Greenshoots 2013: Northeast Colorado Springs

Within the city limits, on the big MLS map hanging on the office wall, is this big, giant area with rooftops. Northeast Colorado Springs (N/E) is a monster of an area, with a everything from inexpensive fixer uppers to the occasional million dollar mansion on the rim of University Park. Quite literally, it also has everything in-between.

We had some interesting discoveries this year in looking at N/E. Some of the most regular and easily predicted pricing is found here (Newport Heights), but also, there are fantastic pockets of opportunity. Let’s be honest, people are starting to get excited about real estate again, and by excited, we mean “making money.” The risk of flipping a home is still pretty significant, but Northeast has the prime spot: a four bedroom, two-car garage home in Vista Grande east of Union. The 100% price variance we saw in these areas on multiple occasions indicates that there are ample numbers of distressed homes selling at severe discounts, and a marketplace ready to buy turnkey quality. Since these are closed sales, too, it usually means that they’ll pass muster on appraisal. We also saw inventory levels at the start of the year at less than 40 days, a market time 80% faster than the already quick PPAR market.

This is the single largest blog post of the bunch due to the sheer volume of neighborhoods. We’ll start with the District 20 outlier in Northeast, Woodland Hills. All other neighborhoods are in Colorado Springs School District 11.

Woodland Hills (ACADEMY D20 SCHOOLS): Very regular pricing with an improved, turnkey market making up 2/3rds of the sales. Very high probability of sale.

Woodland Hills Neighborhood Patterns Woodland Hills Scattergram Woodland Hills Buying Patterns Woodland Hills Time to Sell

Colorado Springs District 11 N/E

Canyon View: this is an example of an area where the project exceeded the data. There isn’t much data – at all – to report on in Canyon View. Talk amongst yourselves…

CV Scattergram CV Neighborhood Patterns CV Buying Patterns

CV Time to Sell

Deliverance: because there were fewer sales, the two-market effect (turnkey; needs a lot of work) was less visible, but it’s still present in Deliverance.

Deliverance Scattergram Deliverance Neighborhood Patterns Deliverance Time to Sell Deliverance Buying Patterns

Erindale & Pulpit Rock: The numbers here say “stay away” because the average sales price was only $15,000 higher than the city, yet the probability of sale was 22% lower and an 8 month supply of housing that’s nearly double the city average. If nothing is selling, is that a smart investment? Unpacking the riddle, 2012 saw some crazy houses for sale in this area, and speaking individually, I got to show my first six-level home ever last year in here. There usually isn’t a market for that many stairs (or in that REO house’s case, pet urine), but that accounts for the much higher than normal failed-to-sell rate in 2012: weird, overpriced houses. The reality is, we’re pretty bullish on this area because the prices seem way too low for what you get (open space; healthy Ponderosa; views) and there’s a new twist: Dublin is now open through to Nevada. We think that’s a game-changer on this neighborhood, making it almost like an inexpensive westside enclave with the retail conveniences of Northeast. True to form, the year ended with a blitz in here, and while the graphic software is reporting 18 for sale, eight of those are spoken for and are actually pending-sale. That means the inventory is actually a normal 4.5 months based on sales rate.

Erindale and Pulpit Rock Scattergram Erindale and Pulpit Rock Neighborhood Patterns Erindale and Pulpit Rock Time to Sell Erindale and Pulpit Rock Buying Patterns

Greencrest: sold at a slower pace, but still commanded a pretty decent price.

Greencrest Scattergram Greencrest Neighborhood Patterns Greencrest Buying Patterns Greencrest Time to Sell

Garden Ranch: Garden Ranch is an area we spent a lot of time in during 2012, and it’s a superb example of the changing market. There are some huge lots in this area, surprise open spaces, and access into Palmer Park underneath Austin Bluffs. Oh… and it’s cheap compared to other parts of the city. The back end of Flintridge is a quiet little oasis. Savvy consumers figured this out, and it sold better than most other areas and embodied the “two market” effect we’ve seen in other places, with consistent pricing for improved turn-key properties and more scattered, inconsistent pricing for those needing a lot of work. Of special note: demand has been so great of late, inventory levels were at one month at the start of 2013.

Garden Ranch Scattergram Garden Ranch Neighborhood Patterns Garden Ranch Time to Sell Garden Ranch Buying Patterns

Newport Heights: Don’t bother arguing with an appraiser in Newport Heights. Pricing couldn’t be tidier or more associated with square footage. But it’s selling well, with a single home for sale at the start of the year (calculated as 20 days of inventory!).

Newport Heights Scattergram Newport Heights Neighborhood Buying Patterns Newport Heights Buying Pattern Newport Heights Time to Sell

Northwind: Northwind had an interesting pricing pattern that was highly regular… until $250,000. Then a single home sold way above the curve. Another very popular year-end area, with a mere month of available inventory.

Northwind Scattergram Northwind Neighborhood Patterns Northwind Buying Patterns Northwind Time to Sell

Park Vista: Park Vista is just to the northeast of Southern Vista Grande, but totally different, on half acre, county-zoned lots. With in-city, country-living and some big views, the area started to experience a Renaissance in 2012. Kind of fun: list your house for sale in May in here, because nothing happens until then, and it’s usually all over by Labor Day. See Buying Pattern. 

Park Vista Scattergram Park Vista Neighborhood Patterns Park Vista Buying Patterns Park Vista Time to Sell

Saddle Rock: Like many of the view-areas throughout Colorado Springs, Saddle Rock has custom homes and custom prices. Price is much more associated with lot and view and quality of house than simple square footage. 

Saddle Rock Scattergram Saddle Rock Neighborhood Patterns Saddle Rock Buying Patterns Saddle Rock Time to Sell

Sunset Ridge & Vista Mesa: this was the best selling area in Colorado Springs for homes in the upper $200,000’s. Consumers tended to prefer – significantly – homes with finished basements, showing a willingness to pay a premium for finished square footage.

Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Scattergram Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Neighborhood Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Buying Patterns Sunset Ridge and Vista Mesa Time to Sell

University Park: University Park had a similar probability of sale as neighboring Erindale, but an average price 80% higher. Wild price elasticity was exhibited here, a correlation again to views and house quality. Yet intriguingly, there was a large cluster of sales activity around the average pricepoint in the mid-$400,000’s; that’s unusual in a custom area, where prices tend to be more scattershot.

University Park Scattergram University Park Neighborhood Patterns University Park Time to Sell University Park Buying Patterns

Vista Grande. Technically Vista Grande is broken up into sub neighborhoods, but in the MLS descrition field, it usually just goes by “Vista Grande.” This presents an analytical and graphing challenge, so we had to break it into three different areas, somewhat arbitrarily: Southern Vista Grande, Eastern Vista Grande and Western Vista Grande. Southern Vista Grande is around Russell Middle School to Austin Bluffs and Academy. Eastern Vista Grande is above Russell, along Montebello (but below Saddle Rock) and up north to Deliverance and near Dublin stretching out to Flintridge. Western Vista Grande is west of Union and the newest of the areas. Notably, Southern Vista Grande tends to have one-car garages as frequently as two-car garages, and the other two areas tend to have two-car garages, hence one of the reasons for price (age of home tends to be older further south as well).

Eastern Vista Grande

Eastern Vista Grande Scattergram Eastern Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Eastern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Southern Vista Grande

Southern Vista Grande Scattergram Southern Neighborhood Patterns Southern Vista Grande Buying Patterns Southern Vista Grande Time to Sell

Western Vista Grande

Western Vista Grande Scattergram Western Vista Grande Neighborhood Patterns Western Vista Grande Buying Patterns Western Vista Grande Time to Sell

Wagon Trails & Bridle Pass

Wagon Trails Scattergram Wagon Trails Neighborhood Patterns Wagon Trails Buying Patterns Wagon Trails Time to Sell

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

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