Tag Archives: Larry Kendall

Showing is better than telling: Newdea and Philanthropy

If you are frequently on Facebook, the last two weeks have undoubtedly shown many repost from a site called www.Factcheck.org. I wanted to see what kind of traffic this “non-partisan” site was getting compared to others.

The answer apparently, is that now that the election is drawing near and the stakes are being raised daily, it’s getting a lot more traffic. Those giant spikes in activity of course are corresponding with first, the Republican National Convention in Tampa, and second with the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte. The bully pulpit can spin compelling narrative based on nothing more than soaring rhetoric, spew lies, or tell the truth. People seeking to making an informed decision might enjoy “the who & why”; but they truly value “the what & how”.

Data is critical in formulating informed decisions.

We (Pikes Peak Urban Living) take everything Larry Kendall has to say to heart; when we first started allowing him to have an impact on our business in 2007, a major point that kept resurfacing was one made Mr. Kendall’s friend, from the founder of Kroll Factual Data (you might see that organization on a closing statement as producing a credit report or tax certificate): “after digitization only the REALTORS will survive; but only the ones that have access to and know what to do with the data.”

We give consumers access to data monthly so they can daily make beneficial financial decisions

The internet continues to change everything. Then and now, Kroll Factual Data didn’t see real estate practitioners going extinct; but they did see (correctly) that the future of the business would provide a far greater benefit to those that had access to concrete data and were capable of intelligibly sharing that data with their client base (pricing skills; lifestyle thresholds; money leverage; supply and demand ratios; does this sound like The Stat Pack, yet?).

We have numerous friends and clients that work in the non-profit sector. The hamstrung economy has naturally crimped the flow of donations. As recipients of a lot of their marketing, much energy is being spent on re-tooling the message, refining the story and making a push on “the why”. Something that has struck us is that we are willing to give and already have an answer for “the why”; yet significant effort is spent on telling us again and again the reasons for our already confirmed “why”. Like many other ready-to-give consumers , we often lack an answer for “how effective will my donation be? There are multiple organizations that do what you do, I want to know who is making the deepest impact because that’s the work I want to fund.” People that give presently lack measurable answers to “how will my donation be used, and how much good will it do?” Enter data. Newdea’s software solutions are providing the answers.

Individuals donating a single dollar to a local fundraiser or a foundation making a multi-million dollar commitment need to know the specific value of their financial contribution. Newdea helps individuals, private organizations and governments make sure that each dollar they spend on philanthropy produces the highest level of impact.

From Kroll Factual Data’s lending products website. It is no leap to say that large philanthropic donors desire similar outcomes when they give, where they are certain of the financial effectiveness of their donation.

We are putting this out there because we have seen success “after digitization”. Our sales grew by 10% in 2009, 8% in 2010, 12% in 2011, and this year we have already passed last year’s performance in closed sales. A major reason is our use of measurable data. Pikes Peak Urban Living has made a commitment to empowering consumers sharing data in a manner that consumers can interpret, so that can they make unbiased beneficial decisions.

Sharing data works.  Consumers come to us already motivated to buy, sell, or just plain move. They get to their “why” without us. But they come to us because we are in flow with their decision-making, and when they ask someone they trust who to use, their friends and family point them our way, not because we are nice, but because we helped them make a complicated decision easier. We used data, and once satiated with the facts, the left-brain quieted down so the right-brain could go to work.

Pikes Peak Urban Living has a community building component. Look through our Facebook accounts and lots of non-profits, government workers and NGO’s are in there. We believe in organizations like Newdea, because they are in-flow with the consumer’s needs. Consumers want to feel good with their donation, but with cash scarce, any donation must make an impact. Donations must go where they are used most effectively. Having come across this organization and understanding what they’re about, we have no problem trumpeting their cause. Newdea is not a threat to anyone’s “why”; Newdea is making the “why” all the more effective.

Skin in the Game: What The Big Dogs are Predicting for Colorado Springs Real Estate

I just self-audited and have 12 more hours of continuing education to take before August 4th. Hello VanEd. Most of it will be legalistic and boring, and not as relevant as the 4 hours I got from The Real Estate Yoda last Thursday, Mr. Larry Kendall. It’s always a good few hours with Larry, and he actually had a few new tricks in the “showing is better than telling” gear bag.

Let’s pause: 2006. I’m managing agents and hating my life. I have just started the Stat Pack in April and can tell the market is on the edge of a cliff. We had gone from 3800 summertime listings to 6000, and unit sales were dipping. I’m meeting with the owner of a company when another agent comes in with his pitch of “it’s a great time to buy.” This was the same guy who beat me up about frequently doing deals as a Transaction-Broker because my clients had a pretty good idea of what they wanted to do in that rapidly appreciating market… here was Senor Client Advocate blazing the trail of foreclosure for his clients. What has happened since market peak in early 2006 is basically this:

  • We have been in a perpetual heavy-inventory market (3900 summertime listings compared to 6052 last year… over 7000 in 2007).
  • Annual sales units have effectively been cut in half (13,000 single family sales and another 4000 non-MLS new builts in 2005… compared to under 8200 in 2010).
  • Average sales price has dropped 12%, or $30,000 on an annual basis
  • Unemployment has doubled from around 5% to around 10% locally

One of my images from the July 2008 series on the soon-to-come pricing wars. Correctly predicted.

It’s been a real barrel of fun.

Larry’s tribe of Ninja’s don’t plaster their cars with “it’s a great time to buy!” stickers that fade, crack and wear out and are replaced with “Need to Short-Sell? Call Me!” We work with people that are motivated by pleasure or pain and lay out strategies that are customized for their needs and sustain their futures. We are present to the now. So when Larry went to the “this is the best real estate market I’ve seen to buy into in my 38 years” I about short-circuited. Was Yoda really saying rush in and storm the castle?

As usual, Yoda was speaking more along the lines of “the market is best in 38 years it is… your choice is what?” He then proceeded to show, and did so by citing, The Big Boys.

I will post follow ups to this, but here is the executive summary:

Fortune, April 2011: The Return of Real Estate

Fortune Magazine‘s April 2011 Issue announced it as “the time” to return to real estate. Interesting. I’m so used to media doomsaying about my industry, to see the content line as “Forget stocks. Don’t bet on gold. After four years of plunging home prices, the most attractive asset class in America is housing” is almost like a time warp. I halfway expect to see the next article on CNN about Kerry and Edwards.

Federal Housing and Finance Authority’s analysis of the Colorado Springs’ Real Estate Market shows it is poised for recovery with lower inventory and stable demand (check and check so far in 2011 with no reason to believe otherwise).

Federal Housing and Finance Authority Annual Appreciation COS 1981 to now

Private Mortgage Insurance, cats who truly have skin-in-the-game, have the downside risk of future depreciation in the Colorado Springs market at only 16.8%, one of the lowest in the country. The affordability index is just over 150%. Case in point: clients who closed this month and took advantage of PMI’s one-time fee-option paid 1.34% at closing to eliminate their mortgage insurance entirely with only 5% down. They had good credit and bought in a strong area, and PMI said “no problem”. Colorado Springs has been removed from PMI’s declining market’s index for over a year.

Then there is Case-Schiller.

Case Schiller Return to Max Value Predictions, Dec 2010

I have not once said that I thought Case-Schiller was being overly optimistic, but the Top Ten percentile of areas where they predict a return to maximum value by 2013 includes three counties in Colorado: Boulder, Larimer and El Paso. That would be us. I don’t agree with them, we have to stop depreciating in order to spin around, and I think a two-year surge that out-paces four-years of declines is unlikely. But by 2014 or 2015… I think that’s probably right.

So is it a great time to buy? I need to flush this out in more teachable posts. The answer is yes, it is a great time… as long as you’re heavily informed, risk-tolerant, can shut out the nay-saying voices, have good credit, a stable job, and you’re not going anywhere for at least three and more like five or six years. That alone ought to cut the 2005 buyer-binge by half if not more.