Tag Archives: Garden of the Gods

Mid-Year Review: July 2011 Market Stats

Click Here for Mid-Year Review Market Report

The Summer Viewing at Pikes Peak Urban Living is on the cat fight between two market metrics: Average Sales Price and Months of Inventory.

Months of Inventory is a handy-dandy metric to forecast, predict or… guess… what the market will do next. The barometer that has traditionally held sway is a 6 month supply of housing equals a neutral market. Get below six months and stay there and the market should see appreciation and increased seller-control. Go above six months, and that much to choose from sways control to buyers and prices drop. The majority of the last four years have been in excess of 6 months with a few brief months in 2009 under 6 months supply. July 1 showed a reading of 5.5 months. After three previous months from 5.9 to 6.1 months of inventory, that should be a predictor of prices going up.

Yet they haven’t done that.

Average price year to date is off 4% from a year ago. A lot of this was the post-tax-credit malaise that wrecked the market last spring. REALTORS went from running their engines at 110% in April to idling them in May, and never really getting them out of neutral the rest of the year. This year has been somewhat spastic, but overall, prices are steady to down then they’re showing appreciation.

Most everyone has an easier time understanding what has happened as opposed to grasping at what might happen, and correspondingly average price gets a lot of press. But as I spoke about last week, the relationship between units for sale and units sold is pointing to possible to likely improvements. The market has crested in inventory and is in the six to seven month cycle of fewer, not greater listings. There will be new listings each month, but not at the rate that they were before, and many good new listings will be recognized more readily as valuable by active buyers because buyers operating in the second half of summer and early fall generally have to make quick decisions. These are general conditions that don’t always hold, but with fewer than 4800 listings for sale, and two more months under 6 month’s supply likely… it will be interesting to see what happens to pricing over the next six months.

To see the active market numbers, Click Here for the Stat Pack.

Colorado Springs Real Estate Market Data March 2010

The Stat Pack is sizzling hot HERE.

Silver Bullets are good for killing werewolves. Not much else.

Save your silver bullets for John Landis movies...

Ask anyone in the real estate industry and they have a buyer who is sending them scared-stiff links that “prove” the real estate recovery is not happening like everyone says it is. Some gloomy desk-jockey-number-cruncher is usually quoted with a gloom and doom rubric “5 million more foreclosures” and “21% of American’s underwater” and “it’s now moving to prime mortgages.” The agent response to this phone call or email is usually just as incendiary… they sometimes reply with back issues of the Stat Pack as an attachment. Clashing gospels and dueling clanging gongs creates quite a racket.
The reality is that the economy is a giant gumbo of variables. Within 36 hours this week, all of the following were headlines: Colorado Jobs numbers much worse than expected; National Jobs numbers beat predictions; stock market near 18 month high; mortgage rates expected to rise as Treasuries stops buying servicing; mortgage rates at low for the calendar year; auto sales down 2%; retails sales unexpectedly up; nation’s consumer confidence goes down. Broncos have had a good week for free agents and the Rockies bench is looking pretty deep this year, too. All of these are true. None of these mean a thing on their own.
WHAT MATTERS NOW:
1.) Leverage: The most counter-intuitive aspect of the market, interest rates are staying below 5%. No analyst can say exactly why, everyone merely ventures a best guess. Most everyone is scratching their heads as to why they’re not going up. The Federal Government has been the wholesale market for treasury-backed securities, longhand for saying, they’ve bought the servicing rights on Fannie/Freddie mortgages for the better part of the last year. So if you’ve seen complaints about why the underwriting on mortgages got nutty, that’s a prominent clue as to why: the government put a trillion dollars of skin in the game on that one… Go figure they would prefer tighter appraisals. That treasury-backed securities practice has a budget that is probably out of gas around the first-of-April. After that… it’s back to the same private money that previously was buying servicing left-and-right up until mid-2008 when they saw the crisis about to break. The thinking on the street is that private money will be hesitant (to put it mildly) to buy servicing rights. Never mind that today’s mortgage has higher costs of origination, higher appraisal standards, higher consumer intelligence and 20 pages of additional disclosures attached to it making it one of the safest and best documented forms of paper wealth in America; these banks have been burned before and are expected to be either cautious or complete non-participants. The investment angle for banks is that they 1.) could make them a lot of money in the long-term based on the few players likely to play and 2.) make their shareholders jittery over the next 90 days and drive their stock value down in the short-term. Can you see the morass mortgages are? The bottomline: they’re low now! They may be going up, but they’ve rarely, in their American history, been lower (within 0.15% of the all-time bottom at this writing). Seasonal demand usually creeps them up in May and June anyhow, so a lock now is not a bad thing. Buying power right now (a.k.a. leverage) is almost unprecedented.
2.) Location: Where a home is greatly influences the value. Relocating buyers (#3 on this list) tend to prefer newer construction and so do the raised on Hi-Def & Wi-Fi generation of buyers. But values have held up well in the foothills. Year to date sales in some of the older areas have been abysmal. After a strong end to 2009, downtown has started off very weak. That might change as the more traditional downtown buyer begins to appear with the pedestrian-friendly, warmer months ahead. The months on market numbers vary wildly from neighborhood to neighborhood. Sellers, you can’t take chances if you have a year of inventory. No one’s going to pay near your price if that’s the case. Buyers… do you really want to buy where you’ll be surrounded by for-sale signs for another year?
3.) Relocation: the biggest drag on the Colorado Springs market has been the national market. Somewhere Else, USA used to be the friend of the Colorado Springs seller. The Pentagon-based Air Force Lt. Col. usually had made $100,000 in 3 years and sold their house with multiple offers. They could come west and buy pretty much whatever they wanted. With the onset of the market downturn nationwide in 2007, our market correction (which began in early 2006) deepened significantly. Reliant on the infusion of wealth from other markets, our over $350,000 market has suffered. Well strangely, of the 5 price-brackets to seen an increase in sales the last 90 days over the previous 90-day track (Nov. to Jan.), all of them were above $325,000. Some of that is local, but some of that is also the effect of other markets around the country having bottomed out as well, and their buyers are now able to buy here.
In closing, March 2010 dawns with more promise and hope then March, 2009. Hard not to. It remains a market of opportunity. Whenever there is opportunity, that means there is risk somewhere. Make your decisions wisely.

2009 End of Year Market Report

Updated Market Data

The 2009 Sales Year ended dramatically different than it began.

January was the depths of doom and gloom, lots of listings, lots of fear, skyrocketing job losses, Wall Street hemorrhaging.

Now, we’re back to worrying about Simon Cowel leaving Idol and “shocked” at the admission Mark McGwire used steroids. In other words, the economy is no longer a paramount concern.

But housing is. Last year, 62% of first-time buyers purchased a home because they had strong sentiments about home ownership. The good value rationale was sited as the number one reason among only one in ten respondents to the National Association of REALTOR’s Profile of Home Buyer’s and Sellers.

Locally, this bore itself out with a dramatic shift in the marketplace. The under $250,000 market improved throughout the year, while the $250,000 to $325,000 market made headway… and above $400,000, things actually got worse. Right now, 38% of all listings are over $300,000. Yet only 16% of all sales in 2009 were over $300,000.

Read more at Colorado Springs market leader in real estate information you can use, THE STAT PACK!

Where to Buy 2010, Part V: 59% increase in unit sales

All the data is Posted Here.

The hurry-up to the analysis is here…

Did the Gazette just describe the real estate market as “Soaring?” What happened to “plummet, freefall & plunge?
Remember November, 2008? There was not a cable-news network minute that went by without some new bank showing signs of weakness, some new stock plummeting, some new unimaginable sum in the billions of dollars being dedicated to a bailout of some enormous, household name entity that was ruled too big to fail. It was being called the biggest Wall Street Panic since the Great Depression and calling it the Great Recession seemed to be a euphemism for investors that were losing money to the tune of 30 to 60% in a single year. Terminology like plummet, freefall and plunge was routine. It was accurately applied to housing as average selling prices lost over 15% in 4 months and demand shriveled up.
December 2nd, 2009: Sales Increase 59%. Last November was the worst November in 15+ years in the Pikes Peak MLS. Numbers are numbers. A cynic looks at that increase and says, “that’s like the Broncos posting 10 points last week in a loss and winning with 16 the next. So what? The offense is still broken.”
In some regards, the system is still broken. There is less than 4 months supply of housing under $250,000 (that is NOT broken, that’s actually a hot-market). But there is over 10 months supply above $250,000 (that’s pretty slow, even for late Fall). If the numbers are used just to describe where things are today as compared to the recent past, the story is told halfway. It is better now than it was then; but how could it really be worse?
Where the numbers start to really illustrate and tell the whole story is when they are mapped and analyzed for trends. Months of Inventory has not been below 6 months on December 1st since the heyday of the boom market in 2005. That’s where it is now. Average price citywide is about $20,000 less than that time and interest rates are a full percent lower. And there are tax incentives to stimulate more demand, most importantly from first-time buyers who by definition, do not have a home to sell. The December Jobs Report showed a significant decrease in the rate of unemployment filings and durable goods orders are coming in ahead of forecast. Baby it’s cold outside… but the sun is shining. Consumers are cautious and value-oriented… but they are no longer terrified.
What Lies Ahead?
Be prepared for lots of forecasts and lots of media attention in the slow December News Cycle to be dedicated to the green shoots of a housing recovery. Some of this will be helpful, some of this will be accurate and a lot of it will paint with a brush broad enough to cover all 50 states in a minute and five seconds. The Real Estate Bust has definitely shown that real estate can move downward as a nation just as it can move upward as a nation. But the extremes of the market have been in coastal areas and places that posted unsustainable rates of growth. Middle America, places where population has continued to grow, places with lower than national rates of unemployment and neighborhoods that were less impacted by the explosive growth of new construction from 2003 to 2006 are the places where the recovery has already sprung. All of the above market conditions apply to Colorado Springs greater metro area.
“Value” will be the operative phrase to describe any recovery. The 2009 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers showed that the overwhelming reason First-Time Buyers chose to buy a home in 2009 was NOT the First-Time Buyer Tax Credit. Over 60% had the desire to own a home. The 2nd reason? Affordability (10%). Third? Change in Personal Situation (8%). Only 6% sited the tax credit. And yet look at those November sales when the tax-credit was initially supposed to end. It is a nice carrot that helps propel buyers past the tipping point of personal desire, decent selection, low interest rates and real estate at a four to seven year low in price. The tax credit is eventually unsustainable and it certainly does borrow buyers from the future and activate them in the present. But what better time to do that than when housing affordability is at one of it’s highest levels in record? Who else will consume the inventory of properties of willing (or unwilling) sellers who either need to move or hope to change their real estate investment? It greases the wheels of recovery so that the majority of participants can once again begin to buy and sell real estate.
Make no mistake, the old days will not return and the market has changed in nature and what consumers consider “valuable”. Over 90% of 2009 buyers started their search online; 37% found their home via the internet, and only 33% by their REALTOR. That sends an enormous message to sellers: BUYERS WON’T BE FOOLED. Buyers want thorough property descriptions of high-quality properties and will not waste time looking at over-priced and under-conditioned properties. Affordability has increased. Probability of sale will begin to increase. But that will happen only for properties (and sellers) deemed a better value than their peers.

Where to Buy 2010, Part III: Green Light Data Edition

Wolf Ranch 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 28 111 84 80 57 52 69
Avg Price 305970 348121 394526 396895 367503 368180 363533
Expired/Failed 16 10 20 55 65 41 35
Total Units 44 121 104 135 122 93 103
Probability Sale 64% 92% 81% 59% 47% 56% 64%
Listed 30
Avg. List 371416
Skyway 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 40 43 34 25 8 26 29
Avg Price 249746 273427 333679 305375 333987 243388 289934
Expired/Failed 28 21 15 21 18 22 21
Total Units 44 64 49 46 26 48 46
Probability Sale 64% 67% 69% 54% 31% 54% 57%
Listed 11
Avg. List 331054
Pinecliff 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 23 24 13 27 15 13 19
Avg Price 345293 358016 367884 406895 384080 325053 364537
Expired/Failed 12 7 6 16 15 13 12
Total Units 35 31 19 43 30 26 31
Probability Sale 66% 77% 68% 63% 50% 50% 63%
Listed 7
Avg. List 389314
Cordera 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 21 13 18 30 21
Avg Price 402201 427005 417182 388590 408745
Expired/Failed 0 6 15 16 9
Total Units 21 19 33 46 30
Probability Sale 100% 68% 55% 65% 69%
Listed 19
Avg. List 438845
Downtown 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 137 131 156 92 108 86 118
Avg Price 186939 198821 198488 210545 196956 187402 196525
Expired/Failed 109 76 80 85 78 41 78
Total Units 44 207 236 177 186 127 197
Probability Sale 64% 63% 66% 52% 58% 68% 60%
Listed 54
Avg. List 237723
Fairfax 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 143 150 140 120 99 67 120
Avg Price 215679 251518 252542 250635 237804 247789 242661
Expired/Failed 50 42 65 72 65 63 60
Total Units 193 192 205 192 164 130 179
Probability Sale 74% 78% 68% 63% 60% 52% 67%
Listed 29
Avg. List 247096
Gatehouse 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 111 128 91 79 61 58 88
Avg Price 249826 269487 281448 287350 276485 271733 272722
Expired/Failed 59 35 30 42 53 44 44
Total Units 170 163 121 121 114 102 132
Probability Sale 65% 79% 75% 65% 54% 57% 67%
Listed 11
Avg. List 274372
Vista Grande 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 101 116 113 94 78 59 94
Avg Price 168762 187375 186714 181848 168075 162927 175950
Expired/Failed 53 30 54 59 65 41 50
Total Units 44 146 167 153 143 100 144
Probability Sale 64% 79% 68% 61% 55% 59% 65%
Listed 16
Avg. List 237325
Summerfield 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 51 53 44 55 24 18 41
Avg Price 306615 331506 392408 365449 341415 317113 342418
Expired/Failed 13 13 15 28 19 19 18
Total Units 64 66 59 83 43 37 59
Probability Sale 80% 80% 75% 66% 56% 49% 70%
Listed 3
Avg. List 354996
Wedgewood 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 29 38 48 21 17 7 27
Avg Price 247500 277220 292065 264229 252552 281877 269241
Expired/Failed 19 10 11 8 10 7 11
Total Units 44 48 59 29 27 14 37
Probability Sale 64% 79% 81% 72% 63% 50% 72%
Listed 3
Avg. List 233250
Sable Chase, Misty Meadows, BRI 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 95 119 90 87 55 56 84
Avg Price 184598 200240 206681 210392 197909 192956 198796
Expired/Failed 41 32 38 43 35 30 37
Total Units 136 151 128 130 90 86 120
Probability Sale 70% 79% 70% 67% 61% 65% 70%
Listed 12
Avg. List 211250
Wagon Trails 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 194 197 133 109 97 82 135
Avg Price 235039 244862 252418 251508 239808 233896 242922
Expired/Failed 133 67 91 91 116 47 91
Total Units 327 264 224 200 213 129 226
Probability Sale 64% 75% 59% 55% 46% 64% 60%
Listed 30
Avg. List 296418
Pinon Valley 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 53 52 54 45 35 37 46
Avg Price 229440 229645 240097 237371 250062 227110 235621
Expired/Failed 25 15 14 23 14 8 17
Total Units 78 67 68 68 49 45 63
Probability Sale 68% 78% 79% 66% 71% 82% 74%
Listed 5
Avg. List 237840
Stetson HIlls 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 203 313 355 297 297 268 289
Avg Price 194051 209000 227478 240000 235572 222201 221384
Expired/Failed 124 125 172 272 232 174 183
Total Units 327 438 527 569 529 442 472
Probability Sale 62% 71% 67% 52% 56% 61% 61%
Listed 75
Avg. List 259399
Springs Ranch 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 234 299 244 155 118 123 196
Avg Price 222269 235000 246000 237478 218691 217583 229504
Expired/Failed 116 110 120 163 133 71 119
Total Units 350 409 364 318 251 194 314
Probability Sale 67% 73% 67% 49% 47% 63% 64%
Listed 54
Avg. List 245237
Norwood 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 141 118 104 81 62 54 93
Avg Price 195322 201336 213976 215038 208335 201727 205956
Expired/Failed 94 52 57 44 50 30 55
Total Units 44 170 161 125 112 84 148
Probability Sale 64% 69% 65% 65% 55% 64% 63%
Listed 13
Avg. List 220623
Rockrimmon 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 152 133 110 103 69 54 104
Avg Price 308490 320571 352425 366151 344536 311085 333876
Expired/Failed 101 46 54 84 77 60 70
Total Units 253 179 164 187 146 114 174
Probability Sale 60% 74% 67% 55% 47% 47% 60%
Listed 26
Avg. List 388530
Contrails 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 109 99 89 67 46 41 75
Avg Price 200913 216404 222565 230572 217874 215608 217323
Expired/Failed 48 16 23 46 25 21 30
Total Units 44 115 112 113 71 62 105
Probability Sale 64% 86% 79% 59% 65% 66% 72%
Listed 11
Avg. List 220427
Mesa Heights/PV 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 44 58 44 24 33 22 38
Avg Price 198826 214456 226259 252070 201974 224381 219661
Expired/Failed 15 25 23 14 18 11 18
Total Units 44 83 67 38 51 33 55
Probability Sale 64% 70% 66% 63% 65% 67% 68%
Listed 15
Avg. List 247040
Mesa Heights/PV 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 44 58 44 24 33 22 38
Avg Price 198826 214456 226259 252070 201974 224381 219661
Expired/Failed 15 25 23 14 18 11 18
Total Units 44 83 67 38 51 33 55
Probability Sale 64% 70% 66% 63% 65% 67% 68%
Listed 15
Avg. List 247040

Updated, Remodelled, Charming… and $8000 Eligible. 307 N. 22nd Street

Vintage elegance meets peace of mind at 307 N. 22nd Street in Old Colorado City.

For the buyer who appreciates no problems, peace of mind and recent improvements, consider…
New roof, new stainless appliances, new granite counters, just-refinished hardwood floors, new professionally-finished basement with bedroom and bathroom (even code compliant window wells), new water heater, new fence, new sewer line; modern foundation (1989), and updated electrical, and plumbing. That’s a healthy list anywhere in town, but especially in Old Colorado City, and almost unheard of at $209,000.

307 N 22nd Exterior

307 N 22nd Exterior

There is a spacious charm to the home as well. This 1944 stucco rancher features 1673 square feet with 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, a main level laundry/mudroom, and an attached one-car garage. The main level boasts a remodeled kitchen with granite counters and stainless appliances (yes, there is even a dishwasher!), a formal dining room with classic built-ins, a cozy living room with reading nook, and two bedrooms (one with period built-in closet). Newly-refinished hardwood floors (September, 2009), arched doorways, and antique light fixtures complete the charm. With fantastic natural light streaming in from the prominent southern exposure, there are well defined spaces but also ample room to stretch out.

Downstairs, a 2009 remodel has added a whole new dimension to livability by adding a professionally-finished master suite and 3/4 bath. This area could easily be utilized as a family room or office. The basement has many unique characteristics. First, it is not a stone foundation, but a raised-poured concrete foundation, part of the Old Colorado City restoration project in 1989. Done to modern specifications, it has allowed for ample headroom, as opposed to the usual duck and stoop basement so commonly found in either downtown or Old Colorado City. With a generous storage room hosting the updated mechanicals, it offers everything a homeowner could want in a basement… bedroom or gathering space, 3/4 bath, storage, and the feeling of livable space.

Worried about storage? Ample closets, classic built-ins, a sizable 3-entry laundry room/mudroom (complete with washer and dryer), a generous storage room, and an attached one-car garage provide more than enough space. There is even a fenced dog area for Fido.

Top it all off with the location. Nestled in quaint OCC, you can walk to the cafes and farmers market, or bike to nearby Garden of the Gods

and Red Rock Canyon. Or, just stay home and enjoy the Pikes Peak views from the large fenced back yard or private bistro-style patio.

With all the major improvements, this vintage home provides charm AND total peace of mind. Add that to the fundamental value of location-location-location and this is the best value in Old Colorado City. For First-Time Buyers, the list price on this home is well under the $8000 tax credit. With rates presently dropping to just over 5.00% for FHA loans…. your buying power could not be better!

307 N. 22nd Street, Colorado Springs, CO 80904

Old Colorado City sits minutes between downtown Colorado Springs and
the wide-open spaces of the west side, Pikes Peak and the Mountains
beyond. Lifestyle is characterized by an open embrace of the outdoors,
community, simplicity, and fun.   Wouldn’t it be great to have a
historic remodeled home within walking distance of the Farmer’s Market,
the neighborhood where you can actually walk to a restaurant for
dinner, the location that is a 1.5 mile cruise down neighborhood
streets to world-famous Garden of the Gods?   Look no further.

307 N. 22nd St., C/S/C
307 N.
22nd Street
is a 1944 stucco-sided rancher with abundant upgrades. The
1673 square feet enjoy 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, main level laundry and an
attached one-car garage.   Entering the main level, you will find the
living room and formal dining room. With abundant space for guests,
this home makes for great entertaining. With a remodeled kitchen,
highlighted by slab granite counters, gas-fueled GE Stainless stove and
stainless fridge and dishwasher, you actually will have the power and
space to entertain. A few steps to the south through the Main Level
Mudroom and Laundry is access to a great grilling and patio area, with
a privacy fence surrounding a great yard for play, dominated by
year-round a westerly view of Pikes Peak.   Living quarters are on both
levels with two bedrooms on the main, each with hardwood floors. One
has period built-in furnishings in the closet and the other offers
ample closet space. The full bath is easily accessible from either
room. In the basement, a 2009 remodel has added a whole new dimension
to livability with a professionally finished and permitted basement
adding a master suite with 3/4 bath. This room could also be utilized
as a family room. A generous storage room is off to the side where the
updated mechanicals reside and the foundation is visible for
inspection.   With major improvements including a replaced foundation
(1989), new water heater (2007) new roof (2007), kitchen (2007) and
basement (2009) this is a home a buyer can view and purchase with total
peace of mind, and enjoy the fundamental value of
location-location-location!