Green Shoots: Northwest District 11 Analysis

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How to Read these:

Neighborhood Patterns: There are FIVE graphs, Odds of a Home Selling, Time to Sell 2012, and Buying Patterns 2012. We then supplemented these with comparisons to 2011 for both Mountain Shadows and Oak Valley Ranch. Mountain Shadows was notably impacted by the Waldo Canyon Fire with 346 homes lost to the fire. Oak Valley Ranch had the fire burn all around it’s borders, but no houses were burned. Initial guesses were that this market would be severely impacted in value. To date, that has not been the case. This has always been a seasonal market, and that was confirmed in 2012 with the highest prices generally paid June through October. The historic event to date has shown zero negative impact on pricing.

On the note of the Waldo Canyon Fire, the probability of sale in Mountain Shadows requires some deeper analysis than these visual graphs reveal. The rate of “failed-to-sell” listings is significant in Mountain Shadows and therefore the expressed probability of sale is less than 50%. But what must also be considered is that the available inventory, both today and at the time of the fire, has been historically low, and therefore a figure like “months of supply” is low, at 4.7 months at end of year, 2012.

Scattergram: something we actively look for in measuring “a good buy” is if a home is selling at near the average price, the median price, and whether or not there is a significant variance in top to bottom prices per square footage. Appraisers like neighborhoods where all the homes hug the trendline forecasting predictable values. WE LIKE neighborhoods that have prices all over the place. Many of our buyers are looking for a “good buy” and one way to measure that is to find a neighborhood with a large variance in prices. Pinon Valley is somewhat predictable in it’s pricing structure, but has multiple markets right alongside one another, with prices under $200,000, $200,000 to $225,000, $225,000 to $275,000, and then an over $300,000 market. Mountain Shadows has prices all over the place due to generations of construction and size of lot. That’s price elasticity.

These graphs also allow consumers to compare neighborhoods. Pinon Valley and Oak Valley Ranch are historically competitive, but the way pricing breaks out in Pinon Valley is more in clusters of like properties, while Oak Valley Ranch had more notable high dollar per square foot sales in 2012.

Some baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, Pinon Valley and Oak Valley Ranch returned some of the most exceptional probabilities of sale in Colorado Springs in 2012.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer timeBenjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

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