Colorado Springs District 11 N/E

Canyon View: this is an example of an area where the project exceeded the data. There isn’t much data – at all – to report on in Canyon View. Talk amongst yourselves…

CV Scattergram CV Neighborhood Patterns CV Buying Patterns

CV Time to Sell

Deliverance: because there were fewer sales, the two-market effect (turnkey; needs a lot of work) was less visible, but it’s still present in Deliverance.

Deliverance Scattergram Deliverance Neighborhood Patterns Deliverance Time to Sell Deliverance Buying Patterns

Erindale & Pulpit Rock: The numbers here say “stay away” because the average sales price was only $15,000 higher than the city, yet the probability of sale was 22% lower and an 8 month supply of housing that’s nearly double the city average. If nothing is selling, is that a smart investment? Unpacking the riddle, 2012 saw some crazy houses for sale in this area, and speaking individually, I got to show my first six-level home ever last year in here. There usually isn’t a market for that many stairs (or in that REO house’s case, pet urine), but that accounts for the much higher than normal failed-to-sell rate in 2012: weird, overpriced houses. The reality is, we’re pretty bullish on this area because the prices seem way too low for what you get (open space; healthy Ponderosa; views) and there’s a new twist: Dublin is now open through to Nevada. We think that’s a game-changer on this neighborhood, making it almost like an inexpensive westside enclave with the retail conveniences of Northeast. True to form, the year ended with a blitz in here, and while the graphic software is reporting 18 for sale, eight of those are spoken for and are actually pending-sale. That means the inventory is actually a normal 4.5 months based on sales rate.

Erindale and Pulpit Rock Scattergram Erindale and Pulpit Rock Neighborhood Patterns Erindale and Pulpit Rock Time to Sell Erindale and Pulpit Rock Buying Patterns

Greencrest: sold at a slower pace, but still commanded a pretty decent price.

Greencrest Scattergram Greencrest Neighborhood Patterns Greencrest Buying Patterns Greencrest Time to Sell

Garden Ranch: Garden Ranch is an area we spent a lot of time in during 2012, and it’s a superb example of the changing market. There are some huge lots in this area, surprise open spaces, and access into Palmer Park underneath Austin Bluffs. Oh… and it’s cheap compared to other parts of the city. The back end of Flintridge is a quiet little oasis. Savvy consumers figured this out, and it sold better than most other areas and embodied the “two market” effect we’ve seen in other places, with consistent pricing for improved turn-key properties and more scattered, inconsistent pricing for those needing a lot of work. Of special note: demand has been so great of late, inventory levels were at one month at the start of 2013.

Garden Ranch Scattergram Garden Ranch Neighborhood Patterns Garden Ranch Time to Sell Garden Ranch Buying Patterns

Newport Heights: Don’t bother arguing with an appraiser in Newport Heights. Pricing couldn’t be tidier or more associated with square footage. But it’s selling well, with a single home for sale at the start of the year (calculated as 20 days of inventory!).

Newport Heights Scattergram Newport Heights Neighborhood Buying Patterns Newport Heights Buying Pattern Newport Heights Time to Sell

Northwind: Northwind had an interesting pricing pattern that was highly regular… until $250,000. Then a single home sold way above the curve. Another very popular year-end area, with a mere month of available inventory.

Northwind Scattergram Northwind Neighborhood Patterns Northwind Buying Patterns Northwind Time to Sell

Park Vista: Park Vista is just to the northeast of Southern Vista Grande, but totally different, on half acre, county-zoned lots. With in-city, country-living and some big views, the area started to experience a Renaissance in 2012. Kind of fun: list your house for sale in May in here, because nothing happens until then, and it’s usually all over by Labor Day. See Buying Pattern. 

Park Vista Scattergram Park Vista Neighborhood Patterns Park Vista Buying Patterns Park Vista Time to Sell

Saddle Rock: Like many of the view-areas throughout Colorado Springs, Saddle Rock has custom homes and custom prices. Price is much more associated with lot and view and quality of house than simple square footage. 

Saddle Rock Scattergram Saddle Rock Neighborhood Patterns Saddle Rock Buying Patterns Saddle Rock Time to Sell

Sunset Ridge & Vista Mesa: this was the best selling area in Colorado Springs for homes in the upper $200,000′s. Consumers tended to prefer – significantly – homes with finished basements, showing a willingness to pay a premium for finished square footage.

Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Scattergram Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Neighborhood Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Buying Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Time to Sell

University Park: University Park had a similar probability of sale as neighboring Erindale, but an average price 80% higher. Wild price elasticity was exhibited here, a correlation again to views and house quality. Yet intriguingly, there was a large cluster of sales activity around the average pricepoint in the mid-$400,000′s; that’s unusual in a custom area, where prices tend to be more scattershot.

University Park Scattergram University Park Neighborhood Patterns University Park Time to Sell University Park Buying Patterns

Vista Grande. Technically Vista Grande is broken up into sub neighborhoods, but in the MLS descrition field, it usually just goes by “Vista Grande.” This presents an analytical and graphing challenge, so we had to break it into three different areas, somewhat arbitrarily: Southern Vista Grande, Eastern Vista Grande and Western Vista Grande. Southern Vista Grande is around Russell Middle School to Austin Bluffs and Academy. Eastern Vista Grande is above Russell, along Montebello (but below Saddle Rock) and up north to Deliverance and near Dublin stretching out to Flintridge. Western Vista Grande is west of Union and the newest of the areas. Notably, Southern Vista Grande tends to have one-car garages as frequently as two-car garages, and the other two areas tend to have two-car garages, hence one of the reasons for price (age of home tends to be older further south as well).

Eastern Vista Grande

Eastern Vista Grande Scattergram Eastern Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Southern Vista Grande

Southern Vista Grande Scattergram Southern Neighborhood Patterns Southern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Southern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Western Vista Grande

Western Vista Grande Scattergram Western Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Western Vista Grande Buying Patterns Western Vista Grande Time to Sell

Wagon Trails & Bridle Pass

Wagon Trails Scattergram Wagon Trails Neighborhood Patterns Wagon Trails Buying Patterns Wagon Trails Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , ,

Greenshoots 2013: Downtown Colorado Springs

Posted on January 31, 2013 | Leave a comment

We were selective in the area we are sharing information on in Central (CEN) Colorado Springs. The focus was on areas that we repeatedly show in. This restricted our reporting to five neighborhoods: Old North End, Bonnyville, Patty Jewett, Divine Redeemer, and north of Memorial Park.

Downtown runs counter to much of the Colorado Springs market. As much of the city is suburban, this is one of the only semi-urban areas in the county. As the average age of a dwelling is 1982, most of these homes are pre 1950, and laughably, most of the Old North End was built in 1898 (a banner year for permits! This is some misnomer of history). Last year, the probability of sale was lower in these areas with a considerably number of failed-to-sell listings in some areas. The big “but” in that statement is that good homes, in good shape, with modern updating… started selling for a whole lot more than they did in year’s past, and for quite a bit more in terms of gross dollars.

Old North End: There were only 2, but the $200 a square foot, over $500,000 home returned to downtown last year. The average price was only $440,000, low for Old North End standards, but there was a sharp uptick in transactions over $500,000.

Old North End Scattergram Old North End Buying Pattern Old North End Seasonal Pattern Old North End Time to Sell

Patty Jewett: “Patty” is always a popular place to hunt for homes, but a lot harder to find a good one. That only seems to be increasing with a precious single property for sale the day we ran the reports. Increasingly, we are hearing from buyers that “wish they could find a 3000 square foot home with a garage” in Patty Jewett. An interesting comment for a city that hasn’t seen much gentrification.

Patty Jewett Scattergram Patty Jewett Neighborhood Pattern Patty Jewett Buying Pattern Patty Jewett Time to Sell

Bonnyville: “Pull a price out of the air, and it’ll stick”. Welcome to Bonnyville.

Bonnyville Scattergram Bonnyville Neighborhood Patterns Bonnyville Buying Patterns Bonnyville Time to Sell

Divine Redeemer: Divine Redeemer sold at nearly the same probability as Patty Jewett, but at a lower average sales price than the tiny homes in Bonnyville.

Divine Redeemer Scattergram Divine Redeemer Neighborhood Patterns Divine Redeemer Buying Patterns Divine Redeemer Time to Sell

North of Memorial Park: Note, this is a select ribbon of homes four blocks wide between Boulder and Pikes Peak north of Memorial Park. It’s an area we show and sell in all the time, but it has the craziest price spectrum of any neighborhood in the county.

North of Memorial Park Scattergram North of Memorial Park Neighborhood Pricing North of Memorial Park Buying Pricing North of Memorial Park Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , ,

Greenshoots 2013: Black Forest Luxury Market

Posted on January 22, 2013 | Leave a comment

Yesterday we completed a report on the Tri-Lakes Market and indicated that we planned on excluding High Forest Ranch from that analysis because it was a more direct competitor with stretches of Black Forest District 20 to the south. High Forest is a gated neighborhood with 2+ acre lots in the trees on the very souther edge of Lewis-Palmer District 38; we are making the subjective call that the proximity to District 20 neighborhoods like Cathedral Pines, Abert Estates, New Breed Ranch, Bridle Bit and unincorporated stretches of El Paso County up roads like Peregrine and Holmes is more comparable than District 38 neighborhoods like Bent Tree or King’s Deer.

The expectation that these areas would have more inventory, sell slower, and have a lower probability of sale than other markets was proven correct. Surprisingly, the best selling neighborhood classification was Black Forest away from Shoup and Highway 83; this is the least defined and largest geographic area that we mapped, and it had the highest rate of sale in 2012, primarily because 81% of the market was between $500,000 and $600,000. High Forest Ranch had an over $700,000 average selling price in 2012, and Cathedral Pines was just shy of a million. So if there are surprises, it’s that this super-high-end market has less than a year’s worth of inventory to sell through right now, and in some cases, six to eight months of available product.

One last note: Cathedral Pines had 7 MLS recorded sales. This is a lower number, especially when three times as many homes registered as failed-to-sell in 2012. However… there were 10 land sales in 2012, a significant number. The story of reselling a luxury home today is the direct competition with building new. Buyers of land in Cathedral Pines in 2012 sometimes paid $0.30 on the dollar for their lot compared to prices paid in 2005 to 2007.

High Forest Ranch

High Forest Ranch Neighborhood Patterns High Forest Ranch Scattergram High Forest Ranch Buying Patterns High Forest Ranch Time to Sell

Cathedral Pines

Cathedral Pines Neighborhood Patterns Cathedral Pines Scattergram Cathedral Pines Buying Patterns Cathedral Pines Time to Sell

Around Cathedral Pines (Bridle Bit, Abert Estates, New Breed Ranch and unincorporated El Paso County around Shoup, east to Holmest)

Around Cathedral Pines Neighborhood Patterns Around Cathedral Pines Scattergram Around Cathedral Pines Buying Pattern Around Cathedral Pines Time to Sell

Black Forest acreage over $500,000 in District 20 (north of Cathedral Pines and east of Holmes).

Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Neighborhood Patterns Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Scattergram Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Buying Patterns Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 time to sell

 

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

 

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , , , , , , , , , ,

Greenshoots 2013: Tri-Lakes / Monument

Posted on January 21, 2013 | Leave a comment

It’s somewhat predictable that the market’s recent resurgence would be expressed in places like Briargate and the Northwest with desirable qualities, but generally, average sales prices within $75,000 to $100,000 of average. These are the areas someone familiar with Colorado Springs would expect to see a resurgence.

But what about the hire reaches of the market? We saw signs of growth happening in Southwest (S/W) Cheyenne Mountain District 12, and are seeing similar growth in Tri-Lakes/Monument.

We will start with the big kahuna of the North, Woodmoor. Because the mapping software can only digest so much data at once, and has to look at the entire history of the area because of some MLS idiosyncrasies, we had to break apart Woodmoor into three different sections, North, Central and South:

North Woodmoor including High Pines and Greenland Forest, generally north of the Country Club, south of County Line, east to Furrow, one of the newer stretches by average year of build (definitely true in High Pines and Greenland Forest)

Northern Woodmoor including High Pines and Greenland Forest Neighborhood PatternNorthern Woodmoor including High Pines and Greenland Forest ScattergramNorthern Woodmoor including High Pines and Greenland Forest Time to SellNorthern Woodmoor

Central Woodmoor, from Woodmoor Drive south to Highway 105, and east across Furrow to the border with King’s Deer.

Central Woodmoor and East of Furrow Buying Pattern Central Woodmoor and East of Furrow Neighborhood Patterns Central Woodmoor and East of Furrow Scattergram Central Woodmoor and East of Furrow Time to Sell

South Woodmoor, the rest of the neighborhood south of Highway 105
Woodmoor south of 105 Buying Patterns Woodmoor south of 105 Neighborhood Patterns Woodmoor south of 105 Scattergram Woodmoor south of 105 Time to Sell

Going west of the interstate to Palmer Lake, we found a market that was (as usual in Palmer Lake)  harder to define:

Palmer Lake Buying Patterns Palmer Lake Neighborhood Patterns Palmer Lake Scattergram Palmer Lake Time to Sell

One of the very best selling places in the region last year was in Jackson Creek. The doldrums that had plagued the area over the last couple of years loosened substantially.

Jackson Creek Buying Patterns Jackson Creek Neighborhood Patterns Jackson Creek Scattergram Jackson Creek Time to Sell

The higher end is very well-represented in Tri-Lakes, and we looked at King’s Deer, Fox Run, Bent Tree / Higby Estates. The truly high-end neighborhood of High Forest Ranch was excluded from this search so as to showcase it in a later survey that places it with the other luxurious high-end neighborhoods in Black Forest and NGT, like Cathedral Pines and the Abert/New Breed/Bridle Bit stretch along Shoup.

King’s Deer

Kings Deer Buying Paterns Kings Deer Neighborhood Paterns Kings Deer Scattergram Kings Deer Time to Sell

Fox Run

Fox Run Neighborhood Patterns Fox Run Scattergram Fox Run Buying Patterns Fox Run Time to Sell

Bent Tree / Higby Estates

Bent Tree Neighborhood Patterns Bent Tree Scattergram Bent Tree Buying Patterns Bent Tree Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Green Shoots: Northgate Analysis

Posted on January 16, 2013 | Leave a comment

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

How to Read these presentations for various Northgate Neighborhoods:

Neighborhood Patterns: There are three graphs, Odds of a Home Selling, Time to Sell 2012, and Buying Patterns 2012. In Northgate, there is a wide range of data for a series of neighborhoods all less than 10 minutes apart: The highest probability of sale over 30+ neighborhoods tracked so far is in Struthers Ranch. This has to be a relief for homeowners here who have seen lost value due to foreclosures. That tide has turned and the neighborhood’s popularity has surged. There is a significant amount of inventory in Middle Creek and Stone Crossing, presently. The rule of thumb that bigger is better clearly doesn’t apply here, as the third smallest sale last year was the highest value sale by several thousand dollars.

Scattergram: something we actively look for in measuring “a good buy” is if a home is selling at near the average price, the median price, and whether or not there is a significant variance in top to bottom prices per square footage. Appraisers like neighborhoods where all the homes hug the trendline forecasting predictable values. Our buyers that are looking to improve a property though, or buy “the cheapest house on the street” prefer neighborhoods with prices all over the place. Many of our buyers are looking for a “good buy” and one way to measure that is to find a neighborhood with a large variance in prices. Some neighborhoods, like Struthers Ranch, have very regular pricing structures that almost directly coincide with square footage. Similarly priced, but interestingly different is Trailridge. In Trailridge you can see that homes with a finished basement command a larger than normal premium over homes that lack a finished basement. There’ no surprise that Flying Horse, with prices from  $375,000 to $3.5 million would have a pricing structure all over the place, but possibly surprising is how wildly disparate the pricing was in 2012 in Gleneagle. In fact, in Gleneagle, the less expensive homes often sold below the price predicted in the trendline, and the luxurious larger homes sold at a premium. This is the kind of evidence that quality and improvements are rewarded with higher dollars. That’s price elasticity.

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

→ Leave a comment

Posted in Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data

Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Green Shoots: Northwest District 11 Analysis

Posted on January 15, 2013 | Leave a comment

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

This slideshow requires JavaScript.

How to Read these:

Neighborhood Patterns: There are FIVE graphs, Odds of a Home Selling, Time to Sell 2012, and Buying Patterns 2012. We then supplemented these with comparisons to 2011 for both Mountain Shadows and Oak Valley Ranch. Mountain Shadows was notably impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire with 346 homes lost to the fire. Oak Valley Ranch had the fire burn all around it’s borders, but no houses were burned. Initial guesses were that this market would be severely impacted in value. To date, that has not been the case. This has always been a seasonal market, and that was confirmed in 2012 with the highest prices generally paid June through October. The historic event to date has shown zero negative impact on pricing.

On the note of the Waldo Canyon Fire, the probability of sale in Mountain Shadows requires some deeper analysis than these visual graphs reveal. The rate of “failed-to-sell” listings is significant in Mountain Shadows and therefore the expressed probability of sale is less than 50%. But what must also be considered is that the available inventory, both today and at the time of the fire, has been historically low, and therefore a figure like “months of supply” is low, at 4.7 months at end of year, 2012.

Scattergram: something we actively look for in measuring “a good buy” is if a home is selling at near the average price, the median price, and whether or not there is a significant variance in top to bottom prices per square footage. Appraisers like neighborhoods where all the homes hug the trendline forecasting predictable values. WE LIKE neighborhoods that have prices all over the place. Many of our buyers are looking for a “good buy” and one way to measure that is to find a neighborhood with a large variance in prices. Pinon Valley is somewhat predictable in it’s pricing structure, but has multiple markets right alongside one another, with prices under $200,000, $200,000 to $225,000, $225,000 to $275,000, and then an over $300,000 market. Mountain Shadows has prices all over the place due to generations of construction and size of lot. That’s price elasticity.

These graphs also allow consumers to compare neighborhoods. Pinon Valley and Oak Valley Ranch are historically competitive, but the way pricing breaks out in Pinon Valley is more in clusters of like properties, while Oak Valley Ranch had more notable high dollar per square foot sales in 2012.

Some baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, Pinon Valley and Oak Valley Ranch returned some of the most exceptional probabilities of sale in Colorado Springs in 2012.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

→ Leave a comment

Posted in 2013 Where to Buy, Colorado Springs Real Estate, Market Data, Mountain Shadows

Tagged , , , , , ,