Tag Archives: 80920 Market Data

The Stat Pack after the Downgrade

This post rated AA+.

From the subjective analysis that concludes the forthcoming August 2011 Stat Pack.

Advice for market participants:
SELLERS: You are right to believe that absolutely everything favors buyers right now including the price tag on your house. The question you must ask yourself is this: if you were a buyer in this market and this was the first-time you encountered your house, would you buy it? Would you buy your house during a time when the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is questionable? When the US lost it’s AAA credit-rating? When job security was so tenuous? Yes, this is made up for by the fact that values are depressed, interest rates are incredibly low, and there are 20% fewer homes to choose from then just one-year ago. While all the data is positive as far as “the deal” is concerned, buyers are taxed with everyday concerns that make ANY compelling decision to buy your home  or someone else’s, extremely difficult. Whatever you can do to mitigate those concerns: do it.
BUYERS: This is the very definition of a kick-yourself market. Will you kick yourself for buying in this market? Or will you kick yourself for missing the boat and not buying? EITHER could be true. YOU are the only one that can answer that question, and it must be answered based on your personal situation. In the last 40 years, housing has not been this affordable. And at the same time, the perceived risk of making any major financial investment due to multiple circumstances beyond your control has never appeared greater. If you are in it for the long-haul, and that is defined as a period of time longer than five years of occupancy and ownership, then this is a brilliant market of markets to buy into. If you have any degree of uncertainty about five years of ownership, you best act quick on any decent rental, because there is only 1 – 3% occupancy out there in single-family rental properties.
Analysis:
A memory from my time studying history at Colorado College: freshmen regularly observed that “we learn from history” and “history repeats itself”. These comments would then be thrown out like fresh meat to a pack of starved lions, also known as the upperclassmen, who would pepper the room with their Aristotelian intellect, essentially rehearsing their law school application interview with startling logical brilliance. Of course we learn from history. Of course it repeats itself. But the implications of x and variables y and z will later cause the following courses of action, either action A or action B. It was simple. We were post-Cold War, Clinton-era wunderkids. We had it all figured out. Here was an orderly, systematized world that was easily understood and readily grasped.

Fast forward 15 years…
Standard and Poors just downgraded America’s credit rating to AA+. And the historical precedent for this is what exactly? Beyond that, the administration of this variable onto the system known as global finance will cause what future courses of action? A, B… Z?  Why did Standard and Poors downgrade Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac this past Monday, and not in 2009? Why is France with a substantially larger percentage of debt to GDP still rated AAA? Why can’t I defend away $2 trillion mathematical errors? Does it matter?
The bizarro land of real estate invokes the immortal words of gonzo journalist Hunter S. Thompson (which strangely becomes more relevant with each passing year) “when the going gets weird, the weird turn pro”. There is no editorial accident in constructing a SWOT analysis to lead-off this month’s Stat Pack that shows all strengths and all opportunities as the present condition of the real estate market. Without getting too subjective, it is pretty safe to say that everything out there in the real estate market is really good right now: prices are mostly stable, inventory levels are down substantially, foreclosures are down by over 30% from a year ago (which was down off of 2009), interest rates are microscopic at 4.25% as of this writing, prepaid PMI programs give buyers with high credit, real income and the knowledge to buy in good areas incredible opportunities right now and quite a few sellers want/need to make a deal. Everyone of those statements is objectively, measurably accurate.
The problem has to do with everything else that is beyond the consumer’s ability to control. When you buy real estate you participate in world finance, like it or not. All those subprime mortgages were tied to Mexican banana farms which were tied to Thai import/export companies which were tied to Korean manufacturing which were tied to Irish discount airlines. The series of dominoes from one man’s excessive spending in 2005 and subsequent foreclosure in 2007 ended up carrying global implications because bits and pieces of his mortgage and hundreds of other defaulting mortgages were scattered around the globe to investors in all corners. Everybody, everywhere owned just a little bit of everyone else’s little debts. No problem, until a bunch of those (ahem, AAA-rated) debts start to go bad. In the thunderclap that followed this meltdown, the economy of trust was broken. Banks slammed the doors of trust shut in late August 2007 and have barely cracked them back open. Now ten years removed from 9/11 and the beginnings of a war that has seen the sacrifices of a volunteer armed forces, we live in a society that suffers from disaster-fatigue, where meltdowns are increasingly common and increasingly expected. What’s the next order of magnitude to steal away the headlines? Just when you think you have seen it all, something new happens. And the backdrop for this is an ever-more-toxic political climate, where civil discord is a relic of the past.
Why this matters: Sellers more often than not bought in a feel-good era. Buyers today are buying in a feel-worse era. When sellers bought, their motivations were very different than today’s buyers. More likely, the reasons to not buy were not nearly as pronounced as they are today. This makes a seller’s job of marketing their property to a cynical, distrustful audience extremely difficult. This makes buyers more resistant to making decisions that are based on feeling good. People make real estate decisions electively for one of two reasons: pleasure or pain. It is easier now to market with language like: “pain-free”, “move-in ready”, “all-set”; rather than “luxurious”, “masterpiece”, “incredible views”. The first set of phrases use language that dominates the mind of the buyer: pain; inconvenience; problems; doubt; it then overcomes these fears and pains. A seller must speak the day-to-day language of the buyer in order to demonstrate value in today’s market.
This is all talk about the emotional climate of real estate and the difficulty of gauging cause and effect in today’s economy. The day after the S&P downgrade that basically discounted America’s ability to repay it’s debt, what happened? Wall Street went into shock, losing more than 5% and treasuries – the repayment of which was the very thing S&P was calling into question – saw a surge of money, propelling 30 year mortgage rates down. In the midst of all this chaos, the real estate side of the ledger improved yet again.
Year to date, Colorado Springs Real Estate is having a decent year that no one seems to know about. It is all relative and all compared to the last several years which have not been the rosiest of real estate sales years. This year, there will be about as many sales as 2008, more than 2010, slightly fewer than 2009. But what is most intriguing is that the number of listed properties, while still high based on the last ten years of inventory, is lower than at anytime since 2005. For six consecutive months, inventory has been at 6.1 months or less, a stable balance between supply and demand. Because there are fewer homes for sale and slightly higher demand than this time last year, the earlier drops in average sale price will probably balance out as the year finishes because buyers that are buying are less likely to see new listings come on the market and are more likely to try and make a deal with what is out there now, thus stretching slightly upward in price.
The best advice we can give: if you’re participating in a real estate decision for long-term reasons, ignore the toxicity of the present.

Mid-Year Review: July 2011 Market Stats

Click Here for Mid-Year Review Market Report

The Summer Viewing at Pikes Peak Urban Living is on the cat fight between two market metrics: Average Sales Price and Months of Inventory.

Months of Inventory is a handy-dandy metric to forecast, predict or… guess… what the market will do next. The barometer that has traditionally held sway is a 6 month supply of housing equals a neutral market. Get below six months and stay there and the market should see appreciation and increased seller-control. Go above six months, and that much to choose from sways control to buyers and prices drop. The majority of the last four years have been in excess of 6 months with a few brief months in 2009 under 6 months supply. July 1 showed a reading of 5.5 months. After three previous months from 5.9 to 6.1 months of inventory, that should be a predictor of prices going up.

Yet they haven’t done that.

Average price year to date is off 4% from a year ago. A lot of this was the post-tax-credit malaise that wrecked the market last spring. REALTORS went from running their engines at 110% in April to idling them in May, and never really getting them out of neutral the rest of the year. This year has been somewhat spastic, but overall, prices are steady to down then they’re showing appreciation.

Most everyone has an easier time understanding what has happened as opposed to grasping at what might happen, and correspondingly average price gets a lot of press. But as I spoke about last week, the relationship between units for sale and units sold is pointing to possible to likely improvements. The market has crested in inventory and is in the six to seven month cycle of fewer, not greater listings. There will be new listings each month, but not at the rate that they were before, and many good new listings will be recognized more readily as valuable by active buyers because buyers operating in the second half of summer and early fall generally have to make quick decisions. These are general conditions that don’t always hold, but with fewer than 4800 listings for sale, and two more months under 6 month’s supply likely… it will be interesting to see what happens to pricing over the next six months.

To see the active market numbers, Click Here for the Stat Pack.

Does Supply & Demand Rule Everything? If So, Which Way is the Market Heading?

I’m having more fun with math than any man should be allowed this morning.

Here is a quick snapshot in chart form of what the Pikes Peak MLS Market looks like in Single-Family Sales terms at Mid-Year.

Pikes Peak MLS Mid-Year Snapshot

Now, this is a graph of what the relationship between Supply and Demand looks like at Mid-Year, expressed as Months of Inventory (Total Active Listings Divided by Unit Sales per Previous Month).

2010 Tax Credit Expired on June 30, 2010.

 

 

October 2010 Colorado Springs Market Stats

“If live seems jolly rotten, there’s something you’ve forgotten, and that’s to laugh and smile and dance and sing…”

 

"Cheer up you ol' buggah!"

 

That’s right, cue the dying whistlers, and give Eric Idle’s “Always Look on the Bright Side of Life” a spin on the old turntable. September 2010 finished with:

  • Over 9 months of inventory supply
  • A mere 603 units closed
  • Over 5500 listings for sale

This post would be objectively bankrupt to not sit back and state: those numbers, suck.

So why “purse your lips and whistle”? No, the reason is not false optimism, nor is it that the real estate industry benefited from 603 morons that bought property last month. For starters, I’m certain Warren Buffett withhold such a judgment from those 603 buyers; and if he’s not, I sure as heck am not. Surely you remember

 

The Pin-Up of Economic Optimism: Warren Buffett

 

dead-sexy Warren, “Be greedy when others are fearful, be fearful when others are greedy.” When the Oracle of Omaha is making hay on railroads, it might help to think contrarian just like him. A good deal of the reason that so many people are selling at 2003 to 2004 prices these days is because they were greedy when they should have been fearful when they bought. They bought with the intention of selling higher. Money is not made on the sale. Money is made on the buy. You can never be in charge of the market dynamics when you sell. You can be in charge of market dynamics when you buy. With fear dominating the game right now, anyone with skin to put in the game should ask the question “are the masses, right?” I for one don’t think so. The masses bought with poor intentions.

Here is the positive data:

  • Average sales price for the year is up over 4%. This is not because homes are appreciating. That is not the case at all. It is because people are stretching their money on the low interest rates to get more home. Better homes are selling. Yeah, merit!
  • Interest rates are extremely low, with 4.375 a so-so rate. I have buyers locked on a 15-year right now at 3.65%!
  • Sellers have figured out that asking too much is just plain stupid. Never in the last six years have the: avg. sold price; new avg. listing price; all-listing avg. price; been so close together. If anything indicates a market moving towards balance, it is the relationship of these three values. So despite the big slowdown in demand and the corresponding increase in months of inventory, the prevailing forces of balance still have a strong foothold.
  • Pending sales data stabilized. In fact, weirdest single piece of data this year (so far!) is that September produced more pending sales than May or July.
  • September saw 300 sellers quit the market. This is good. There have been too many sellers trying to sell for too much yet again this year. They started to disappear in 2008 and were almost absent from the market in 2009 but came back this year under the false assumption that the market had improved enough to allow speculative pricing. In fact, the opposite has occurred. This trend will likely continue through the fall, setting up the strange likelihood that months of inventory will shrink between now and December.

The rest of the story is here:

 

October 2010 Stat Pack

 

Colorado Springs Real Estate Market Data March 2010

The Stat Pack is sizzling hot HERE.

Silver Bullets are good for killing werewolves. Not much else.

Save your silver bullets for John Landis movies...

Ask anyone in the real estate industry and they have a buyer who is sending them scared-stiff links that “prove” the real estate recovery is not happening like everyone says it is. Some gloomy desk-jockey-number-cruncher is usually quoted with a gloom and doom rubric “5 million more foreclosures” and “21% of American’s underwater” and “it’s now moving to prime mortgages.” The agent response to this phone call or email is usually just as incendiary… they sometimes reply with back issues of the Stat Pack as an attachment. Clashing gospels and dueling clanging gongs creates quite a racket.
The reality is that the economy is a giant gumbo of variables. Within 36 hours this week, all of the following were headlines: Colorado Jobs numbers much worse than expected; National Jobs numbers beat predictions; stock market near 18 month high; mortgage rates expected to rise as Treasuries stops buying servicing; mortgage rates at low for the calendar year; auto sales down 2%; retails sales unexpectedly up; nation’s consumer confidence goes down. Broncos have had a good week for free agents and the Rockies bench is looking pretty deep this year, too. All of these are true. None of these mean a thing on their own.
WHAT MATTERS NOW:
1.) Leverage: The most counter-intuitive aspect of the market, interest rates are staying below 5%. No analyst can say exactly why, everyone merely ventures a best guess. Most everyone is scratching their heads as to why they’re not going up. The Federal Government has been the wholesale market for treasury-backed securities, longhand for saying, they’ve bought the servicing rights on Fannie/Freddie mortgages for the better part of the last year. So if you’ve seen complaints about why the underwriting on mortgages got nutty, that’s a prominent clue as to why: the government put a trillion dollars of skin in the game on that one… Go figure they would prefer tighter appraisals. That treasury-backed securities practice has a budget that is probably out of gas around the first-of-April. After that… it’s back to the same private money that previously was buying servicing left-and-right up until mid-2008 when they saw the crisis about to break. The thinking on the street is that private money will be hesitant (to put it mildly) to buy servicing rights. Never mind that today’s mortgage has higher costs of origination, higher appraisal standards, higher consumer intelligence and 20 pages of additional disclosures attached to it making it one of the safest and best documented forms of paper wealth in America; these banks have been burned before and are expected to be either cautious or complete non-participants. The investment angle for banks is that they 1.) could make them a lot of money in the long-term based on the few players likely to play and 2.) make their shareholders jittery over the next 90 days and drive their stock value down in the short-term. Can you see the morass mortgages are? The bottomline: they’re low now! They may be going up, but they’ve rarely, in their American history, been lower (within 0.15% of the all-time bottom at this writing). Seasonal demand usually creeps them up in May and June anyhow, so a lock now is not a bad thing. Buying power right now (a.k.a. leverage) is almost unprecedented.
2.) Location: Where a home is greatly influences the value. Relocating buyers (#3 on this list) tend to prefer newer construction and so do the raised on Hi-Def & Wi-Fi generation of buyers. But values have held up well in the foothills. Year to date sales in some of the older areas have been abysmal. After a strong end to 2009, downtown has started off very weak. That might change as the more traditional downtown buyer begins to appear with the pedestrian-friendly, warmer months ahead. The months on market numbers vary wildly from neighborhood to neighborhood. Sellers, you can’t take chances if you have a year of inventory. No one’s going to pay near your price if that’s the case. Buyers… do you really want to buy where you’ll be surrounded by for-sale signs for another year?
3.) Relocation: the biggest drag on the Colorado Springs market has been the national market. Somewhere Else, USA used to be the friend of the Colorado Springs seller. The Pentagon-based Air Force Lt. Col. usually had made $100,000 in 3 years and sold their house with multiple offers. They could come west and buy pretty much whatever they wanted. With the onset of the market downturn nationwide in 2007, our market correction (which began in early 2006) deepened significantly. Reliant on the infusion of wealth from other markets, our over $350,000 market has suffered. Well strangely, of the 5 price-brackets to seen an increase in sales the last 90 days over the previous 90-day track (Nov. to Jan.), all of them were above $325,000. Some of that is local, but some of that is also the effect of other markets around the country having bottomed out as well, and their buyers are now able to buy here.
In closing, March 2010 dawns with more promise and hope then March, 2009. Hard not to. It remains a market of opportunity. Whenever there is opportunity, that means there is risk somewhere. Make your decisions wisely.

2009 End of Year Market Report

Updated Market Data

The 2009 Sales Year ended dramatically different than it began.

January was the depths of doom and gloom, lots of listings, lots of fear, skyrocketing job losses, Wall Street hemorrhaging.

Now, we’re back to worrying about Simon Cowel leaving Idol and “shocked” at the admission Mark McGwire used steroids. In other words, the economy is no longer a paramount concern.

But housing is. Last year, 62% of first-time buyers purchased a home because they had strong sentiments about home ownership. The good value rationale was sited as the number one reason among only one in ten respondents to the National Association of REALTOR’s Profile of Home Buyer’s and Sellers.

Locally, this bore itself out with a dramatic shift in the marketplace. The under $250,000 market improved throughout the year, while the $250,000 to $325,000 market made headway… and above $400,000, things actually got worse. Right now, 38% of all listings are over $300,000. Yet only 16% of all sales in 2009 were over $300,000.

Read more at Colorado Springs market leader in real estate information you can use, THE STAT PACK!

Where to Buy 2010 Part VI: Red Lights

The post that makes enemies faster than friends. In the interest of covering my own fanny, this is analysis based off of data that measures multiple metrics and then draws conclusions when comparing one set of data to another set. It is a formula set designed to assist buyers with purchasing decisions where their home-ownership may be less than 3 years. If that’s the case, The Red Light Properties have supply and demand trends that look like they will continue to put negative pressure on value. If you simply “must have this neighborhood”, or “must have this home”, or you plan on this being your last home purchase and you don’t care if it loses value or not… this post will mean nothing to you. This is a cold, calculated presentation of data as to whether or not these areas will appreciate (or depreciate further) in 2010. My forecast is that the average sales price all of these areas will continue to lose value next year.

To read about the Goal of This Where-to-Buy Series of Posts, Click Here.

To find out the recommended areas that have probably swung past the bottom of the pendulum and are already appreciating, read about The Green Lights. To see the Data for the Green Light Neighborhoods, that is found HERE.

For the bigger risk takers (but probably where the timing favors a turn to appreciation in later 2010), The Yellow Light areas are documented HERE. Note: I accidentally omitted Gleneagle in that post, which has stabilized pretty significantly in the last 18 months and will probably be in appreciation-mode by 3rd quarter, 2010. Up-to-Date Market Data is found here at THE STAT PACK link of www.BenjaminDay.com.

RED LIGHTS

The Red Lights for the most part represent neighborhoods where the average selling price is over $400,000. In some cases, even in the boom years of 2004 through early 2006, it was more probable that a home would fail to sell than actually sell in a ultra-high-end neighborhood like Kissing Camels or Broadmoor Resort. But the impact of the Great Recession, consumer pessimism, tightened underwriting and Jumbo Loan Regulations starting on any loan over $417,000, and the investor-fueled 1.5% to 3.0% penalty in interest-rate since September, 2007 has had a huge effect on the higher end. These are the same factors that have driven down the average sales price in Colorado Springs from over $270,000 in July, 2007 to $213,000 today: there is not only less demand for a high-end home, it’s just plain hard to buy one.

A Few Good Buys, but New and Expensive will Sit Forever:

Jackson Creek, Stone Crossing/Middle Creek, Erindale/Pulpit Rock and Sunset Mesa/Saddlerock all have average on-the-market values considerably higher than the year to date average sales price. All four have had less than a 47% probability of sale each of the last two years. All four have an average year-to-date sales price that is less than the six -year average. Of the four, Stone Crossing has withstood price pressure the most, only off a couple hundred dollars from the six year average. But the average sales price is only $20,000 higher than the year-to-date sales price and with 15 year-to-date sales and 18 on the market (15 months of inventory), the supply is overwhelming demand and will force values down.

Jackson Creek 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 89 89 99 82 50 46 76
Avg Price 306786 336210 369368 358065 349981 340884 343549
Expired/Failed 31 46 62 77 93 85 66
Total Units 44 135 161 159 143 131 142
Probability Sale 64% 66% 61% 52% 35% 35% 54%
Listed 34
Avg. List 363882
Sunset Mesa/Saddlerock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 84 85 61 43 35 41 58
Avg Price 291665 308965 330695 329555 305382 304813 311846
Expired/Failed 78 60 68 64 61 47 63
Total Units 44 145 129 107 96 88 102
Probability Sale 64% 59% 47% 40% 36% 47% 57%
Listed 24
Avg. List 463612
Stone Crossing 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 40 44 31 25 24 15 30
Avg Price 393924 471618 526273 516762 467600 474296 475079
Expired/Failed 4 6 17 23 37 21 18
Total Units 44 50 48 48 61 36 48
Probability Sale 91% 88% 65% 52% 39% 42% 62%
Listed 18
Avg. List 501788
Erindale/Pulpit Rock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 37 40 48 36 28 23 35
Avg Price 259744 291983 276232 269205 283110 249856 271688
Expired/Failed 42 29 39 38 37 28 36
Total Units 79 69 87 74 65 51 71
Probability Sale 47% 58% 55% 49% 43% 45% 50%
Listed 14
Avg. List 304339

Interestingly, all four areas have a pretty large price spectrum, from as little as $180,000 in Pulplit Rock to $600,000 along the cliff edges, $225,000 in Jackson creek to $650,000 for a newer Saddletree with huge lot and views. So to some degree, there are some very good buys in these neighborhoods. Homes priced less than the average sales price have a greater probability of sale. Homes priced 15 to 30% above average sale price however will have greater difficulty.

The Monument Funk

Woodmoor, Bent Tree/Higby and King’s Deer are Slow, Pretty Slow and Very Slow. Each of the last 3 years they have averaged less than a 47% chance of sale, and all have a year-to-date sales price that is significantly lower than the average price of all listings presently for sale. There is a 9 month supply of housing in Woodmoor, 16 months in Bent Tree and 20 months in King’s Deer. With so much of the “average” property in these areas valued at more than $500,000, the ramifications of the jumbo limit capped at $417,000 are huge: not many buyers have $80,000 or more to put down on a home. The rare, secondary financing that is available to buyers usually is no more than $50,000. So a home asking $550,000 in one of these areas will be competing with another, average-priced home. A buyer shopping in any of these areas could wield enormous leverage in terms of negotiating a lower price.

Bent Tree/Higby 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 27 22 23 14 11 10 18
Avg Price 623984 618202 752679 714000 718938 548322 662688
Expired/Failed 20 13 16 22 40 21 22
Total Units 47 35 39 36 51 31 40
Probability Sale 57% 63% 59% 39% 22% 32% 45%
Listed 15
Avg. List 870120
King’s Deer 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 28 45 30 22 21 15 27
Avg Price 553852 649716 669242 778349 613447 690833 659240
Expired/Failed 49 21 43 42 72 54 47
Total Units 77 66 73 64 93 69 74
Probability Sale 36% 68% 41% 34% 23% 22% 36%
Listed 27
Avg. List 787683
Woodmoor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 219 216 171 136 121 91 159
Avg Price 365452 413316 421580 428742 388008 393657 401793
Expired/Failed 172 111 114 153 149 142 140
Total Units 391 327 285 289 270 233 299
Probability Sale 56% 66% 60% 47% 45% 39% 53%
Listed 77
Avg. List 454801
Bent Tree/Higby 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 27 22 23 14 11 10 18
Avg Price 623984 618202 752679 714000 718938 548322 662688
Expired/Failed 20 13 16 22 40 21 22
Total Units 47 35 39 36 51 31 40
Probability Sale 57% 63% 59% 39% 22% 32% 45%
Listed 15
Avg. List 870120

AWOL Demand, Decent Supply

Three well known luxury areas have seen buyer demand dry up to the tune of a 1 in 3 probability of sale.

Upper Skyway 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 48 58 36 40 38 17 40
Avg Price 613814 620878 698243 602640 558110 569867 610592
Expired/Failed 25 35 34 58 32 35 37
Total Units 73 93 70 98 70 52 76
Probability Sale 66% 62% 51% 41% 54% 33% 52%
Listed 30
Avg. List 1136400
Cedar Heights 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 8 9 6 4 4 11 7
Avg Price 537611 600550 712333 560875 560875 544850 586182
Expired/Failed 18 9 14 20 19 20 17
Total Units 26 18 20 24 23 31 24
Probability Sale 31% 50% 30% 17% 17% 35% 30%
Listed 8
Avg. List 767112
Unviersity Park 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 29 24 22 15 15 12 20
Avg Price 502279 521746 621344 623465 629780 463813 560405
Expired/Failed 23 23 40 39 33 31 32
Total Units 52 47 62 54 48 43 51
Probability Sale 56% 51% 35% 28% 31% 28% 38%
Listed 22
Avg. List 642754

Cedar Heights is actually rebounding somewhat and has only 8 months of inventory right now. That’s reasonably low for Cedar Heights. The problem however is that the average asking price is a full $200,000 above what has been the average selling price. Recent sales have submarined values to 2004 levels and today’s buyers will likely make similar demands on the present listing inventory. Upper Skyway and Skyway Heights makes a somewhat surprising appearance. Broadmoor Bluffs and the Spires has registered a dramatically higher sales rate in 2008.  Companion neighborhoods Stratton Forest and Stratton Preserve just saw their first sale in two years last month. Perhaps it is the age of the inventory or the difficulty in access, but 2009 has not been a great year near Bear Creek Park. The most heavily impacted area by far, and possibly in the city, is University Park. University Park has a large number of million dollar dwellings and lots valued at over $250,000. However… there has been a 29% chance of sale over the last three years and the average selling price this year is well below the average in 2004. Worse news for present sellers: the average asking price is $180,000 above the average selling price year-to-date. Sellers today will very likely have to make big price concessions to move their property.

The Ultra High-End

The massive economic upheaval and how consumer values have changed (and how they have stayed the same) is readily evident in three neighborhoods known for million dollar properties. The Broadmoor and Kissing Camels are hard places to sell a home, but are showing signs in 2009 that traditional neighborhoods commonly associated with luxury (the Broadmoor) and locations with a true, one-of-a-kind location (Kissing Camels) have value, even in a bad economy. The Broadmoor Resort meanwhile shows the difficulty of selling in a true custom-home neighborhood: one man’s custom, is another man’s consolation. There is a single MLS sale recorded in the Resort this year (translates to 14.8 years worth of inventory). There are additional new homeowners this year in the Resort, but the idea of buying someone else’s home has less value when builders are willing to build “exactly” what they want… and charge less than they did four years ago.

Broadmoor Resort 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 6 17 17 9 6 1 9
Avg Price 1068448 1299786 1392895 1637777 1306333 790000 1249207
Expired/Failed 31 28 16 15 13 18 20
Total Units 37 45 33 24 19 19 30
Probability Sale 16% 38% 52% 38% 32% 5% 32%
Listed 16
Avg. List 1921875
Kissing Camels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 12 16 24 16 6 9 14
Avg Price 736666 790402 971606 1055814 935000 826700 886031
Expired/Failed 15 19 34 21 36 32 26
Total Units 27 35 58 37 42 41 40
Probability Sale 44% 46% 41% 43% 14% 22% 35%
Listed 28
Avg. List 930487
Broadmoor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 36 40 21 19 27 24 28
Avg Price 750302 807591 1086173 1085915 825496 673337 871469
Expired/Failed 44 37 35 45 25 29 36
Total Units 80 77 56 64 52 53 64
Probability Sale 45% 52% 38% 30% 52% 45% 44%
Listed 28
Avg. List 1420785