Tag Archives: University Park

Greenshoots 2013: Northeast Colorado Springs

Posted on February 1, 2013 | Leave a comment

Within the city limits, on the big MLS map hanging on the office wall, is this big, giant area with rooftops. Northeast Colorado Springs (N/E) is a monster of an area, with a everything from inexpensive fixer uppers to the occasional million dollar mansion on the rim of University Park. Quite literally, it also has everything in-between.

We had some interesting discoveries this year in looking at N/E. Some of the most regular and easily predicted pricing is found here (Newport Heights), but also, there are fantastic pockets of opportunity. Let’s be honest, people are starting to get excited about real estate again, and by excited, we mean “making money.” The risk of flipping a home is still pretty significant, but Northeast has the prime spot: a four bedroom, two-car garage home in Vista Grande east of Union. The 100% price variance we saw in these areas on multiple occasions indicates that there are ample numbers of distressed homes selling at severe discounts, and a marketplace ready to buy turnkey quality. Since these are closed sales, too, it usually means that they’ll pass muster on appraisal. We also saw inventory levels at the start of the year at less than 40 days, a market time 80% faster than the already quick PPAR market.

This is the single largest blog post of the bunch due to the sheer volume of neighborhoods. We’ll start with the District 20 outlier in Northeast, Woodland Hills. All other neighborhoods are in Colorado Springs School District 11.

Woodland Hills (ACADEMY D20 SCHOOLS): Very regular pricing with an improved, turnkey market making up 2/3rds of the sales. Very high probability of sale.

Woodland Hills Neighborhood Patterns Woodland Hills Scattergram Woodland Hills Buying Patterns Woodland Hills Time to Sell

Colorado Springs District 11 N/E

Canyon View: this is an example of an area where the project exceeded the data. There isn’t much data – at all – to report on in Canyon View. Talk amongst yourselves…

CV Scattergram CV Neighborhood Patterns CV Buying Patterns

CV Time to Sell

Deliverance: because there were fewer sales, the two-market effect (turnkey; needs a lot of work) was less visible, but it’s still present in Deliverance.

Deliverance Scattergram Deliverance Neighborhood Patterns Deliverance Time to Sell Deliverance Buying Patterns

Erindale & Pulpit Rock: The numbers here say “stay away” because the average sales price was only $15,000 higher than the city, yet the probability of sale was 22% lower and an 8 month supply of housing that’s nearly double the city average. If nothing is selling, is that a smart investment? Unpacking the riddle, 2012 saw some crazy houses for sale in this area, and speaking individually, I got to show my first six-level home ever last year in here. There usually isn’t a market for that many stairs (or in that REO house’s case, pet urine), but that accounts for the much higher than normal failed-to-sell rate in 2012: weird, overpriced houses. The reality is, we’re pretty bullish on this area because the prices seem way too low for what you get (open space; healthy Ponderosa; views) and there’s a new twist: Dublin is now open through to Nevada. We think that’s a game-changer on this neighborhood, making it almost like an inexpensive westside enclave with the retail conveniences of Northeast. True to form, the year ended with a blitz in here, and while the graphic software is reporting 18 for sale, eight of those are spoken for and are actually pending-sale. That means the inventory is actually a normal 4.5 months based on sales rate.

Erindale and Pulpit Rock Scattergram Erindale and Pulpit Rock Neighborhood Patterns Erindale and Pulpit Rock Time to Sell Erindale and Pulpit Rock Buying Patterns

Greencrest: sold at a slower pace, but still commanded a pretty decent price.

Greencrest Scattergram Greencrest Neighborhood Patterns Greencrest Buying Patterns Greencrest Time to Sell

Garden Ranch: Garden Ranch is an area we spent a lot of time in during 2012, and it’s a superb example of the changing market. There are some huge lots in this area, surprise open spaces, and access into Palmer Park underneath Austin Bluffs. Oh… and it’s cheap compared to other parts of the city. The back end of Flintridge is a quiet little oasis. Savvy consumers figured this out, and it sold better than most other areas and embodied the “two market” effect we’ve seen in other places, with consistent pricing for improved turn-key properties and more scattered, inconsistent pricing for those needing a lot of work. Of special note: demand has been so great of late, inventory levels were at one month at the start of 2013.

Garden Ranch Scattergram Garden Ranch Neighborhood Patterns Garden Ranch Time to Sell Garden Ranch Buying Patterns

Newport Heights: Don’t bother arguing with an appraiser in Newport Heights. Pricing couldn’t be tidier or more associated with square footage. But it’s selling well, with a single home for sale at the start of the year (calculated as 20 days of inventory!).

Newport Heights Scattergram Newport Heights Neighborhood Buying Patterns Newport Heights Buying Pattern Newport Heights Time to Sell

Northwind: Northwind had an interesting pricing pattern that was highly regular… until $250,000. Then a single home sold way above the curve. Another very popular year-end area, with a mere month of available inventory.

Northwind Scattergram Northwind Neighborhood Patterns Northwind Buying Patterns Northwind Time to Sell

Park Vista: Park Vista is just to the northeast of Southern Vista Grande, but totally different, on half acre, county-zoned lots. With in-city, country-living and some big views, the area started to experience a Renaissance in 2012. Kind of fun: list your house for sale in May in here, because nothing happens until then, and it’s usually all over by Labor Day. See Buying Pattern. 

Park Vista Scattergram Park Vista Neighborhood Patterns Park Vista Buying Patterns Park Vista Time to Sell

Saddle Rock: Like many of the view-areas throughout Colorado Springs, Saddle Rock has custom homes and custom prices. Price is much more associated with lot and view and quality of house than simple square footage. 

Saddle Rock Scattergram Saddle Rock Neighborhood Patterns Saddle Rock Buying Patterns Saddle Rock Time to Sell

Sunset Ridge & Vista Mesa: this was the best selling area in Colorado Springs for homes in the upper $200,000′s. Consumers tended to prefer – significantly – homes with finished basements, showing a willingness to pay a premium for finished square footage.

Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Scattergram Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Neighborhood Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Buying Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Time to Sell

University Park: University Park had a similar probability of sale as neighboring Erindale, but an average price 80% higher. Wild price elasticity was exhibited here, a correlation again to views and house quality. Yet intriguingly, there was a large cluster of sales activity around the average pricepoint in the mid-$400,000′s; that’s unusual in a custom area, where prices tend to be more scattershot.

University Park Scattergram University Park Neighborhood Patterns University Park Time to Sell University Park Buying Patterns

Vista Grande. Technically Vista Grande is broken up into sub neighborhoods, but in the MLS descrition field, it usually just goes by “Vista Grande.” This presents an analytical and graphing challenge, so we had to break it into three different areas, somewhat arbitrarily: Southern Vista Grande, Eastern Vista Grande and Western Vista Grande. Southern Vista Grande is around Russell Middle School to Austin Bluffs and Academy. Eastern Vista Grande is above Russell, along Montebello (but below Saddle Rock) and up north to Deliverance and near Dublin stretching out to Flintridge. Western Vista Grande is west of Union and the newest of the areas. Notably, Southern Vista Grande tends to have one-car garages as frequently as two-car garages, and the other two areas tend to have two-car garages, hence one of the reasons for price (age of home tends to be older further south as well).

Eastern Vista Grande

Eastern Vista Grande Scattergram Eastern Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Southern Vista Grande

Southern Vista Grande Scattergram Southern Neighborhood Patterns Southern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Southern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Western Vista Grande

Western Vista Grande Scattergram Western Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Western Vista Grande Buying Patterns Western Vista Grande Time to Sell

Wagon Trails & Bridle Pass

Wagon Trails Scattergram Wagon Trails Neighborhood Patterns Wagon Trails Buying Patterns Wagon Trails Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

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Where to Buy 2010 Part VI: Red Lights

Posted on December 7, 2009 | Leave a comment

The post that makes enemies faster than friends. In the interest of covering my own fanny, this is analysis based off of data that measures multiple metrics and then draws conclusions when comparing one set of data to another set. It is a formula set designed to assist buyers with purchasing decisions where their home-ownership may be less than 3 years. If that’s the case, The Red Light Properties have supply and demand trends that look like they will continue to put negative pressure on value. If you simply “must have this neighborhood”, or “must have this home”, or you plan on this being your last home purchase and you don’t care if it loses value or not… this post will mean nothing to you. This is a cold, calculated presentation of data as to whether or not these areas will appreciate (or depreciate further) in 2010. My forecast is that the average sales price all of these areas will continue to lose value next year.

To read about the Goal of This Where-to-Buy Series of Posts, Click Here.

To find out the recommended areas that have probably swung past the bottom of the pendulum and are already appreciating, read about The Green Lights. To see the Data for the Green Light Neighborhoods, that is found HERE.

For the bigger risk takers (but probably where the timing favors a turn to appreciation in later 2010), The Yellow Light areas are documented HERE. Note: I accidentally omitted Gleneagle in that post, which has stabilized pretty significantly in the last 18 months and will probably be in appreciation-mode by 3rd quarter, 2010. Up-to-Date Market Data is found here at THE STAT PACK link of www.BenjaminDay.com.

RED LIGHTS

The Red Lights for the most part represent neighborhoods where the average selling price is over $400,000. In some cases, even in the boom years of 2004 through early 2006, it was more probable that a home would fail to sell than actually sell in a ultra-high-end neighborhood like Kissing Camels or Broadmoor Resort. But the impact of the Great Recession, consumer pessimism, tightened underwriting and Jumbo Loan Regulations starting on any loan over $417,000, and the investor-fueled 1.5% to 3.0% penalty in interest-rate since September, 2007 has had a huge effect on the higher end. These are the same factors that have driven down the average sales price in Colorado Springs from over $270,000 in July, 2007 to $213,000 today: there is not only less demand for a high-end home, it’s just plain hard to buy one.

A Few Good Buys, but New and Expensive will Sit Forever:

Jackson Creek, Stone Crossing/Middle Creek, Erindale/Pulpit Rock and Sunset Mesa/Saddlerock all have average on-the-market values considerably higher than the year to date average sales price. All four have had less than a 47% probability of sale each of the last two years. All four have an average year-to-date sales price that is less than the six -year average. Of the four, Stone Crossing has withstood price pressure the most, only off a couple hundred dollars from the six year average. But the average sales price is only $20,000 higher than the year-to-date sales price and with 15 year-to-date sales and 18 on the market (15 months of inventory), the supply is overwhelming demand and will force values down.

Jackson Creek 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 89 89 99 82 50 46 76
Avg Price 306786 336210 369368 358065 349981 340884 343549
Expired/Failed 31 46 62 77 93 85 66
Total Units 44 135 161 159 143 131 142
Probability Sale 64% 66% 61% 52% 35% 35% 54%
Listed 34
Avg. List 363882
Sunset Mesa/Saddlerock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 84 85 61 43 35 41 58
Avg Price 291665 308965 330695 329555 305382 304813 311846
Expired/Failed 78 60 68 64 61 47 63
Total Units 44 145 129 107 96 88 102
Probability Sale 64% 59% 47% 40% 36% 47% 57%
Listed 24
Avg. List 463612
Stone Crossing 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 40 44 31 25 24 15 30
Avg Price 393924 471618 526273 516762 467600 474296 475079
Expired/Failed 4 6 17 23 37 21 18
Total Units 44 50 48 48 61 36 48
Probability Sale 91% 88% 65% 52% 39% 42% 62%
Listed 18
Avg. List 501788
Erindale/Pulpit Rock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 37 40 48 36 28 23 35
Avg Price 259744 291983 276232 269205 283110 249856 271688
Expired/Failed 42 29 39 38 37 28 36
Total Units 79 69 87 74 65 51 71
Probability Sale 47% 58% 55% 49% 43% 45% 50%
Listed 14
Avg. List 304339

Interestingly, all four areas have a pretty large price spectrum, from as little as $180,000 in Pulplit Rock to $600,000 along the cliff edges, $225,000 in Jackson creek to $650,000 for a newer Saddletree with huge lot and views. So to some degree, there are some very good buys in these neighborhoods. Homes priced less than the average sales price have a greater probability of sale. Homes priced 15 to 30% above average sale price however will have greater difficulty.

The Monument Funk

Woodmoor, Bent Tree/Higby and King’s Deer are Slow, Pretty Slow and Very Slow. Each of the last 3 years they have averaged less than a 47% chance of sale, and all have a year-to-date sales price that is significantly lower than the average price of all listings presently for sale. There is a 9 month supply of housing in Woodmoor, 16 months in Bent Tree and 20 months in King’s Deer. With so much of the “average” property in these areas valued at more than $500,000, the ramifications of the jumbo limit capped at $417,000 are huge: not many buyers have $80,000 or more to put down on a home. The rare, secondary financing that is available to buyers usually is no more than $50,000. So a home asking $550,000 in one of these areas will be competing with another, average-priced home. A buyer shopping in any of these areas could wield enormous leverage in terms of negotiating a lower price.

Bent Tree/Higby 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 27 22 23 14 11 10 18
Avg Price 623984 618202 752679 714000 718938 548322 662688
Expired/Failed 20 13 16 22 40 21 22
Total Units 47 35 39 36 51 31 40
Probability Sale 57% 63% 59% 39% 22% 32% 45%
Listed 15
Avg. List 870120
King’s Deer 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 28 45 30 22 21 15 27
Avg Price 553852 649716 669242 778349 613447 690833 659240
Expired/Failed 49 21 43 42 72 54 47
Total Units 77 66 73 64 93 69 74
Probability Sale 36% 68% 41% 34% 23% 22% 36%
Listed 27
Avg. List 787683
Woodmoor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 219 216 171 136 121 91 159
Avg Price 365452 413316 421580 428742 388008 393657 401793
Expired/Failed 172 111 114 153 149 142 140
Total Units 391 327 285 289 270 233 299
Probability Sale 56% 66% 60% 47% 45% 39% 53%
Listed 77
Avg. List 454801
Bent Tree/Higby 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 27 22 23 14 11 10 18
Avg Price 623984 618202 752679 714000 718938 548322 662688
Expired/Failed 20 13 16 22 40 21 22
Total Units 47 35 39 36 51 31 40
Probability Sale 57% 63% 59% 39% 22% 32% 45%
Listed 15
Avg. List 870120

AWOL Demand, Decent Supply

Three well known luxury areas have seen buyer demand dry up to the tune of a 1 in 3 probability of sale.

Upper Skyway 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 48 58 36 40 38 17 40
Avg Price 613814 620878 698243 602640 558110 569867 610592
Expired/Failed 25 35 34 58 32 35 37
Total Units 73 93 70 98 70 52 76
Probability Sale 66% 62% 51% 41% 54% 33% 52%
Listed 30
Avg. List 1136400
Cedar Heights 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 8 9 6 4 4 11 7
Avg Price 537611 600550 712333 560875 560875 544850 586182
Expired/Failed 18 9 14 20 19 20 17
Total Units 26 18 20 24 23 31 24
Probability Sale 31% 50% 30% 17% 17% 35% 30%
Listed 8
Avg. List 767112
Unviersity Park 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 29 24 22 15 15 12 20
Avg Price 502279 521746 621344 623465 629780 463813 560405
Expired/Failed 23 23 40 39 33 31 32
Total Units 52 47 62 54 48 43 51
Probability Sale 56% 51% 35% 28% 31% 28% 38%
Listed 22
Avg. List 642754

Cedar Heights is actually rebounding somewhat and has only 8 months of inventory right now. That’s reasonably low for Cedar Heights. The problem however is that the average asking price is a full $200,000 above what has been the average selling price. Recent sales have submarined values to 2004 levels and today’s buyers will likely make similar demands on the present listing inventory. Upper Skyway and Skyway Heights makes a somewhat surprising appearance. Broadmoor Bluffs and the Spires has registered a dramatically higher sales rate in 2008.  Companion neighborhoods Stratton Forest and Stratton Preserve just saw their first sale in two years last month. Perhaps it is the age of the inventory or the difficulty in access, but 2009 has not been a great year near Bear Creek Park. The most heavily impacted area by far, and possibly in the city, is University Park. University Park has a large number of million dollar dwellings and lots valued at over $250,000. However… there has been a 29% chance of sale over the last three years and the average selling price this year is well below the average in 2004. Worse news for present sellers: the average asking price is $180,000 above the average selling price year-to-date. Sellers today will very likely have to make big price concessions to move their property.

The Ultra High-End

The massive economic upheaval and how consumer values have changed (and how they have stayed the same) is readily evident in three neighborhoods known for million dollar properties. The Broadmoor and Kissing Camels are hard places to sell a home, but are showing signs in 2009 that traditional neighborhoods commonly associated with luxury (the Broadmoor) and locations with a true, one-of-a-kind location (Kissing Camels) have value, even in a bad economy. The Broadmoor Resort meanwhile shows the difficulty of selling in a true custom-home neighborhood: one man’s custom, is another man’s consolation. There is a single MLS sale recorded in the Resort this year (translates to 14.8 years worth of inventory). There are additional new homeowners this year in the Resort, but the idea of buying someone else’s home has less value when builders are willing to build “exactly” what they want… and charge less than they did four years ago.

Broadmoor Resort 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 6 17 17 9 6 1 9
Avg Price 1068448 1299786 1392895 1637777 1306333 790000 1249207
Expired/Failed 31 28 16 15 13 18 20
Total Units 37 45 33 24 19 19 30
Probability Sale 16% 38% 52% 38% 32% 5% 32%
Listed 16
Avg. List 1921875
Kissing Camels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 12 16 24 16 6 9 14
Avg Price 736666 790402 971606 1055814 935000 826700 886031
Expired/Failed 15 19 34 21 36 32 26
Total Units 27 35 58 37 42 41 40
Probability Sale 44% 46% 41% 43% 14% 22% 35%
Listed 28
Avg. List 930487
Broadmoor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 36 40 21 19 27 24 28
Avg Price 750302 807591 1086173 1085915 825496 673337 871469
Expired/Failed 44 37 35 45 25 29 36
Total Units 80 77 56 64 52 53 64
Probability Sale 45% 52% 38% 30% 52% 45% 44%
Listed 28
Avg. List 1420785

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