Greenshoots 2013: Black Forest Luxury Market

Yesterday we completed a report on the Tri-Lakes Market and indicated that we planned on excluding High Forest Ranch from that analysis because it was a more direct competitor with stretches of Black Forest District 20 to the south. High Forest is a gated neighborhood with 2+ acre lots in the trees on the very souther edge of Lewis-Palmer District 38; we are making the subjective call that the proximity to District 20 neighborhoods like Cathedral Pines, Abert Estates, New Breed Ranch, Bridle Bit and unincorporated stretches of El Paso County up roads like Peregrine and Holmes is more comparable than District 38 neighborhoods like Bent Tree or King’s Deer.

The expectation that these areas would have more inventory, sell slower, and have a lower probability of sale than other markets was proven correct. Surprisingly, the best selling neighborhood classification was Black Forest away from Shoup and Highway 83; this is the least defined and largest geographic area that we mapped, and it had the highest rate of sale in 2012, primarily because 81% of the market was between $500,000 and $600,000. High Forest Ranch had an over $700,000 average selling price in 2012, and Cathedral Pines was just shy of a million. So if there are surprises, it’s that this super-high-end market has less than a year’s worth of inventory to sell through right now, and in some cases, six to eight months of available product.

One last note: Cathedral Pines had 7 MLS recorded sales. This is a lower number, especially when three times as many homes registered as failed-to-sell in 2012. However… there were 10 land sales in 2012, a significant number. The story of reselling a luxury home today is the direct competition with building new. Buyers of land in Cathedral Pines in 2012 sometimes paid $0.30 on the dollar for their lot compared to prices paid in 2005 to 2007.

High Forest Ranch

High Forest Ranch Neighborhood Patterns High Forest Ranch Scattergram High Forest Ranch Buying Patterns High Forest Ranch Time to Sell

Cathedral Pines

Cathedral Pines Neighborhood Patterns Cathedral Pines Scattergram Cathedral Pines Buying Patterns Cathedral Pines Time to Sell

Around Cathedral Pines (Bridle Bit, Abert Estates, New Breed Ranch and unincorporated El Paso County around Shoup, east to Holmest)

Around Cathedral Pines Neighborhood Patterns Around Cathedral Pines Scattergram Around Cathedral Pines Buying Pattern Around Cathedral Pines Time to Sell

Black Forest acreage over $500,000 in District 20 (north of Cathedral Pines and east of Holmes).

Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Neighborhood Patterns Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Scattergram Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 Buying Patterns Black Forest D20 away from Shoup and 83 time to sell

 

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer timeBenjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of  real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 .  RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy.  Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

 

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