Green Shoots, 2013: Briargate Analysis

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The Geek Flag is flying high this year. This is the first analysis of the 11 MLS areas we most commonly sell in. We broke down these 11 MLS areas into a total of 95 different neighborhoods and blew them apart to see what happened in 2012.

Some baselines… Probability of sale last year was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year.

How to Read these:

Neighborhood Patterns: There are three graphs, Odds of a Home Selling, Time to Sell, and Time of Year to Sell. When applicable, we added notes. You can pause on any of the pages.

Scattergram: something we actively look for in measuring “a good buy” is if a home is selling at near the average price, the median price, and whether or not there is a significant variance in top to bottom prices per square footage. Appraisers like neighborhoods where all the homes hug the trendline forecasting predictable values. WE LIKE neighborhoods that have prices all over the place. Many of our buyer are looking for a “good buy” and one way to measure that is to find a neighborhood with a large variance in prices. Cordera for instance has an average square footage around 3500 square feet. There was a sale around $310,000 last year at that square footage and another around $530,000. The predicted price for that size home is $395,000. So one sold WAY above the trendline, and another WAY below. That’s price elasticity.

These graphs also allow consumers to compare neighborhoods. Using Cordera again as an example, the average square footage sold last year was around 250 square feet smaller than 80924 neighbor Wolf Ranch. However, Wolf Ranch homes sold on average for almost $50,000 less, and with far less variety in pricing.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

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