Tag Archives: Skyway

Where to Buy 2010 Part VI: Red Lights

The post that makes enemies faster than friends. In the interest of covering my own fanny, this is analysis based off of data that measures multiple metrics and then draws conclusions when comparing one set of data to another set. It is a formula set designed to assist buyers with purchasing decisions where their home-ownership may be less than 3 years. If that’s the case, The Red Light Properties have supply and demand trends that look like they will continue to put negative pressure on value. If you simply “must have this neighborhood”, or “must have this home”, or you plan on this being your last home purchase and you don’t care if it loses value or not… this post will mean nothing to you. This is a cold, calculated presentation of data as to whether or not these areas will appreciate (or depreciate further) in 2010. My forecast is that the average sales price all of these areas will continue to lose value next year.

To read about the Goal of This Where-to-Buy Series of Posts, Click Here.

To find out the recommended areas that have probably swung past the bottom of the pendulum and are already appreciating, read about The Green Lights. To see the Data for the Green Light Neighborhoods, that is found HERE.

For the bigger risk takers (but probably where the timing favors a turn to appreciation in later 2010), The Yellow Light areas are documented HERE. Note: I accidentally omitted Gleneagle in that post, which has stabilized pretty significantly in the last 18 months and will probably be in appreciation-mode by 3rd quarter, 2010. Up-to-Date Market Data is found here at THE STAT PACK link of www.BenjaminDay.com.

RED LIGHTS

The Red Lights for the most part represent neighborhoods where the average selling price is over $400,000. In some cases, even in the boom years of 2004 through early 2006, it was more probable that a home would fail to sell than actually sell in a ultra-high-end neighborhood like Kissing Camels or Broadmoor Resort. But the impact of the Great Recession, consumer pessimism, tightened underwriting and Jumbo Loan Regulations starting on any loan over $417,000, and the investor-fueled 1.5% to 3.0% penalty in interest-rate since September, 2007 has had a huge effect on the higher end. These are the same factors that have driven down the average sales price in Colorado Springs from over $270,000 in July, 2007 to $213,000 today: there is not only less demand for a high-end home, it’s just plain hard to buy one.

A Few Good Buys, but New and Expensive will Sit Forever:

Jackson Creek, Stone Crossing/Middle Creek, Erindale/Pulpit Rock and Sunset Mesa/Saddlerock all have average on-the-market values considerably higher than the year to date average sales price. All four have had less than a 47% probability of sale each of the last two years. All four have an average year-to-date sales price that is less than the six -year average. Of the four, Stone Crossing has withstood price pressure the most, only off a couple hundred dollars from the six year average. But the average sales price is only $20,000 higher than the year-to-date sales price and with 15 year-to-date sales and 18 on the market (15 months of inventory), the supply is overwhelming demand and will force values down.

Jackson Creek 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 89 89 99 82 50 46 76
Avg Price 306786 336210 369368 358065 349981 340884 343549
Expired/Failed 31 46 62 77 93 85 66
Total Units 44 135 161 159 143 131 142
Probability Sale 64% 66% 61% 52% 35% 35% 54%
Listed 34
Avg. List 363882
Sunset Mesa/Saddlerock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 84 85 61 43 35 41 58
Avg Price 291665 308965 330695 329555 305382 304813 311846
Expired/Failed 78 60 68 64 61 47 63
Total Units 44 145 129 107 96 88 102
Probability Sale 64% 59% 47% 40% 36% 47% 57%
Listed 24
Avg. List 463612
Stone Crossing 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 40 44 31 25 24 15 30
Avg Price 393924 471618 526273 516762 467600 474296 475079
Expired/Failed 4 6 17 23 37 21 18
Total Units 44 50 48 48 61 36 48
Probability Sale 91% 88% 65% 52% 39% 42% 62%
Listed 18
Avg. List 501788
Erindale/Pulpit Rock 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 37 40 48 36 28 23 35
Avg Price 259744 291983 276232 269205 283110 249856 271688
Expired/Failed 42 29 39 38 37 28 36
Total Units 79 69 87 74 65 51 71
Probability Sale 47% 58% 55% 49% 43% 45% 50%
Listed 14
Avg. List 304339

Interestingly, all four areas have a pretty large price spectrum, from as little as $180,000 in Pulplit Rock to $600,000 along the cliff edges, $225,000 in Jackson creek to $650,000 for a newer Saddletree with huge lot and views. So to some degree, there are some very good buys in these neighborhoods. Homes priced less than the average sales price have a greater probability of sale. Homes priced 15 to 30% above average sale price however will have greater difficulty.

The Monument Funk

Woodmoor, Bent Tree/Higby and King’s Deer are Slow, Pretty Slow and Very Slow. Each of the last 3 years they have averaged less than a 47% chance of sale, and all have a year-to-date sales price that is significantly lower than the average price of all listings presently for sale. There is a 9 month supply of housing in Woodmoor, 16 months in Bent Tree and 20 months in King’s Deer. With so much of the “average” property in these areas valued at more than $500,000, the ramifications of the jumbo limit capped at $417,000 are huge: not many buyers have $80,000 or more to put down on a home. The rare, secondary financing that is available to buyers usually is no more than $50,000. So a home asking $550,000 in one of these areas will be competing with another, average-priced home. A buyer shopping in any of these areas could wield enormous leverage in terms of negotiating a lower price.

Bent Tree/Higby 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 27 22 23 14 11 10 18
Avg Price 623984 618202 752679 714000 718938 548322 662688
Expired/Failed 20 13 16 22 40 21 22
Total Units 47 35 39 36 51 31 40
Probability Sale 57% 63% 59% 39% 22% 32% 45%
Listed 15
Avg. List 870120
King’s Deer 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 28 45 30 22 21 15 27
Avg Price 553852 649716 669242 778349 613447 690833 659240
Expired/Failed 49 21 43 42 72 54 47
Total Units 77 66 73 64 93 69 74
Probability Sale 36% 68% 41% 34% 23% 22% 36%
Listed 27
Avg. List 787683
Woodmoor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 219 216 171 136 121 91 159
Avg Price 365452 413316 421580 428742 388008 393657 401793
Expired/Failed 172 111 114 153 149 142 140
Total Units 391 327 285 289 270 233 299
Probability Sale 56% 66% 60% 47% 45% 39% 53%
Listed 77
Avg. List 454801
Bent Tree/Higby 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 27 22 23 14 11 10 18
Avg Price 623984 618202 752679 714000 718938 548322 662688
Expired/Failed 20 13 16 22 40 21 22
Total Units 47 35 39 36 51 31 40
Probability Sale 57% 63% 59% 39% 22% 32% 45%
Listed 15
Avg. List 870120

AWOL Demand, Decent Supply

Three well known luxury areas have seen buyer demand dry up to the tune of a 1 in 3 probability of sale.

Upper Skyway 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 48 58 36 40 38 17 40
Avg Price 613814 620878 698243 602640 558110 569867 610592
Expired/Failed 25 35 34 58 32 35 37
Total Units 73 93 70 98 70 52 76
Probability Sale 66% 62% 51% 41% 54% 33% 52%
Listed 30
Avg. List 1136400
Cedar Heights 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 8 9 6 4 4 11 7
Avg Price 537611 600550 712333 560875 560875 544850 586182
Expired/Failed 18 9 14 20 19 20 17
Total Units 26 18 20 24 23 31 24
Probability Sale 31% 50% 30% 17% 17% 35% 30%
Listed 8
Avg. List 767112
Unviersity Park 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 29 24 22 15 15 12 20
Avg Price 502279 521746 621344 623465 629780 463813 560405
Expired/Failed 23 23 40 39 33 31 32
Total Units 52 47 62 54 48 43 51
Probability Sale 56% 51% 35% 28% 31% 28% 38%
Listed 22
Avg. List 642754

Cedar Heights is actually rebounding somewhat and has only 8 months of inventory right now. That’s reasonably low for Cedar Heights. The problem however is that the average asking price is a full $200,000 above what has been the average selling price. Recent sales have submarined values to 2004 levels and today’s buyers will likely make similar demands on the present listing inventory. Upper Skyway and Skyway Heights makes a somewhat surprising appearance. Broadmoor Bluffs and the Spires has registered a dramatically higher sales rate in 2008.  Companion neighborhoods Stratton Forest and Stratton Preserve just saw their first sale in two years last month. Perhaps it is the age of the inventory or the difficulty in access, but 2009 has not been a great year near Bear Creek Park. The most heavily impacted area by far, and possibly in the city, is University Park. University Park has a large number of million dollar dwellings and lots valued at over $250,000. However… there has been a 29% chance of sale over the last three years and the average selling price this year is well below the average in 2004. Worse news for present sellers: the average asking price is $180,000 above the average selling price year-to-date. Sellers today will very likely have to make big price concessions to move their property.

The Ultra High-End

The massive economic upheaval and how consumer values have changed (and how they have stayed the same) is readily evident in three neighborhoods known for million dollar properties. The Broadmoor and Kissing Camels are hard places to sell a home, but are showing signs in 2009 that traditional neighborhoods commonly associated with luxury (the Broadmoor) and locations with a true, one-of-a-kind location (Kissing Camels) have value, even in a bad economy. The Broadmoor Resort meanwhile shows the difficulty of selling in a true custom-home neighborhood: one man’s custom, is another man’s consolation. There is a single MLS sale recorded in the Resort this year (translates to 14.8 years worth of inventory). There are additional new homeowners this year in the Resort, but the idea of buying someone else’s home has less value when builders are willing to build “exactly” what they want… and charge less than they did four years ago.

Broadmoor Resort 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 6 17 17 9 6 1 9
Avg Price 1068448 1299786 1392895 1637777 1306333 790000 1249207
Expired/Failed 31 28 16 15 13 18 20
Total Units 37 45 33 24 19 19 30
Probability Sale 16% 38% 52% 38% 32% 5% 32%
Listed 16
Avg. List 1921875
Kissing Camels 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 12 16 24 16 6 9 14
Avg Price 736666 790402 971606 1055814 935000 826700 886031
Expired/Failed 15 19 34 21 36 32 26
Total Units 27 35 58 37 42 41 40
Probability Sale 44% 46% 41% 43% 14% 22% 35%
Listed 28
Avg. List 930487
Broadmoor 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 36 40 21 19 27 24 28
Avg Price 750302 807591 1086173 1085915 825496 673337 871469
Expired/Failed 44 37 35 45 25 29 36
Total Units 80 77 56 64 52 53 64
Probability Sale 45% 52% 38% 30% 52% 45% 44%
Listed 28
Avg. List 1420785

Where to Buy 2010, Part III: Green Light Data Edition

Wolf Ranch 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 28 111 84 80 57 52 69
Avg Price 305970 348121 394526 396895 367503 368180 363533
Expired/Failed 16 10 20 55 65 41 35
Total Units 44 121 104 135 122 93 103
Probability Sale 64% 92% 81% 59% 47% 56% 64%
Listed 30
Avg. List 371416
Skyway 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 40 43 34 25 8 26 29
Avg Price 249746 273427 333679 305375 333987 243388 289934
Expired/Failed 28 21 15 21 18 22 21
Total Units 44 64 49 46 26 48 46
Probability Sale 64% 67% 69% 54% 31% 54% 57%
Listed 11
Avg. List 331054
Pinecliff 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 23 24 13 27 15 13 19
Avg Price 345293 358016 367884 406895 384080 325053 364537
Expired/Failed 12 7 6 16 15 13 12
Total Units 35 31 19 43 30 26 31
Probability Sale 66% 77% 68% 63% 50% 50% 63%
Listed 7
Avg. List 389314
Cordera 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 21 13 18 30 21
Avg Price 402201 427005 417182 388590 408745
Expired/Failed 0 6 15 16 9
Total Units 21 19 33 46 30
Probability Sale 100% 68% 55% 65% 69%
Listed 19
Avg. List 438845
Downtown 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 137 131 156 92 108 86 118
Avg Price 186939 198821 198488 210545 196956 187402 196525
Expired/Failed 109 76 80 85 78 41 78
Total Units 44 207 236 177 186 127 197
Probability Sale 64% 63% 66% 52% 58% 68% 60%
Listed 54
Avg. List 237723
Fairfax 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 143 150 140 120 99 67 120
Avg Price 215679 251518 252542 250635 237804 247789 242661
Expired/Failed 50 42 65 72 65 63 60
Total Units 193 192 205 192 164 130 179
Probability Sale 74% 78% 68% 63% 60% 52% 67%
Listed 29
Avg. List 247096
Gatehouse 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 111 128 91 79 61 58 88
Avg Price 249826 269487 281448 287350 276485 271733 272722
Expired/Failed 59 35 30 42 53 44 44
Total Units 170 163 121 121 114 102 132
Probability Sale 65% 79% 75% 65% 54% 57% 67%
Listed 11
Avg. List 274372
Vista Grande 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 101 116 113 94 78 59 94
Avg Price 168762 187375 186714 181848 168075 162927 175950
Expired/Failed 53 30 54 59 65 41 50
Total Units 44 146 167 153 143 100 144
Probability Sale 64% 79% 68% 61% 55% 59% 65%
Listed 16
Avg. List 237325
Summerfield 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 51 53 44 55 24 18 41
Avg Price 306615 331506 392408 365449 341415 317113 342418
Expired/Failed 13 13 15 28 19 19 18
Total Units 64 66 59 83 43 37 59
Probability Sale 80% 80% 75% 66% 56% 49% 70%
Listed 3
Avg. List 354996
Wedgewood 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 29 38 48 21 17 7 27
Avg Price 247500 277220 292065 264229 252552 281877 269241
Expired/Failed 19 10 11 8 10 7 11
Total Units 44 48 59 29 27 14 37
Probability Sale 64% 79% 81% 72% 63% 50% 72%
Listed 3
Avg. List 233250
Sable Chase, Misty Meadows, BRI 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 95 119 90 87 55 56 84
Avg Price 184598 200240 206681 210392 197909 192956 198796
Expired/Failed 41 32 38 43 35 30 37
Total Units 136 151 128 130 90 86 120
Probability Sale 70% 79% 70% 67% 61% 65% 70%
Listed 12
Avg. List 211250
Wagon Trails 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 194 197 133 109 97 82 135
Avg Price 235039 244862 252418 251508 239808 233896 242922
Expired/Failed 133 67 91 91 116 47 91
Total Units 327 264 224 200 213 129 226
Probability Sale 64% 75% 59% 55% 46% 64% 60%
Listed 30
Avg. List 296418
Pinon Valley 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 53 52 54 45 35 37 46
Avg Price 229440 229645 240097 237371 250062 227110 235621
Expired/Failed 25 15 14 23 14 8 17
Total Units 78 67 68 68 49 45 63
Probability Sale 68% 78% 79% 66% 71% 82% 74%
Listed 5
Avg. List 237840
Stetson HIlls 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 203 313 355 297 297 268 289
Avg Price 194051 209000 227478 240000 235572 222201 221384
Expired/Failed 124 125 172 272 232 174 183
Total Units 327 438 527 569 529 442 472
Probability Sale 62% 71% 67% 52% 56% 61% 61%
Listed 75
Avg. List 259399
Springs Ranch 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 234 299 244 155 118 123 196
Avg Price 222269 235000 246000 237478 218691 217583 229504
Expired/Failed 116 110 120 163 133 71 119
Total Units 350 409 364 318 251 194 314
Probability Sale 67% 73% 67% 49% 47% 63% 64%
Listed 54
Avg. List 245237
Norwood 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 141 118 104 81 62 54 93
Avg Price 195322 201336 213976 215038 208335 201727 205956
Expired/Failed 94 52 57 44 50 30 55
Total Units 44 170 161 125 112 84 148
Probability Sale 64% 69% 65% 65% 55% 64% 63%
Listed 13
Avg. List 220623
Rockrimmon 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 152 133 110 103 69 54 104
Avg Price 308490 320571 352425 366151 344536 311085 333876
Expired/Failed 101 46 54 84 77 60 70
Total Units 253 179 164 187 146 114 174
Probability Sale 60% 74% 67% 55% 47% 47% 60%
Listed 26
Avg. List 388530
Contrails 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 109 99 89 67 46 41 75
Avg Price 200913 216404 222565 230572 217874 215608 217323
Expired/Failed 48 16 23 46 25 21 30
Total Units 44 115 112 113 71 62 105
Probability Sale 64% 86% 79% 59% 65% 66% 72%
Listed 11
Avg. List 220427
Mesa Heights/PV 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 44 58 44 24 33 22 38
Avg Price 198826 214456 226259 252070 201974 224381 219661
Expired/Failed 15 25 23 14 18 11 18
Total Units 44 83 67 38 51 33 55
Probability Sale 64% 70% 66% 63% 65% 67% 68%
Listed 15
Avg. List 247040
Mesa Heights/PV 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Avg
Sold 44 58 44 24 33 22 38
Avg Price 198826 214456 226259 252070 201974 224381 219661
Expired/Failed 15 25 23 14 18 11 18
Total Units 44 83 67 38 51 33 55
Probability Sale 64% 70% 66% 63% 65% 67% 68%
Listed 15
Avg. List 247040