Green Shoots: Northgate Analysis

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How to Read these presentations for various Northgate Neighborhoods:

Neighborhood Patterns: There are three graphs, Odds of a Home Selling, Time to Sell 2012, and Buying Patterns 2012. In Northgate, there is a wide range of data for a series of neighborhoods all less than 10 minutes apart: The highest probability of sale over 30+ neighborhoods tracked so far is in Struthers Ranch. This has to be a relief for homeowners here who have seen lost value due to foreclosures. That tide has turned and the neighborhood’s popularity has surged. There is a significant amount of inventory in Middle Creek and Stone Crossing, presently. The rule of thumb that bigger is better clearly doesn’t apply here, as the third smallest sale last year was the highest value sale by several thousand dollars.

Scattergram: something we actively look for in measuring “a good buy” is if a home is selling at near the average price, the median price, and whether or not there is a significant variance in top to bottom prices per square footage. Appraisers like neighborhoods where all the homes hug the trendline forecasting predictable values. Our buyers that are looking to improve a property though, or buy “the cheapest house on the street” prefer neighborhoods with prices all over the place. Many of our buyers are looking for a “good buy” and one way to measure that is to find a neighborhood with a large variance in prices. Some neighborhoods, like Struthers Ranch, have very regular pricing structures that almost directly coincide with square footage. Similarly priced, but interestingly different is Trailridge. In Trailridge you can see that homes with a finished basement command a larger than normal premium over homes that lack a finished basement. There’ no surprise that Flying Horse, with prices from  $375,000 to $3.5 million would have a pricing structure all over the place, but possibly surprising is how wildly disparate the pricing was in 2012 in Gleneagle. In fact, in Gleneagle, the less expensive homes often sold below the price predicted in the trendline, and the luxurious larger homes sold at a premium. This is the kind of evidence that quality and improvements are rewarded with higher dollars. That’s price elasticity.

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer timeBenjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 14, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

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