Green Shoots 2013: Northwest District 20 Analysis

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Some baselines… Probability of sale last year was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year.

How to Read these:

Neighborhood Patterns: There are three graphs, Odds of a Home Selling, Time to Sell, and Time of Year to Sell. When applicable, we added notes. You can pause on any of the pages. Most of N/W D20 sold at 55% or better, with Pinecliff being the big exception, selling around 40%. This is a seasonal market, as reflected in the highest prices generally paid July through October (of added value, since this entire area was evacuated during the Waldo Canyon Fire, an event which to date has shown zero negative impact on pricing).

Scattergram: something we actively look for in measuring “a good buy” is if a home is selling at near the average price, the median price, and whether or not there is a significant variance in top to bottom prices per square footage. Appraisers like neighborhoods where all the homes hug the trendline forecasting predictable values. WE LIKE neighborhoods that have prices all over the place. Many of our buyer are looking for a “good buy” and one way to measure that is to find a neighborhood with a large variance in prices. Pinecliff for instance has an incredible amount of variance in pricing, with home sales at $82/square foot and $143/square foot just in 2012. Raven Hills shows a negative trendline, meaning that square footage and price are essentially disassociated from one another, and turnkey, durable investments sell for a bundle, and homes viewed as a project… sell for a lot less. That’s price elasticity.

These graphs also allow consumers to compare neighborhoods. There are aspects that make Tamarron, Comstock Village and Golden Hills different, despite their geographic proximity.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer timeBenjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

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