Greenshoots 2013: Western Colorado Springs (Both WES & OCC)

The goal was to get this done before the Super Bowl, and here we are: Western Colorado Springs, eight hours before kickoff.

Go Pepsi. I hate both teams.

Western Colorado Springs is always a hard one to get a finger on. The older a home is, the harder it is to price. The newer it is, the fewer generations of improvements have been made, theoretically the conformity should be tighter, the pricing more predictable (see Newport Heights and Stetson Hills for vivid examples of this effect). So make the homes 30 to 60 years old, put them near these big rock formations and a bunch of cool bars and restaurants, add in mountain bikes and walkability with predictable traffic patterns (like, none) and you get Old Colorado City and West MLS areas.

OLD COLORADO CITY was divided into three groups. We did not include areas south of Highway 24 primarily because of lack of data and variances due to new construction in Gold Hill Mesa. The three groups were pretty simple geographically: East of 8th Street; between 8th and 21st; west of 21st to 30th. Highway 24 was the southern boundary.

OCC east of 8th: this was the largest price elasticity we saw during this project. There was one occasion of a homes of similar size selling at 3 times the difference in price and numerous examples of homes similarly sized selling for 2 times the price of their peers. The area didn’t sell terribly well due to a high failure rate, but almost 40% of the homes sold in less than 30 days. 

OCC East of 8th Scattergram OCC East of 8th Neighborhood Patterns OCC East of 8th Buying Patterns OCC East of 8th Time to Sell

OCC between 8th and 21st: While the extreme fluctuations in pricing were less in this area, prices tended to be higher, and more “consistently inconsistent” with widespread variety in pricing.

OCC between 8th and 21st Scattergram OCC between 8th and 21st Neighborhood Patterns OCC between 8th and 21st Buying Patterns OCC between 8th and 21st Time to Sell

OCC between 21st and 30th: this is the stretch that we think has the most opportunity for investors looking to make short-term profits and for those looking to make a long-term buy-and-hold profit. The reason is walkability. This is the only section of Colorado Springs that will regularly score 75 or above on Walkscore.com. Not everyone wants that benefit. But given how scarce it is, we venture that there are far more that do want it, then the city offers. Add to that our little example of sizes of homes all selling from $173,000 to $175,000 in the last six months, and the investment merits of this area start to really shine.

OCC Between 21st and 30th Scattergram OCC Between 21st and 30th Neighborhood Patterns OCC Between 21st and 30th Time to Sell OCC Between 21st and 30th Buying Patterns

WEST (WES)

We wanted to add Roswell to this report along I-25, but it’s too bloody hard. The mapping is weird and the pockets of it are so many we did not feel that it would could be described by something as scientifically rigid as these graphs. So it was omitted as too difficult. Chelsea Glen was also omitted, although that was probably a mistake, because we included Canyon View and there were half as many sales in there this year as Chelsea Glen (which had a good year). So there, that we made a mistake and forgot one. Damn. The big three areas are all here: Pleasant Valley (and the mesa above); Holland Park; and the creme de la creme Kissing Camels.

Pleasant Valley: We’ll tell you something most other real estate websites won’t: if you want a really good home in Pleasant Valley, it’s probably a for-sale-by-owner purchase. We know, because we had one buyer offer on six different For-Sale-by-Owner properties last year, before they struck gold on number seven. It also means that we trust this data only partially. We know factually that a great number of sales happened in this area outside the MLS in 2012.

Pleasant Valley Scattergram Pleasant Valley Neighborhood Patterns Pleasant Valley Buying Patterns Pleasant Valley Time to Sell

Holland Park: Most of Holland Park’s sales were under $200,000 and most of the failed-to-sells were over $200,000 making this market somewhat predictable for the westside. Probability of sale was around average for the city, but it ended strong, with half of the available inventory at year’s end spoken for by contract.

Holland Park Scattergram Holland Park Holland Park Buying Patterns Holland Park Time to Sell

Kissing Camels: Prices did not have a good year in Kissing Camels with the average sale at $665,000, down from the upper $900’s a few years ago; but then, many of those fantastic mansions on the greens aren’t even for sale, so it’s not exactly an apples for apples comparison. It is notable how strong the market was between $550,000 and $800,000, and Cathedral Ridge now has dirt moving again. Kissing Camels Scattergram Kissing Camels Neighborhood Patterns Kissing Camels Time to Sell Kissing Camels Buying Patterns

Some MLS Marketwide baselines… Probability of sale last year for the entire MLS was 63.8%. That was the highest probability since 2005. These graphs sometimes reflect mostly lower numbers, but that is because the software counts under contract properties as still “active”. In essence, these are contracts, and in certain cases, we notated what happens to months of inventory and probability of sale if you “count the contracts” that are there at the start of the year. Saying that, for the most part, Northgate inventories are low carrying over into 2013, but there are not a lot of under contracts in these neighorhoods outside of Flying Horse.

If you would like any of these slides emailed to you for specific information, hit me up at Benjamin@BenjaminDay.com. Yes, we realize that they read a little small, but we’re preciously attached to our WordPress format, so, sorry.

The software used to create these graphs is from http://www.Focus1st.com and we used a date range of January 1, 2012 to January 11/14, 2013 for all of the searches, doing as many as possible on two different business days to get a competitive comparison for a single snapshot in time.

Disclaimer time: Benjamin Day composed this blog post and is solely responsible for it’s content. This information reflects data and opinion of real estate licensee in The State of Colorado. Based on information from the Pikes Peak REALTOR Services Corp. (“RSC”), for the period January 1, 2012 through January 21, 2013 . RSC does not guarantee or is in any way responsible for its accuracy. Data maintained by RSC may not reflect all real estate activity in the market.

 

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