What would be stranger, a real estate market recovery or the Broncos winning the AFC West? Both would be pretty weird, right? As of November 8, 2011, all the data is in place for a real estate market recovery locally. That does not mean a market recovery is about to happen. It doesn’t even mean it should happen. It just means that it can. The only way it will happen is if consumers allow it, and by consumers, I mean both buyers and sellers. The market has 4.00% interest rates. There last time there were so few homes for sale in November it was 2001… as in ten years ago. So throw out “lots of inventory to choose from” because it is not true. There is tight inventory. There is only 5.22 months of inventory several months after peak season.
Prices are down on average 4.5% for the year, yet there is only a 4 month supply of housing for properties under $275,000 where 78% of the transactions have occurred over the last 90 days. In other words: the real estate side of the ledger is really tight. And yet: an opportunity is only an opportunity if there is risk. Want a real thrill? I mean a real thrill? Jump out of an airplane. The speed. The rush of the air. The adrenaline. The catch: you have to jump out of an airplane. But boy… what an opportunity. The focus of the Stat Pack this month is to dial in on the personal rationalizations, dreams and hopes of people making elective home-buying and home-selling decisions. The seeds of 2012 market activity are sewn now, like tulip and crocus bulbs underneath the winter mulch. The eureka moments of “I don’t need all this space”, “honey, did you see their master bedroom?”, “We need more space with twins coming”, “this commute has gone on long enough” tend to happen now, during the coming holiday season when individuals gather at other houses and formative real estate decisions germinate. As consumers begin to form their opinions and thoughts, they should do so with accurate information, but also, personal reflection and introspection. What are you trying to accomplish with your home sale? What’s your why? Why do you say you need more space? You said you wanted a nice master bathroom, but then you moved onto a benefit of “light and airy”… what will the benefit of this next purchase look like? Where will you be in life in two years? Ten? Do you want to be tied down to one place for at least a half decade? How much work around the place will your lifestyle allow? How many weekends are you willing to donate, vacation time and favors cashed in? How secure is your job? How much of your life is really under your control? The data says do it. Now what does your gut say?